Investing in Disaster Risk Management in an Uncertain Climate
Climate change will exacerbate the challenges associated with environmental conditions, especially weather variability and extremes, in developing countries. These challenges play important, if as yet poorly understood roles in the development pros...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/04/26212121/investing-disaster-risk-management-uncertain-climate http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24204 |
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okr-10986-24204 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English en_US |
| topic |
LOCAL TEMPERATURE VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES FINANCIAL SERVICES UNCERTAINTIES ECONOMIC GROWTH TEMPERATURE EXTREME TEMPERATURES MONETARY ECONOMICS WIND SPEED INCOME RAINFALL PATTERNS DRAINAGE SYSTEMS STORMS METEOROLOGY WIND EMISSIONS EXTREME SCENARIOS RAINFALL EVENTS INTENSE RAINFALL CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY CLIMATE EVENTS INCENTIVES CLIMATE ENVELOPE MODELS OCEAN BASINS DAMAGES TEMPORAL SCALE UNCERTAIN CLIMATE FUTURE ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREME WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CLIMATIC CONDITIONS SCENARIOS TEMPORAL SCALES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EFFICIENCY GAINS UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ICE AGES RAINFALL INTENSITY MARKETS RAINFALL CLIMATIC DISASTERS ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE CLIMATE MODEL CLIMATE SCENARIO CYCLONES BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES CLIMATE HAZARDS CLIMATE PREDICTION ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS CLIMATE MODELS EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE HAZARDS EXTREME CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE PREDICTIONS FINANCE LAND USE INVESTMENT DECISIONS CLIMATE VARIABILITY FLOOD INSURANCE CONSUMPTION CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE ECONOMIC COSTS POLICIES CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARD VALUE POLICY MAKERS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS EXTREME EVENTS GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES CLIMATE APPLIED METEOROLOGY DEMAND CLIMATE RISK CLIMATE SYSTEM SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABLE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT CLIMATE RISKS CLIMATE SENSITIVE DEEP UNCERTAINTY MARKET FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMIC THEORY ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE POLICY ECONOMIC ANALYSES UNCERTAIN FUTURE CLIMATE CLIMATE OUTCOMES INSURANCE INVESTMENT STRATEGIES CLIMATIC CHANGE PROBABILITY DENSITY OCEANS SEA-LEVEL RISE ECONOMIC IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE WIND SPEEDS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FINANCIAL MARKETS ICE TROPICAL CYCLONES ALLOCATION CLIMATE EXTREMES TEMPERATURES EXTERNAL SHOCKS CLIMATE PROJECTIONS INVESTMENTS RISK MANAGEMENT CLIMATE POLICY SEA-LEVEL COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS HEALTH OF CLIMATE EXTREMES ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS CLIMATE INFORMATION CLIMATE HAZARD GLOBAL TEMPERATURES RAINFALL VARIABILITY CLIMATIC VARIABILITY SEASONS ESTIMATES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREME WEATHER EVENT UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE PROJECTIONS BENEFITS GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL |
| spellingShingle |
LOCAL TEMPERATURE VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES FINANCIAL SERVICES UNCERTAINTIES ECONOMIC GROWTH TEMPERATURE EXTREME TEMPERATURES MONETARY ECONOMICS WIND SPEED INCOME RAINFALL PATTERNS DRAINAGE SYSTEMS STORMS METEOROLOGY WIND EMISSIONS EXTREME SCENARIOS RAINFALL EVENTS INTENSE RAINFALL CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY CLIMATE EVENTS INCENTIVES CLIMATE ENVELOPE MODELS OCEAN BASINS DAMAGES TEMPORAL SCALE UNCERTAIN CLIMATE FUTURE ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREME WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CLIMATIC CONDITIONS SCENARIOS TEMPORAL SCALES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EFFICIENCY GAINS UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ICE AGES RAINFALL INTENSITY MARKETS RAINFALL CLIMATIC DISASTERS ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE CLIMATE MODEL CLIMATE SCENARIO CYCLONES BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES CLIMATE HAZARDS CLIMATE PREDICTION ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS CLIMATE MODELS EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE HAZARDS EXTREME CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE PREDICTIONS FINANCE LAND USE INVESTMENT DECISIONS CLIMATE VARIABILITY FLOOD INSURANCE CONSUMPTION CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE