Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter?

Since the Global Financial Crisis, world trade growth has been subdued and lagging slightly behind growth of gross domestic product. Trade is growing more slowly not only because growth of global gross domestic product is lower, but also because tr...

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Main Authors:	Constantinescu, Cristina, Mattoo, Aaditya, Ruta, Michele
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:	GROWTH RATES EMPLOYMENT TRADE VOLUMES PARTICULAR COUNTRY ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCOUNTING PRODUCTION COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS STRUCTURAL CHANGE INCOME FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION EMERGING ECONOMIES EXCHANGE REAL GDP INFORMATION EXPORTS ELASTICITY DEVELOPING ECONOMIES WELFARE EFFECTS ECONOMIC POLICY VARIABLES CAPITAL STOCK GLOBAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT INPUTS REAL INCOME TRADE PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES CENTRAL BANK GROSS EXPORTS GLOBAL ECONOMY EXPORT GROWTH ADVANCED ECONOMIES VALUE‐ADDED CAPITAL FORMATION EXCHANGE RATES SPECIALIZATION LABOR PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY EMERGING MARKET EXPORT VOLUME FINANCIAL CRISES ORGANIZATIONS METAL PRODUCTS ACCESS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS IMPORTS LABOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT LIBERALIZATION MARKET ECONOMIES TRADE VOLUME COMMODITY EXPORTS DATA AVAILABILITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION VALUE ADDED KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL CRISIS FUTURE VALUE COMPETITIVENESS FIXED CAPITAL WORLD ECONOMY DIVISION OF LABOR DEMAND EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES AGGREGATE DEMAND INCOMES FIRM PERFORMANCE OPENNESS TRADE LIBERALIZATION ECONOMICS OUTPUT REGRESSION ANALYSIS DOMESTIC DEMAND SIDE EFFECTS TRADE DATA TRADE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION USE VALUE GDP GOODS THEORY GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH RATE VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION RISK INTERNATIONAL DIVISION OF LABOR DEVELOPING ECONOMY SHARE CRISES SUPPLY EXPORT VOLUMES WORLD TRADE COMMUNICATION EXCHANGE RATE AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR INTERMEDIATE INPUTS COMMODITY PRICES COMMODITY PRICES DEVELOPMENT POLICY COMPETITION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26374682/global-trade-slowdown-matter http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24512

