Long-Term Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh
Bangladesh has achieved robust economic growth over the past 10 years, with real GDP growing by more than 6 percent on average each year. This paper investigates whether the country will be able to maintain such high levels of growth going forward....
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/131961485274754618/Long-term-growth-scenarios-for-Bangladesh http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25965 |
| Summary: | Bangladesh has achieved robust economic
growth over the past 10 years, with real GDP growing by more
than 6 percent on average each year. This paper investigates
whether the country will be able to maintain such high
levels of growth going forward. A simple growth model
calibrated to the Bangladesh economy is used to analyze
various growth scenarios. The main finding of the paper is
that it is crucial for the country to focus on reforms to
raise total factor productivity (TFP) growth, to sustain the
high real GDP growth seen in the recent past. The country
will fail to achieve high growth in absence of strong TFP
growth despite meeting the levels of investment as outlined
in the Seventh Five Year Plan. The model is also used to
gain insights on government debt sustainability given
different growth scenarios. The analysis highlights the
significance of meeting revenue targets in maintaining
sustainability, considering the planned expansion in expenditures. |
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