ECONOMIC COSTS POLICIES CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARD VALUE POLICY MAKERS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS EXTREME EVENTS GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES CLIMATE APPLIED METEOROLOGY DEMAND CLIMATE RISK CLIMATE SYSTEM SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABLE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT CLIMATE RISKS CLIMATE SENSITIVE DEEP UNCERTAINTY MARKET FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMIC THEORY ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE POLICY ECONOMIC ANALYSES UNCERTAIN FUTURE CLIMATE CLIMATE OUTCOMES INSURANCE INVESTMENT STRATEGIES CLIMATIC CHANGE PROBABILITY DENSITY OCEANS SEA-LEVEL RISE ECONOMIC IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE WIND SPEEDS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FINANCIAL MARKETS ICE TROPICAL CYCLONES ALLOCATION CLIMATE EXTREMES TEMPERATURES EXTERNAL SHOCKS CLIMATE PROJECTIONS INVESTMENTS RISK MANAGEMENT CLIMATE POLICY SEA-LEVEL COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS HEALTH OF CLIMATE EXTREMES ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS CLIMATE INFORMATION CLIMATE HAZARD GLOBAL TEMPERATURES RAINFALL VARIABILITY CLIMATIC VARIABILITY SEASONS ESTIMATES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREME WEATHER EVENT UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE PROJECTIONS BENEFITS GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL McDermott, Thomas K.J. Investing in Disaster Risk Management in an Uncertain Climate |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7631 |
| description |
Climate change will exacerbate the
challenges associated with environmental conditions,
especially weather variability and extremes, in developing
countries. These challenges play important, if as yet poorly
understood roles in the development prospects of affected
regions. As such, climate change reinforces the development
case for investment in disaster risk management. Uncertainty
about how climate change will affect particular locations
makes optimal investment planning more difficult. In
particular, the inability to derive meaningful probabilities
from climate models limits the usefulness of standard
project evaluation techniques, such as cost-benefit
analysis. Although the deep uncertainty associated with
climate change complicates disaster risk management
investment decisions, the analysis presented here shows that
these considerations are only relevant for a relatively
limited set of investment circumstances. The paper offers a
simple decision framework that enables policy makers to
identify the particular circumstances under which
uncertainty about future climate change becomes critical for
disaster risk management investment decisions. Accounting
for climate uncertainty is likely to shift the optimal
balance of disaster risk management strategies toward more
flexible, low-regret type interventions, especially those
that seek to promote "development first" or
"risk-coping" objectives. Such investments are
likely to confer additional development dividends,
regardless of the climate future that materializes in a
given location. Importantly, the analysis here also
demonstrates that climate uncertainty does not necessarily
motivate a "wait and see" approach. Instead, where
opportunities exist to avail of adaptation co-benefits,
climate uncertainty provides additional motivation for early
investment in disaster risk management initiatives. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
McDermott, Thomas K.J. |
| author_facet |
McDermott, Thomas K.J. |
| author_sort |
McDermott, Thomas K.J. |
| title |
Investing in Disaster Risk Management in an Uncertain Climate |
| title_short |
Investing in Disaster Risk Management in an Uncertain Climate |
| title_full |
Investing in Disaster Risk Management in an Uncertain Climate |
| title_fullStr |
Investing in Disaster Risk Management in an Uncertain Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Investing in Disaster Risk Management in an Uncertain Climate |
| title_sort |
investing in disaster risk management in an uncertain climate |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2016 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/04/26212121/investing-disaster-risk-management-uncertain-climate http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24204 |
| _version_ |
