Financial Systems, Growth, and Volatility : Searching for the Perfect Fit

This paper builds on recent research examining the impact of finance on growth, looking at the effect of the financial system on volatility in gross domestic product per capita and consumption per capita growth. It also examines the impact of credi...

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Main Author: Islam, Roumeen
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
en_US
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26511057/financial-systems-growth-volatility-searching-perfect-fit
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24640
id okr-10986-24640
recordtype oai_dc
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
en_US
topic ENTERPRISE CREDIT
FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
GROWTH RATES
OUTPUT VOLATILITY
CREDIT MARKETS
MONETARY POLICY
DEPOSIT
BORROWER
CAPITA INCOME
FINANCIAL INNOVATION
ECONOMIC GROWTH
PEOPLE
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
MONETARY ECONOMICS
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL MARKETS
INCOME
INTEREST
ENROLLMENT
FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATIONS
PRIVATE CREDIT
STOCK MARKET
FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICIES
INCOME GROUP
GROWTH VOLATILITY
EQUITY MARKET
POLITICAL ECONOMY
MORTGAGE
WELFARE
MORTGAGE LENDING
ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION
BORROWERS
TRADE OPENNESS
SUBSIDY
CORRUPTION
WEALTH
SAVING
INFLATION
INTERNATIONAL BANK
FINANCIAL CREDIT
FINANCIAL FRAGILITY
LEVELS OF CREDIT
EXTERNAL FINANCE
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
STANDARD DEVIATION
SAVINGS
MORTGAGES
PER CAPITA INCOME
HOUSING FINANCE
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
MORAL HAZARD
ADVANCED ECONOMIES
HIGHER VOLATILITY
RISKY BORROWERS
CURRENT ACCOUNT
CRISIS
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
DEBT
CAPITAL MARKET
FINANCIAL CRISES
HIGH INCOME
FINANCIAL FLOWS
BUSINESS CYCLE
INCOME LEVELS
MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
FINANCIAL REFORMS
BANKERS
FLUCTUATIONS
BANK CREDIT
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
FINANCE
LIBERALIZATION
BANKS
EXPENDITURE
MORTGAGE CREDIT
EQUITY
HUMAN CAPITAL
FEDERAL RESERVE
CREDIT CONSTRAINTS
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
CAPITAL
VOLATILITY
BANKING CRISIS
LONG-RUN GROWTH
BANK
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
SYSTEMIC BANKING CRISES
CREDIT
MACROECONOMICS
LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
HOUSEHOLD
EXPENDITURES
ENTERPRISE
CAPITAL FLOWS
PROPERTIES
PRIVATE SECTOR
REAL EXCHANGE RATE
UNDERDEVELOPMENT
CAPITA GROWTH
GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET
MONETARY SHOCKS
GROWTH RELATIONSHIP
ACCESS TO CREDIT
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
FINANCIAL MARKET
MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY
INVESTMENT
BARTER
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
GROWTH REGRESSIONS
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES
CREDIT EXTENSION
HOUSEHOLDS
COLLATERAL
FINANCIAL MARKETS
FINANCIAL ASSETS
RATE OF GROWTH
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARY
EXTERNAL SHOCKS
INVESTMENTS
BORROWING
BANKING SUPERVISION
EXCHANGE RATE
RISK AVERSION
ENROLMENT RATE
BANKING CRISES
FINANCIAL SYSTEMS
CAPITAL ACCOUNT
FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
FINANCIAL DEPTH
INEQUALITY
GROWTH
spellingShingle ENTERPRISE CREDIT
FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
GROWTH RATES
OUTPUT VOLATILITY
CREDIT MARKETS
MONETARY POLICY
DEPOSIT
BORROWER
CAPITA INCOME
FINANCIAL INNOVATION
ECONOMIC GROWTH
PEOPLE
AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
MONETARY ECONOMICS
MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL MARKETS
INCOME
INTEREST
ENROLLMENT
FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATIONS
PRIVATE CREDIT
STOCK MARKET
FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICIES
INCOME GROUP
GROWTH VOLATILITY
EQUITY MARKET
POLITICAL ECONOMY
MORTGAGE
WELFARE
MORTGAGE LENDING
ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION
BORROWERS
TRADE OPENNESS
SUBSIDY
CORRUPTION
WEALTH
SAVING
INFLATION
INTERNATIONAL BANK
FINANCIAL CREDIT
FINANCIAL FRAGILITY
LEVELS OF CREDIT
EXTERNAL FINANCE
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
STANDARD DEVIATION
SAVINGS
MORTGAGES
PER CAPITA INCOME
HOUSING FINANCE
MARKET DEVELOPMENT
MORAL HAZARD
ADVANCED ECONOMIES
HIGHER VOLATILITY
RISKY BORROWERS
CURRENT ACCOUNT
CRISIS
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
DEBT
CAPITAL MARKET
FINANCIAL CRISES
HIGH INCOME
FINANCIAL FLOWS
BUSINESS CYCLE
INCOME LEVELS
MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
FINANCIAL REFORMS
BANKERS
FLUCTUATIONS
BANK CREDIT
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
FINANCE
LIBERALIZATION
BANKS
EXPENDITURE
MORTGAGE CREDIT
EQUITY
HUMAN CAPITAL
FEDERAL RESERVE
CREDIT CONSTRAINTS
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
CAPITAL
VOLATILITY
BANKING CRISIS
LONG-RUN GROWTH
BANK
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
SYSTEMIC BANKING CRISES
CREDIT
MACROECONOMICS
LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
HOUSEHOLD
EXPENDITURES
ENTERPRISE
CAPITAL FLOWS
PROPERTIES
PRIVATE SECTOR
REAL EXCHANGE RATE
UNDERDEVELOPMENT
CAPITA GROWTH
GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET
MONETARY SHOCKS
GROWTH RELATIONSHIP
ACCESS TO CREDIT
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
FINANCIAL MARKET
MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY
INVESTMENT
BARTER
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
GROWTH REGRESSIONS
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES
CREDIT EXTENSION
HOUSEHOLDS
COLLATERAL
FINANCIAL MARKETS
FINANCIAL ASSETS
RATE OF GROWTH
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARY
EXTERNAL SHOCKS
INVESTMENTS
BORROWING
BANKING SUPERVISION
EXCHANGE RATE
RISK AVERSION
ENROLMENT RATE
BANKING CRISES
FINANCIAL SYSTEMS
CAPITAL ACCOUNT
FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
FINANCIAL DEPTH
INEQUALITY
GROWTH
Islam, Roumeen
Financial Systems, Growth, and Volatility : Searching for the Perfect Fit
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7723
description This paper builds on recent research examining the impact of finance on growth, looking at the effect of the financial system on volatility in gross domestic product per capita and consumption per capita growth. It also examines the impact of credit on the composition of growth. The findings show that financial development smooths growth in gross domestic product and consumption per capita, but only up to a point. At high levels of credit, further credit is positively associated with volatility even after controlling for the quality of institutions and periods of financial crises. In large financial systems, finance may not help individuals smooth consumption volatility. The threshold at which finance's effect may be volatility enhancing may be lower than previously thought. In terms of the impact on growth, total credit (and credit to firms) has a nonlinear relationship, with rising credit supporting higher growth up to a point, beyond which the additional impact of finance on growth is negative. This can be explained by finance flowing into less productive activities (or drawing other resources into less productive activities). In addition, household credit is negatively related to manufacturing sector growth, although credit to firms has a positive relationship to manufacturing growth. This may be explained by the fact that much of household credit is used to finance the consumption (including imports) of goods and services broadly (not just manufacturing sector goods) or investment in housing.
format Working Paper
author Islam, Roumeen
author_facet Islam, Roumeen
author_sort Islam, Roumeen
title Financial Systems, Growth, and Volatility : Searching for the Perfect Fit
title_short Financial Systems, Growth, and Volatility : Searching for the Perfect Fit
title_full Financial Systems, Growth, and Volatility : Searching for the Perfect Fit
title_fullStr Financial Systems, Growth, and Volatility : Searching for the Perfect Fit
title_full_unstemmed Financial Systems, Growth, and Volatility : Searching for the Perfect Fit
title_sort financial systems, growth, and volatility : searching for the perfect fit
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2016
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26511057/financial-systems-growth-volatility-searching-perfect-fit
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24640
_version_ 1764457254093848576
spelling okr-10986-246402021-04-23T14:04:23Z Financial Systems, Growth, and Volatility : Searching for the Perfect Fit Islam, Roumeen ENTERPRISE CREDIT FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT GROWTH RATES OUTPUT VOLATILITY CREDIT MARKETS MONETARY POLICY DEPOSIT BORROWER CAPITA INCOME FINANCIAL INNOVATION ECONOMIC GROWTH PEOPLE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW CAPITAL ACCUMULATION MONETARY ECONOMICS MARKET DEVELOPMENTS GLOBAL MARKETS INCOME INTEREST ENROLLMENT FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATIONS PRIVATE CREDIT STOCK MARKET FINANCIAL SECTOR POLICIES INCOME GROUP GROWTH VOLATILITY EQUITY MARKET POLITICAL ECONOMY MORTGAGE WELFARE MORTGAGE LENDING ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION BORROWERS TRADE OPENNESS SUBSIDY CORRUPTION WEALTH SAVING INFLATION INTERNATIONAL BANK FINANCIAL CREDIT FINANCIAL FRAGILITY LEVELS OF CREDIT EXTERNAL FINANCE MACROECONOMIC STABILITY STANDARD DEVIATION SAVINGS MORTGAGES PER CAPITA INCOME HOUSING FINANCE MARKET DEVELOPMENT MORAL HAZARD ADVANCED ECONOMIES HIGHER VOLATILITY RISKY BORROWERS CURRENT ACCOUNT CRISIS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS DEBT CAPITAL MARKET FINANCIAL CRISES HIGH INCOME FINANCIAL FLOWS BUSINESS CYCLE INCOME LEVELS MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS FINANCIAL REFORMS BANKERS FLUCTUATIONS BANK CREDIT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FINANCIAL SYSTEM FINANCE LIBERALIZATION BANKS EXPENDITURE MORTGAGE CREDIT EQUITY HUMAN CAPITAL FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT CONSTRAINTS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE CAPITAL VOLATILITY BANKING CRISIS LONG-RUN GROWTH BANK FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT SYSTEMIC BANKING CRISES CREDIT MACROECONOMICS LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT INCOME DISTRIBUTION HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES ENTERPRISE CAPITAL FLOWS PROPERTIES PRIVATE SECTOR REAL EXCHANGE RATE UNDERDEVELOPMENT CAPITA GROWTH GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET MONETARY SHOCKS GROWTH RELATIONSHIP ACCESS TO CREDIT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL MARKET MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY INVESTMENT BARTER FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION GROWTH REGRESSIONS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES CREDIT EXTENSION HOUSEHOLDS COLLATERAL FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL ASSETS RATE OF GROWTH FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARY EXTERNAL SHOCKS INVESTMENTS BORROWING BANKING SUPERVISION EXCHANGE RATE RISK AVERSION ENROLMENT RATE BANKING CRISES FINANCIAL SYSTEMS CAPITAL ACCOUNT FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL DEPTH INEQUALITY GROWTH This paper builds on recent research examining the impact of finance on growth, looking at the effect of the financial system on volatility in gross domestic product per capita and consumption per capita growth. It also examines the impact of credit on the composition of growth. The findings show that financial development smooths growth in gross domestic product and consumption per capita, but only up to a point. At high levels of credit, further credit is positively associated with volatility even after controlling for the quality of institutions and periods of financial crises. In large financial systems, finance may not help individuals smooth consumption volatility. The threshold at which finance's effect may be volatility enhancing may be lower than previously thought. In terms of the impact on growth, total credit (and credit to firms) has a nonlinear relationship, with rising credit supporting higher growth up to a point, beyond which the additional impact of finance on growth is negative. This can be explained by finance flowing into less productive activities (or drawing other resources into less productive activities). In addition, household credit is negatively related to manufacturing sector growth, although credit to firms has a positive relationship to manufacturing growth. This may be explained by the fact that much of household credit is used to finance the consumption (including imports) of goods and services broadly (not just manufacturing sector goods) or investment in housing. 2016-07-07T21:35:43Z 2016-07-07T21:35:43Z 2016-06 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26511057/financial-systems-growth-volatility-searching-perfect-fit http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24640 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7723 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper