Demographic Change and Development : Looking at Challenges and Opportunities through a New Typology
Demographic change can be a positive contributor to development at any stage of demographic transition. This paper revisits the literature on the determinants and economic impacts of demographic change, and presents a new global typology that class...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/867951479745020851/Demographic-change-and-development-looking-at-challenges-and-opportunities-through-a-new-typology http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25695 |
| Summary: | Demographic change can be a positive
contributor to development at any stage of demographic
transition. This paper revisits the literature on the
determinants and economic impacts of demographic change, and
presents a new global typology that classifies countries
into four categories based on demographic characteristics
and future development potential. In the first group are
high-fertility, low-income countries that are lagging in
many human development indicators. In the second group are
mostly low- and lower-middle-income countries where
fertility rates have started falling recently and where
changes in age structure offer tremendous opportunity for
growth in the near future. The third group comprises mostly
upper-middle-income countries that experienced rapid
fertility declines in the 1960s, and where working age
people will be a shrinking share of the population in the
coming decade. The last group is made up of mostly
high-income countries that have some of the highest shares
of elderly in the world, and below-replacement fertility
rates since at least the 1980s. The typology helps identify
development policy priorities for countries in different
stages of demographic transition, and opportunities through
globalization due to demographic differences between countries. |
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