Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach

The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in...

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Main Authors:	Rozenberg, Julie, Hallegatte, Stephane
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:	poverty climate change shared socioeconomic pathways uncertainty inequality
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/07/26597556/modeling-impacts-climate-change-future-vietnamese-households-micro-simulation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24847

id	okr-10986-24847
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-248472021-04-23T14:04:27Z Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane poverty climate change shared socioeconomic pathways uncertainty inequality The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in Vietnam shows that the main determinant of the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030 is the income of unskilled agriculture workers, followed by redistribution policies. Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in each of the hundreds scenarios. By 2030 climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty in Vietnam in about a quarter of the scenarios, with 400,000 to more than a million people living in extreme poverty just because of climate change impacts. Those scenarios in which climate change pushes the most people into poverty are scenarios with slow structural change away from agriculture, low productivity growth in agriculture, high population growth, and low redistribution levels. Conversely, in scenarios with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change has no impact on extreme poverty, although it still has an impact on the income of the bottom 40 percent. 2016-08-09T20:38:20Z 2016-08-09T20:38:20Z 2016-07 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/07/26597556/modeling-impacts-climate-change-future-vietnamese-households-micro-simulation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24847 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7766 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper East Asia and Pacific Vietnam
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	poverty climate change shared socioeconomic pathways uncertainty inequality
spellingShingle	poverty climate change shared socioeconomic pathways uncertainty inequality Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach
geographic_facet	East Asia and Pacific Vietnam
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7766
description	The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in Vietnam shows that the main determinant of the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030 is the income of unskilled agriculture workers, followed by redistribution policies. Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in each of the hundreds scenarios. By 2030 climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty in Vietnam in about a quarter of the scenarios, with 400,000 to more than a million people living in extreme poverty just because of climate change impacts. Those scenarios in which climate change pushes the most people into poverty are scenarios with slow structural change away from agriculture, low productivity growth in agriculture, high population growth, and low redistribution levels. Conversely, in scenarios with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change has no impact on extreme poverty, although it still has an impact on the income of the bottom 40 percent.
format	Working Paper
author	Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane
author_facet	Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane
author_sort	Rozenberg, Julie
title	Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach
title_short	Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach
title_full	Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach
title_fullStr	Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach
title_full_unstemmed	Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach
title_sort	modeling the impacts of climate change on future vietnamese households : a micro-simulation approach
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2016
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/07/26597556/modeling-impacts-climate-change-future-vietnamese-households-micro-simulation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24847
_version_	1764457810583617536

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach

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