1764455922995822592 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-242042021-04-23T14:04:20Z Investing in Disaster Risk Management in an Uncertain Climate McDermott, Thomas K.J. LOCAL TEMPERATURE VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES FINANCIAL SERVICES UNCERTAINTIES ECONOMIC GROWTH TEMPERATURE EXTREME TEMPERATURES MONETARY ECONOMICS WIND SPEED INCOME RAINFALL PATTERNS DRAINAGE SYSTEMS STORMS METEOROLOGY WIND EMISSIONS EXTREME SCENARIOS RAINFALL EVENTS INTENSE RAINFALL CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY CLIMATE EVENTS INCENTIVES CLIMATE ENVELOPE MODELS OCEAN BASINS DAMAGES TEMPORAL SCALE UNCERTAIN CLIMATE FUTURE ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREME WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CLIMATIC CONDITIONS SCENARIOS TEMPORAL SCALES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EFFICIENCY GAINS UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ICE AGES RAINFALL INTENSITY MARKETS RAINFALL CLIMATIC DISASTERS ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE CLIMATE MODEL CLIMATE SCENARIO CYCLONES BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES CLIMATE HAZARDS CLIMATE PREDICTION ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS CLIMATE MODELS EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE HAZARDS EXTREME CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE PREDICTIONS FINANCE LAND USE INVESTMENT DECISIONS CLIMATE VARIABILITY FLOOD INSURANCE CONSUMPTION CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE ECONOMIC COSTS POLICIES CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARD VALUE POLICY MAKERS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS EXTREME EVENTS GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES CLIMATE APPLIED METEOROLOGY DEMAND CLIMATE RISK CLIMATE SYSTEM SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABLE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT CLIMATE RISKS CLIMATE SENSITIVE DEEP UNCERTAINTY MARKET FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMIC THEORY ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE POLICY ECONOMIC ANALYSES UNCERTAIN FUTURE CLIMATE CLIMATE OUTCOMES INSURANCE INVESTMENT STRATEGIES CLIMATIC CHANGE PROBABILITY DENSITY OCEANS SEA-LEVEL RISE ECONOMIC IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE WIND SPEEDS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FINANCIAL MARKETS ICE TROPICAL CYCLONES ALLOCATION CLIMATE EXTREMES TEMPERATURES EXTERNAL SHOCKS CLIMATE PROJECTIONS INVESTMENTS RISK MANAGEMENT CLIMATE POLICY SEA-LEVEL COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS HEALTH OF CLIMATE EXTREMES ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS CLIMATE INFORMATION CLIMATE HAZARD GLOBAL TEMPERATURES RAINFALL VARIABILITY CLIMATIC VARIABILITY SEASONS ESTIMATES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREME WEATHER EVENT UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE PROJECTIONS BENEFITS GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL Climate change will exacerbate the challenges associated with environmental conditions, especially weather variability and extremes, in developing countries. These challenges play important, if as yet poorly understood roles in the development prospects of affected regions. As such, climate change reinforces the development case for investment in disaster risk management. Uncertainty about how climate change will affect particular locations makes optimal investment planning more difficult. In particular, the inability to derive meaningful probabilities from climate models limits the usefulness of standard project evaluation techniques, such as cost-benefit analysis. Although the deep uncertainty associated with climate change complicates disaster risk management investment decisions, the analysis presented here shows that these considerations are only relevant for a relatively limited set of investment circumstances. The paper offers a simple decision framework that enables policy makers to identify the particular circumstances under which uncertainty about future climate change becomes critical for disaster risk management investment decisions. Accounting for climate uncertainty is likely to shift the optimal balance of disaster risk management strategies toward more flexible, low-regret type interventions, especially those that seek to promote "development first" or "risk-coping" objectives. Such investments are likely to confer additional development dividends, regardless of the climate future that materializes in a given location. Importantly, the analysis here also demonstrates that climate uncertainty does not necessarily motivate a "wait and see" approach. Instead, where opportunities exist to avail of adaptation co-benefits, climate uncertainty provides additional motivation for early investment in disaster risk management initiatives. 2016-05-04T15:52:13Z 2016-05-04T15:52:13Z 2016-04 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/04/26212121/investing-disaster-risk-management-uncertain-climate http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24204 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7631 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |