Global Migration Revisited : Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration

This paper re-examines the development implications of international migration focusing on two issues: how the costs and benefits of migration change over time, and the significance of South-South migration for development. First, the analysis find...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Ahmed, S. Amer, Go, Delfin S., Willenbockel, Dirk
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:	EMPLOYMENT INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS FUTURE GROWTH WORKFORCE POPULATION DECLINE ECONOMIC GROWTH BRAIN DRAIN ACCOUNTING IMPERFECT SUBSTITUTES WORKING-AGE POPULATION PRODUCTION SKILLED WORKERS STOCK INCOME REMITTANCE REAL GDP POPULATION FACTS GDP PER CAPITA RESOURCE ALLOCATION LABOR FORCE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ELASTICITY MONITORING PUBLIC SERVICES IMMIGRANTS POLITICAL ECONOMY WELFARE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS RETURN MIGRATION EFFECTS WAGE INCREASES INCENTIVES EQUILIBRIUM POLICY DISCUSSIONS MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY REAL INCOME INPUTS DEVELOPMENT GOALS REAL WAGES SKILLED MIGRANTS PAYMENTS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS TRENDS KNOWLEDGE NATIVE WORKERS BENEFITS OF MIGRATION DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INFLUENCE LABOR EFFICIENCY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS MIGRANT LABOR LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES HOST COUNTRIES CONSEQUENCES OF MIGRATION AGE POPULATIONS PRODUCTIVITY LABOR PRODUCTIVITY EXTERNALITIES MIGRATION TRANSFERS MARKETS HOUSEHOLD INCOME ORGANIZATIONS POTENTIAL OUTPUT LABOR ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENTS MIGRANTS WORKING- AGE POPULATIONS GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT EFFICIENCY WORKING-AGE POPULATIONS PROGRESS MIGRATION FLOWS UNEMPLOYMENT GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM HUMAN CAPITAL MIGRANT VALUE ADDED ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE CAPITAL WAGES POLICIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS LABOR DEMAND POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER VALUE WAGE RATES SKILL LEVEL PURCHASING POWER DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE DEMAND INTERNATIONAL MIGRANT AGRICULTURE MIGRANT WORKERS POPULATIONS LABOR MOBILITY MIGRANT-SENDING COUNTRIES BENCHMARK TRADE LIBERALIZATION ECONOMICS POLICY SKILLED LABOR INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS MIGRATION POLICIES SOCIAL AFFAIRS TRADE REGIONAL AGGREGATION ECONOMIC INTEGRATION GDP GOODS THEORY SECURITY BILATERAL TRADE INVESTMENT NATURAL RESOURCE WORLD POPULATION HOST COUNTRY IMMIGRATION SUPPLY WAGE DIFFERENTIALS POPULATION LABOR SUPPLY PURCHASING POWER PARITY MIGRANT POPULATIONS POLICY RESEARCH UNSKILLED WORKERS NATIONAL ORIGIN BENCHMARK DATA AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN LABOUR REMITTANCES CONSUMPTION LEVELS LABOR MARKETS LABOR FORCES UNSKILLED LABOR PRICES GROWTH PROJECTIONS LABOR MIGRATION HUMAN DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT POLICY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/04/26208170/global-migration-revisited-short-term-pains-long-term-gains-potential-south-south-migration http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24200

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Summary:	This paper re-examines the development implications of international migration focusing on two issues: how the costs and benefits of migration change over time, and the significance of South-South migration for development. First, the analysis finds that although greater migration could push down the wages of native workers of advanced countries in the short run, these wages eventually recover. This pattern would be mostly caused by the beneficial effect of additional labor on the real returns on capital and fostering faster capital formation. Additional South-North migration could favor capital income recipients and reduces labor income in host regions in the short run. In contrast, in sending countries, capital owners could experience lower incomes while wages rise. Globally, the welfare gains of new migrants could be expected to exceed the losses of old migrants by a wide margin. The remaining natives in sending countries could enjoy a net increase in remittances as well as an increase in labor income, although income from capital might decline. Second, in a hypothetical scenario with lower South-South migration, the implied losses of remittance income could lead to substantially lower welfare in developing countries. Although the wage differentials among developing countries tend to be smaller relative to their wage differentials with high-income countries, South-South migrants make substantial contributions to remittances.

Global Migration Revisited : Short-Term Pains, Long-Term Gains, and the Potential of South-South Migration

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