Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition
Despite record economic growth for more than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by combining a model of conflict intensi...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/10/26868027/conflict-poverty-afghanistans-transition http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25309 |
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okr-10986-253092021-04-23T14:04:29Z Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition Floreani, Vincent A. Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys Rama, Martin conflict foreign aid poverty living standards conflict intensity household consumption troop presence poverty reduction security Despite record economic growth for more than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at the household level in 2011. Provincial data show that higher levels of conflict were positively correlated with both a larger presence of troops (international and Afghan) and larger aid flows. Household data show that the negative impact of conflict on consumption was more than offset by the positive impact of aid and troops. According to the estimates, Afghan troops contributed more to poverty reduction than international troops, possibly because they spent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models to conduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing on the transition initiated in 2014. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannot account for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershed political developments. But they suggest that the reduction in the number of international troops and declining foreign aid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and a decline in consumption per capita, matching current trends. 2016-11-01T17:08:19Z 2016-11-01T17:08:19Z 2016-10 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/10/26868027/conflict-poverty-afghanistans-transition http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25309 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7864 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper South Asia Afghanistan |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
conflict foreign aid poverty living standards conflict intensity household consumption troop presence poverty reduction security |
| spellingShingle |
conflict foreign aid poverty living standards conflict intensity household consumption troop presence poverty reduction security Floreani, Vincent A. Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys Rama, Martin Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition |
| geographic_facet |
South Asia Afghanistan |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7864 |
| description |
Despite record economic growth for more
than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in
Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less
from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by
combining a model of conflict intensity at the province
level over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at the
household level in 2011. Provincial data show that higher
levels of conflict were positively correlated with both a
larger presence of troops (international and Afghan) and
larger aid flows. Household data show that the negative
impact of conflict on consumption was more than offset by
the positive impact of aid and troops. According to the
estimates, Afghan troops contributed more to poverty
reduction than international troops, possibly because they
spent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models to
conduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing on
the transition initiated in 2014. The results should be
interpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannot
account for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershed
political developments. But they suggest that the reduction
in the number of international troops and declining foreign
aid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and a
decline in consumption per capita, matching current trends. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Floreani, Vincent A. Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys Rama, Martin |
| author_facet |
Floreani, Vincent A. Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys Rama, Martin |
| author_sort |
Floreani, Vincent A. |
| title |
Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition |
| title_short |
Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition |
| title_full |
Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition |
| title_fullStr |
Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition |
| title_sort |
conflict and poverty in afghanistan's transition |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2016 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/10/26868027/conflict-poverty-afghanistans-transition http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25309 |
| _version_ |
1764458926298890240 |