On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty
Changing population age structures are shaping the trajectories of development in many countries, bringing opportunities and challenges. While aging has been a matter of concern for upper-middle and high-income economies, rapid population growth is...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/08/26738377/impact-demographic-change-growth-savings-poverty-capabilities-driving-participation-global-value-chains http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25050 |
| Summary: | Changing population age structures are
shaping the trajectories of development in many countries,
bringing opportunities and challenges. While aging has been
a matter of concern for upper-middle and high-income
economies, rapid population growth is set to continue in the
poorest countries over the coming decades. At the same time,
these countries will see sustained increases in the
working-age shares of their population, and these shifts
have the potential to boost growth and reduce poverty. This
paper describes the main mechanisms through which
demographic change may affect economic outcomes, and
estimates the association between changes in the share of
working-age population with per capita growth, savings, and
poverty rate. An increase of one percentage point in the
working-age population share is found to be associated with
an increase in gross domestic product per capita growth by
more than one percentage point, with similarly positive
effects on savings and poverty reduction. |
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