id	okr-10986-24512
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-245122021-04-23T14:04:22Z Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter? Constantinescu, Cristina Mattoo, Aaditya Ruta, Michele GROWTH RATES EMPLOYMENT TRADE VOLUMES PARTICULAR COUNTRY ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCOUNTING PRODUCTION COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS STRUCTURAL CHANGE INCOME FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION EMERGING ECONOMIES EXCHANGE REAL GDP INFORMATION EXPORTS ELASTICITY DEVELOPING ECONOMIES WELFARE EFFECTS ECONOMIC POLICY VARIABLES CAPITAL STOCK GLOBAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT INPUTS REAL INCOME TRADE PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CENTRAL BANK GROSS EXPORTS GLOBAL ECONOMY EXPORT GROWTH REAL GDP ADVANCED ECONOMIES VALUE‐ADDED CAPITAL FORMATION EXCHANGE RATES SPECIALIZATION LABOR PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY EMERGING MARKET EXPORT VOLUME FINANCIAL CRISES ORGANIZATIONS METAL PRODUCTS ACCESS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS IMPORTS LABOR GROSS EXPORTS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT LIBERALIZATION MARKET ECONOMIES TRADE VOLUME COMMODITY EXPORTS DATA AVAILABILITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION VALUE ADDED KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL CRISIS FUTURE VALUE COMPETITIVENESS FIXED CAPITAL WORLD ECONOMY DIVISION OF LABOR DEMAND EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES AGGREGATE DEMAND INCOMES FIRM PERFORMANCE METAL PRODUCTS OPENNESS TRADE LIBERALIZATION ECONOMICS OUTPUT REGRESSION ANALYSIS DOMESTIC DEMAND SIDE EFFECTS TRADE DATA TRADE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION USE VALUE GDP GOODS THEORY GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH RATE VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION RISK INTERNATIONAL DIVISION OF LABOR DEVELOPING ECONOMY SHARE CRISES SUPPLY EXPORT VOLUMES WORLD TRADE COMMUNICATION EXCHANGE RATE AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR INTERMEDIATE INPUTS COMMODITY PRICES COMMODITY PRICES DEVELOPMENT POLICY COMPETITION Since the Global Financial Crisis, world trade growth has been subdued and lagging slightly behind growth of gross domestic product. Trade is growing more slowly not only because growth of global gross domestic product is lower, but also because trade itself has become less responsive to gross domestic product. This paper reviews the reasons behind the changing trade-income relationship, and then investigates its consequences for economic growth. On the demand side, sluggish world import growth may adversely affect individual countries' economic growth, as it limits opportunities for their exports. On the supply side, slower trade may diminish the scope for productivity growth through increasing specialization and diffusion of technologies. The paper finds preliminary evidence that the changing trade-income relationship matters, although the quantifiable effects do not appear to be large. 2016-06-13T21:43:12Z 2016-06-13T21:43:12Z 2016-05 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26374682/global-trade-slowdown-matter http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24512 English en_US Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 7673; Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7673 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	GROWTH RATES EMPLOYMENT TRADE VOLUMES PARTICULAR COUNTRY ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCOUNTING PRODUCTION COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS STRUCTURAL CHANGE INCOME FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION EMERGING ECONOMIES EXCHANGE REAL GDP INFORMATION EXPORTS ELASTICITY DEVELOPING ECONOMIES WELFARE EFFECTS ECONOMIC POLICY VARIABLES CAPITAL STOCK GLOBAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT INPUTS REAL INCOME TRADE PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CENTRAL BANK GROSS EXPORTS GLOBAL ECONOMY EXPORT GROWTH REAL GDP ADVANCED ECONOMIES VALUE‐ADDED CAPITAL FORMATION EXCHANGE RATES SPECIALIZATION LABOR PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY EMERGING MARKET EXPORT VOLUME FINANCIAL CRISES ORGANIZATIONS METAL PRODUCTS ACCESS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS IMPORTS LABOR GROSS EXPORTS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT LIBERALIZATION MARKET ECONOMIES TRADE VOLUME COMMODITY EXPORTS DATA AVAILABILITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION VALUE ADDED KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL CRISIS FUTURE VALUE COMPETITIVENESS FIXED CAPITAL WORLD ECONOMY DIVISION OF LABOR DEMAND EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES AGGREGATE DEMAND INCOMES FIRM PERFORMANCE METAL PRODUCTS OPENNESS TRADE LIBERALIZATION ECONOMICS OUTPUT REGRESSION ANALYSIS DOMESTIC DEMAND SIDE EFFECTS TRADE DATA TRADE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION USE VALUE GDP GOODS THEORY GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH RATE VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION RISK INTERNATIONAL DIVISION OF LABOR DEVELOPING ECONOMY SHARE CRISES SUPPLY EXPORT VOLUMES WORLD TRADE COMMUNICATION EXCHANGE RATE AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR INTERMEDIATE INPUTS COMMODITY PRICES COMMODITY PRICES DEVELOPMENT POLICY COMPETITION
spellingShingle	GROWTH RATES EMPLOYMENT TRADE VOLUMES PARTICULAR COUNTRY ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCOUNTING PRODUCTION COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS STRUCTURAL CHANGE INCOME FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION EMERGING ECONOMIES EXCHANGE REAL GDP INFORMATION EXPORTS ELASTICITY DEVELOPING ECONOMIES WELFARE EFFECTS ECONOMIC POLICY VARIABLES CAPITAL STOCK GLOBAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT INPUTS REAL INCOME TRADE PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CENTRAL BANK GROSS EXPORTS GLOBAL ECONOMY EXPORT GROWTH REAL GDP ADVANCED ECONOMIES VALUE‐ADDED CAPITAL FORMATION EXCHANGE RATES SPECIALIZATION LABOR PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY EMERGING MARKET EXPORT VOLUME FINANCIAL CRISES ORGANIZATIONS METAL PRODUCTS ACCESS INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS IMPORTS LABOR GROSS EXPORTS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT LIBERALIZATION MARKET ECONOMIES TRADE VOLUME COMMODITY EXPORTS DATA AVAILABILITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION VALUE ADDED KNOWLEDGE SPILLOVERS INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE FINANCIAL CRISIS FUTURE VALUE COMPETITIVENESS FIXED CAPITAL WORLD ECONOMY DIVISION OF LABOR DEMAND EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES AGGREGATE DEMAND INCOMES FIRM PERFORMANCE METAL PRODUCTS OPENNESS TRADE LIBERALIZATION ECONOMICS OUTPUT REGRESSION ANALYSIS DOMESTIC DEMAND SIDE EFFECTS TRADE DATA TRADE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION USE VALUE GDP GOODS THEORY GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH RATE VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION RISK INTERNATIONAL DIVISION OF LABOR DEVELOPING ECONOMY SHARE CRISES SUPPLY EXPORT VOLUMES WORLD TRADE COMMUNICATION EXCHANGE RATE AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR INTERMEDIATE INPUTS COMMODITY PRICES COMMODITY PRICES DEVELOPMENT POLICY COMPETITION Constantinescu, Cristina Mattoo, Aaditya Ruta, Michele Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter?
relation	Policy Research working paper,no. WPS 7673;
description	Since the Global Financial Crisis, world trade growth has been subdued and lagging slightly behind growth of gross domestic product. Trade is growing more slowly not only because growth of global gross domestic product is lower, but also because trade itself has become less responsive to gross domestic product. This paper reviews the reasons behind the changing trade-income relationship, and then investigates its consequences for economic growth. On the demand side, sluggish world import growth may adversely affect individual countries' economic growth, as it limits opportunities for their exports. On the supply side, slower trade may diminish the scope for productivity growth through increasing specialization and diffusion of technologies. The paper finds preliminary evidence that the changing trade-income relationship matters, although the quantifiable effects do not appear to be large.
format	Working Paper
author	Constantinescu, Cristina Mattoo, Aaditya Ruta, Michele
author_facet	Constantinescu, Cristina Mattoo, Aaditya Ruta, Michele
author_sort	Constantinescu, Cristina
title	Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter?
title_short	Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter?
title_full	Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter?
title_fullStr	Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter?
title_full_unstemmed	Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter?
title_sort	does the global trade slowdown matter?
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2016
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26374682/global-trade-slowdown-matter http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24512
_version_	1764456914384584704

Does the Global Trade Slowdown Matter?

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