China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper explores the economic impacts of two related tracks of China's expected transformation—economic slowdown and rebalancing away from investment toward consumption—and estimates the spillovers for the rest of the world, with a special...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26362958/chinas-slowdown-rebalancing-potential-growth-poverty-impacts-sub-saharan-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24506 |
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okr-10986-24506 |
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oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
GROWTH RATES GROWTH RATE FINANCIAL SERVICES LINES OF CREDIT CUSTOMS UNION FUTURE GROWTH GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES URBANIZATION PRODUCTION PRICE INCREASES PRICE DISTORTIONS TRADE BALANCE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION INTEREST INCOME CONSUMER GOODS FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS INVESTMENT POLICIES EMERGING ECONOMIES REAL GDP EXCHANGE CONSUMER GOODS GDP PER CAPITA DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EXPORTS ELASTICITY DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME ECONOMIC RELATIONS DISTRIBUTION EQUILIBRIUM FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS VARIABLES CAPITAL STOCK PRICE INPUTS WEALTH SAVING MARKET ACCESS DATA AVAILABILITY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FREE TRADE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TRENDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEVELOPMENT FOREIGN MARKETS LABOR MARKET PRIVATE SAVING TRADE BALANCE SAVINGS TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE GLOBAL ECONOMY USE VALUE PER CAPITA INCOME DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY ECONOMETRIC MODELS TELECOMMUNICATIONS REAL GDP ADVANCED ECONOMIES PER CAPITA INCOME VALUE‐ADDED TRADE RELATIONS NATURAL RESOURCES INDUSTRIALIZATION ECONOMETRIC MODELS GLOBALIZATION TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PRICE DECLINES MARKETS WTO POTENTIAL OUTPUT ECONOMIC REFORMS TRADE POLICY TARIFF BARRIERS ECONOMIC MODELS ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION NATURAL RESOURCES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DOUBLE TAXATION CONSUMER DEMAND SUBSIDIES COMMODITY PRICE TAXES LDCS DOUBLE TAXATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT UNEMPLOYMENT INVESTMENT POLICY EMERGING MARKETS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH DATA AVAILABILITY CONSUMPTION VALUE ADDED LINES OF CREDIT WAGES TRANSPARENCY BARRIERS POTENTIAL OUTPUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FINANCIAL CRISIS FUTURE VALUE COMPETITIVENESS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CREDIT FIXED CAPITAL WORLD ECONOMY DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES FOREIGN INVESTMENT DEMAND LABOR FORCE GROWTH COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AGGREGATE DEMAND DIVIDEND CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE ECONOMY FREE TRADE TARIFF BARRIERS SHARES BENCHMARK INVESTMENT POLICY ECONOMIC MODELS OUTPUT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT GOVERNANCE INSURANCE EXPOSURE BUSINESS CYCLES TAXATION COMMODITY PRICES TRADE FUTURE STUDIES USE VALUE GDP FINANCIAL CRISIS GOODS MARKET SHARE GROWTH RATE BILATERAL TRADE INVESTMENT BUSINESS CLIMATE NATURAL RESOURCE EXTREME POVERTY SHARE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES FINANCIAL MARKETS TRADE RELATIONS DEVELOPMENT FINANCE COMMUNICATION VALUE ADDED ECONOMIC HISTORY GDP PER CAPITA COMMODITIES EXCHANGE RATE MIDDLE‐INCOME COUNTRIES DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMIC RELATIONS FOOD PRICES CAPITAL INVESTMENT ADVANCED ECONOMIES COMMODITY PRICES COMMODITY POSITIVE EFFECTS GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS PRICES DEVELOPMENT POLICY |
| spellingShingle |
GROWTH RATES GROWTH RATE FINANCIAL SERVICES LINES OF CREDIT CUSTOMS UNION FUTURE GROWTH GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES URBANIZATION PRODUCTION PRICE INCREASES PRICE DISTORTIONS TRADE BALANCE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION INTEREST INCOME CONSUMER GOODS FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS INVESTMENT POLICIES EMERGING ECONOMIES REAL GDP EXCHANGE CONSUMER GOODS GDP PER CAPITA DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EXPORTS ELASTICITY DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME ECONOMIC RELATIONS DISTRIBUTION EQUILIBRIUM FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS VARIABLES CAPITAL STOCK PRICE INPUTS WEALTH SAVING MARKET ACCESS DATA AVAILABILITY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FREE TRADE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TRENDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEVELOPMENT FOREIGN MARKETS LABOR MARKET PRIVATE SAVING TRADE BALANCE SAVINGS TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE GLOBAL ECONOMY USE VALUE PER CAPITA INCOME DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY ECONOMETRIC MODELS TELECOMMUNICATIONS REAL GDP ADVANCED ECONOMIES PER CAPITA INCOME VALUE‐ADDED TRADE RELATIONS NATURAL RESOURCES INDUSTRIALIZATION ECONOMETRIC MODELS GLOBALIZATION TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PRICE DECLINES MARKETS WTO POTENTIAL OUTPUT ECONOMIC REFORMS TRADE POLICY TARIFF BARRIERS ECONOMIC MODELS ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION NATURAL RESOURCES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DOUBLE TAXATION CONSUMER DEMAND SUBSIDIES COMMODITY PRICE TAXES LDCS DOUBLE TAXATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT UNEMPLOYMENT INVESTMENT POLICY EMERGING MARKETS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH DATA AVAILABILITY CONSUMPTION VALUE ADDED LINES OF CREDIT WAGES TRANSPARENCY BARRIERS POTENTIAL OUTPUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FINANCIAL CRISIS FUTURE VALUE COMPETITIVENESS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CREDIT FIXED CAPITAL WORLD ECONOMY DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES FOREIGN INVESTMENT DEMAND LABOR FORCE GROWTH COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AGGREGATE DEMAND DIVIDEND CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE ECONOMY FREE TRADE TARIFF BARRIERS SHARES BENCHMARK INVESTMENT POLICY ECONOMIC MODELS OUTPUT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT GOVERNANCE INSURANCE EXPOSURE BUSINESS CYCLES TAXATION COMMODITY PRICES TRADE FUTURE STUDIES USE VALUE GDP FINANCIAL CRISIS GOODS MARKET SHARE GROWTH RATE BILATERAL TRADE INVESTMENT BUSINESS CLIMATE NATURAL RESOURCE EXTREME POVERTY SHARE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES FINANCIAL MARKETS TRADE RELATIONS DEVELOPMENT FINANCE COMMUNICATION VALUE ADDED ECONOMIC HISTORY GDP PER CAPITA COMMODITIES EXCHANGE RATE MIDDLE‐INCOME COUNTRIES DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMIC RELATIONS FOOD PRICES CAPITAL INVESTMENT ADVANCED ECONOMIES COMMODITY PRICES COMMODITY POSITIVE EFFECTS GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS PRICES DEVELOPMENT POLICY Lakatos, Csilla Maliszewska, Maryla Osorio-Rodarte, Israel Go, Delfin China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa |
| geographic_facet |
Africa East Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa China |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7666 |
| description |
This paper explores the economic impacts
of two related tracks of China's expected
transformation—economic slowdown and rebalancing away from
investment toward consumption—and estimates the spillovers
for the rest of the world, with a special focus on
Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper finds that an
average annual slowdown of gross domestic product in China
of 1 percent over 2016–30 is expected to result in a decline
of gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.1
percent and globally by 0.6 percent relative to the past
trends scenario by 2030. However, if China's
transformation also entails substantial rebalancing, the
negative income effects of the economic slowdown could be
offset by the positive changes brought along by rebalancing
through higher overall imports by China and positive terms
of trade effects for its trading partners. If global supply
responds positively to the shifts in relative prices and the
new sources of consumer demand from China, a substantial
rebalancing in China could have an overall favorable impact
on the global economy. Economic growth could turn positive
and higher on average, by 6 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa
and 5.5 percent globally, as compared with the past trends
scenario. Finally, rebalancing reduces the prevalence of
poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the isolated
negative effects of China's slowdown, which slightly
increase the incidence of poverty. Overall, China's
slowdown and rebalancing combined are estimated to increase
gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 4.7 percent
by 2030 and reduce poverty, but the extent of this varies by country. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Lakatos, Csilla Maliszewska, Maryla Osorio-Rodarte, Israel Go, Delfin |
| author_facet |
Lakatos, Csilla Maliszewska, Maryla Osorio-Rodarte, Israel Go, Delfin |
| author_sort |
Lakatos, Csilla |
| title |
China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_short |
China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full |
China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_fullStr |
China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed |
China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_sort |
china's slowdown and rebalancing : potential growth and poverty impacts on sub-saharan africa |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2016 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26362958/chinas-slowdown-rebalancing-potential-growth-poverty-impacts-sub-saharan-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24506 |
| _version_ |
