Making the Most of Demographic Change in Southern Africa
The countries of the Southern African Customs Union have relatively diverse demographic and economic starting points. These economies have the potential to realize demographic dividends and experience an acceleration in their income per capita grow...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/08/26701359/making-most-demographic-change-southern-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25043 |
| Summary: | The countries of the Southern African
Customs Union have relatively diverse demographic and
economic starting points. These economies have the potential
to realize demographic dividends and experience an
acceleration in their income per capita growth and poverty
reduction progress through forthcoming shifts in their age
structures. Between 35 and 75 percent of poverty reduction
in 2015-50 in Southern African Customs Union economies could
be attributed to demographic shifts in a business-as-usual
scenario of economic development, if employment rates are at
least maintained. The magnitude of the demographic dividends
could be greater if countries are able to achieve policy
outcomes in parallel in the areas of education,
savings-investment, and employment. Scenario analyses of
these different policy outcomes interacting with the
shifting age structures in different ways suggest
quantitatively different economic impacts despite
qualitatively similar policies. Improving educational
attainment is found to be most important in Lesotho and
Swaziland; mobilizing savings for higher investment can be
most useful for Botswana; and improving employment rates,
especially by closing gender gaps, can be most useful for
South Africa and Namibia. |
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