Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology

Demographic change can be a positive contributor to development at any stage of demographic transition. This paper revisits the literature on the determinants and economic impacts of demographic change, and presents a new global typology that class...

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Main Authors:	Ahmed, S. Amer, Cruz, Marcio, Quillan, Bryce, Schellekens, Philip
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:	demographic change demographic dividend economic development demographics
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/867951479745020851/Demographic-change-and-development-looking-at-challenges-and-opportunities-through-a-new-typology http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25695

id	okr-10986-25695
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-256952021-06-14T10:13:07Z Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology Ahmed, S. Amer Cruz, Marcio Quillan, Bryce Schellekens, Philip demographic change demographic dividend economic development demographics Demographic change can be a positive contributor to development at any stage of demographic transition. This paper revisits the literature on the determinants and economic impacts of demographic change, and presents a new global typology that classifies countries into four categories based on demographic characteristics and future development potential. In the first group are high-fertility, low-income countries that are lagging in many human development indicators. In the second group are mostly low- and lower-middle-income countries where fertility rates have started falling recently and where changes in age structure offer tremendous opportunity for growth in the near future. The third group comprises mostly upper-middle-income countries that experienced rapid fertility declines in the 1960s, and where working age people will be a shrinking share of the population in the coming decade. The last group is made up of mostly high-income countries that have some of the highest shares of elderly in the world, and below-replacement fertility rates since at least the 1980s. The typology helps identify development policy priorities for countries in different stages of demographic transition, and opportunities through globalization due to demographic differences between countries. 2016-12-06T22:11:58Z 2016-12-06T22:11:58Z 2016-11 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/867951479745020851/Demographic-change-and-development-looking-at-challenges-and-opportunities-through-a-new-typology http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25695 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7893 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	demographic change demographic dividend economic development demographics
spellingShingle	demographic change demographic dividend economic development demographics Ahmed, S. Amer Cruz, Marcio Quillan, Bryce Schellekens, Philip Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7893
description	Demographic change can be a positive contributor to development at any stage of demographic transition. This paper revisits the literature on the determinants and economic impacts of demographic change, and presents a new global typology that classifies countries into four categories based on demographic characteristics and future development potential. In the first group are high-fertility, low-income countries that are lagging in many human development indicators. In the second group are mostly low- and lower-middle-income countries where fertility rates have started falling recently and where changes in age structure offer tremendous opportunity for growth in the near future. The third group comprises mostly upper-middle-income countries that experienced rapid fertility declines in the 1960s, and where working age people will be a shrinking share of the population in the coming decade. The last group is made up of mostly high-income countries that have some of the highest shares of elderly in the world, and below-replacement fertility rates since at least the 1980s. The typology helps identify development policy priorities for countries in different stages of demographic transition, and opportunities through globalization due to demographic differences between countries.
format	Working Paper
author	Ahmed, S. Amer Cruz, Marcio Quillan, Bryce Schellekens, Philip
author_facet	Ahmed, S. Amer Cruz, Marcio Quillan, Bryce Schellekens, Philip
author_sort	Ahmed, S. Amer
title	Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology
title_short	Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology
title_full	Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology
title_fullStr	Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology
title_full_unstemmed	Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology
title_sort	demographic change and development : looking at challenges and opportunities through a new typology
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2016
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/867951479745020851/Demographic-change-and-development-looking-at-challenges-and-opportunities-through-a-new-typology http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25695
_version_	1764459919287779328

Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology

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