1764456898871951360 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-245062021-04-23T14:04:22Z China's Slowdown and Rebalancing : Potential Growth and Poverty Impacts on Sub-Saharan Africa Lakatos, Csilla Maliszewska, Maryla Osorio-Rodarte, Israel Go, Delfin GROWTH RATES GROWTH RATE FINANCIAL SERVICES LINES OF CREDIT CUSTOMS UNION FUTURE GROWTH GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES URBANIZATION PRODUCTION PRICE INCREASES PRICE DISTORTIONS TRADE BALANCE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION INTEREST INCOME CONSUMER GOODS FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS INVESTMENT POLICIES EMERGING ECONOMIES REAL GDP EXCHANGE CONSUMER GOODS GDP PER CAPITA DEVELOPING COUNTRIES EXPORTS ELASTICITY DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME ECONOMIC RELATIONS DISTRIBUTION EQUILIBRIUM FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS VARIABLES CAPITAL STOCK PRICE INPUTS WEALTH SAVING MARKET ACCESS DATA AVAILABILITY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FREE TRADE FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TRENDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEVELOPMENT FOREIGN MARKETS LABOR MARKET PRIVATE SAVING TRADE BALANCE SAVINGS TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE GLOBAL ECONOMY USE VALUE PER CAPITA INCOME DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY ECONOMETRIC MODELS TELECOMMUNICATIONS REAL GDP ADVANCED ECONOMIES PER CAPITA INCOME VALUE‐ADDED TRADE RELATIONS NATURAL RESOURCES INDUSTRIALIZATION ECONOMETRIC MODELS GLOBALIZATION TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PRICE DECLINES MARKETS WTO POTENTIAL OUTPUT ECONOMIC REFORMS TRADE POLICY TARIFF BARRIERS ECONOMIC MODELS ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION NATURAL RESOURCES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT DOUBLE TAXATION CONSUMER DEMAND SUBSIDIES COMMODITY PRICE TAXES LDCS DOUBLE TAXATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT UNEMPLOYMENT INVESTMENT POLICY EMERGING MARKETS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH DATA AVAILABILITY CONSUMPTION VALUE ADDED LINES OF CREDIT WAGES TRANSPARENCY BARRIERS POTENTIAL OUTPUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FINANCIAL CRISIS FUTURE VALUE COMPETITIVENESS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CREDIT FIXED CAPITAL WORLD ECONOMY DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES FOREIGN INVESTMENT DEMAND LABOR FORCE GROWTH COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AGGREGATE DEMAND DIVIDEND CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE ECONOMY FREE TRADE TARIFF BARRIERS SHARES BENCHMARK INVESTMENT POLICY ECONOMIC MODELS OUTPUT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT GOVERNANCE INSURANCE EXPOSURE BUSINESS CYCLES TAXATION COMMODITY PRICES TRADE FUTURE STUDIES USE VALUE GDP FINANCIAL CRISIS GOODS MARKET SHARE GROWTH RATE BILATERAL TRADE INVESTMENT BUSINESS CLIMATE NATURAL RESOURCE EXTREME POVERTY SHARE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES FINANCIAL MARKETS TRADE RELATIONS DEVELOPMENT FINANCE COMMUNICATION VALUE ADDED ECONOMIC HISTORY GDP PER CAPITA COMMODITIES EXCHANGE RATE MIDDLE‐INCOME COUNTRIES DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMIC RELATIONS FOOD PRICES CAPITAL INVESTMENT ADVANCED ECONOMIES COMMODITY PRICES COMMODITY POSITIVE EFFECTS GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS PRICES DEVELOPMENT POLICY This paper explores the economic impacts of two related tracks of China's expected transformation—economic slowdown and rebalancing away from investment toward consumption—and estimates the spillovers for the rest of the world, with a special focus on Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper finds that an average annual slowdown of gross domestic product in China of 1 percent over 2016–30 is expected to result in a decline of gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.1 percent and globally by 0.6 percent relative to the past trends scenario by 2030. However, if China's transformation also entails substantial rebalancing, the negative income effects of the economic slowdown could be offset by the positive changes brought along by rebalancing through higher overall imports by China and positive terms of trade effects for its trading partners. If global supply responds positively to the shifts in relative prices and the new sources of consumer demand from China, a substantial rebalancing in China could have an overall favorable impact on the global economy. Economic growth could turn positive and higher on average, by 6 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and 5.5 percent globally, as compared with the past trends scenario. Finally, rebalancing reduces the prevalence of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the isolated negative effects of China's slowdown, which slightly increase the incidence of poverty. Overall, China's slowdown and rebalancing combined are estimated to increase gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 4.7 percent by 2030 and reduce poverty, but the extent of this varies by country. 2016-06-13T21:17:17Z 2016-06-13T21:17:17Z 2016-05 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26362958/chinas-slowdown-rebalancing-potential-growth-poverty-impacts-sub-saharan-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24506 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7666 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa East Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa China |