Price Seasonality in Africa : Measurement and Extent

Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving averag...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Gilbert, Christopher L., Christiaensen, Luc, Kaminski, Jonathan
Format: Working Paper
Language:English
en_US
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:
WEB
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/01/25818322/price-seasonality-africa-measurement-extent
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23714
id okr-10986-23714
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-237142021-04-23T14:04:16Z Price Seasonality in Africa : Measurement and Extent Gilbert, Christopher L. Christiaensen, Luc Kaminski, Jonathan SPOT PRICE RETAILING SEASONAL FACTOR RETAIL PRICE COUNTRY MARKET STOCK FUTURES SEARCH COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS DEFLATION INCOME INTEREST FUTURE EARNINGS EXCHANGE INFORMATION LIQUIDITY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES PRICE VARIATION FOOD PRICES CASSAVA FOOD POLICY FOOD POLICY RESEARCH IFPRI TRANSMISSION TOMATOES WORLD MARKETS STORAGE FACILITIES AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS PRICE PRICE TREND FOOD POLICY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INFLATION SOFTWARE PROGRAM DEVELOPING COUNTRY RETAIL INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OPEN ACCESS PRICE VARIATION MAIZE LINK DATA FOOD MARKETS CEREALS WHOLESALE MARKETS INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE CURRENCY FOOD POLICY RESEARCH DATES SILOS FOOD PRICE PRICE VOLATILITY PRODUCTS MARKET PLACE SEASONAL FACTORS BUYERS MARKETING MARKETS FRUITS VEGETABLES AGRICULTURAL PRICES WEB MATERIAL PRICE SERIES PRODUCT FAMINE GRAINS FOOD PRODUCTS COMMODITY PRICE MARKETPLACES EXPENDITURE TRANSACTIONS STAPLE FOODS DATA AVAILABILITY FOOD SECURITY PRICE TRENDS WHOLESALE PRICES DOMESTIC MARKETS HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY VOLATILITY SOFTWARE RESULTS FUTURE VALUE SEASONAL FACTORS THIRD WORLD RAW DATA PURCHASING POWER DEMAND FRUIT COUNTRY DUMMIES PRICE RISK RETAIL MARKETS PRICE CHANGES TRAINING MANUAL EXPENDITURES AGRICULTURE PRICE FLUCTUATIONS FOOD SHORTAGE AVERAGE PRICE PRICE INFORMATION SPOT MARKET EGGS MARKET LOCAL CURRENCY RETAIL PRICES FOOD PRICE INSTABILITY RESULT GOVERNMENT POLICIES TRADE SECURITY INTERNATIONAL MARKET PRICE BAND STOCK EXCHANGE BUSINESS FOOD CROPS SHARE FINANCIAL MARKETS BANANAS PERFORMANCE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PURCHASING MARKET POWER ADVERSE EFFECT MARKET PLACES RICE MISSING VALUES COMMODITIES ORANGES FOOD PRICES ARBITRAGE FINANCIAL MARKETS PRICE INDEX FOODS COMMODITY INTERNATIONAL MARKETS PRICES USES MISSING DATA SUGAR STORAGE Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places, but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption. 2016-02-02T22:41:29Z 2016-02-02T22:41:29Z 2016-01 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/01/25818322/price-seasonality-africa-measurement-extent http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23714 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7539 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa Malawi
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
en_US
topic SPOT PRICE
RETAILING
SEASONAL FACTOR
RETAIL PRICE
COUNTRY MARKET
STOCK
FUTURES
SEARCH
COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS
DEFLATION
INCOME
INTEREST
FUTURE EARNINGS
EXCHANGE
INFORMATION
LIQUIDITY
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
PRICE VARIATION
FOOD PRICES
CASSAVA
FOOD POLICY
FOOD POLICY RESEARCH
IFPRI
TRANSMISSION
TOMATOES
WORLD MARKETS
STORAGE FACILITIES
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
PRICE
PRICE TREND
FOOD POLICY
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
INFLATION
SOFTWARE PROGRAM
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
RETAIL
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
OPEN ACCESS
PRICE VARIATION
MAIZE
LINK
DATA
FOOD MARKETS
CEREALS
WHOLESALE MARKETS
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CURRENCY
FOOD POLICY RESEARCH
DATES
SILOS
FOOD PRICE
PRICE VOLATILITY
PRODUCTS
MARKET PLACE
SEASONAL FACTORS
BUYERS
MARKETING
MARKETS
FRUITS
VEGETABLES
AGRICULTURAL PRICES
WEB
MATERIAL
PRICE SERIES
PRODUCT
FAMINE
GRAINS
FOOD PRODUCTS
COMMODITY PRICE
MARKETPLACES
EXPENDITURE
TRANSACTIONS
STAPLE FOODS
DATA AVAILABILITY
FOOD SECURITY
PRICE TRENDS
WHOLESALE PRICES
DOMESTIC MARKETS
HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY
VOLATILITY
SOFTWARE
RESULTS
FUTURE
VALUE
SEASONAL FACTORS
THIRD WORLD
RAW DATA
PURCHASING POWER
DEMAND
FRUIT
COUNTRY DUMMIES
PRICE RISK
RETAIL MARKETS
PRICE CHANGES
TRAINING MANUAL
EXPENDITURES
AGRICULTURE
PRICE FLUCTUATIONS
FOOD SHORTAGE
AVERAGE PRICE
PRICE INFORMATION
SPOT MARKET
EGGS
MARKET
LOCAL CURRENCY
RETAIL PRICES
FOOD
PRICE INSTABILITY
RESULT
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
TRADE
SECURITY
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
PRICE BAND
STOCK EXCHANGE
BUSINESS
FOOD CROPS
SHARE
FINANCIAL MARKETS
BANANAS
PERFORMANCE
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
PURCHASING
MARKET POWER
ADVERSE EFFECT
MARKET PLACES
RICE
MISSING VALUES
COMMODITIES
ORANGES
FOOD PRICES
ARBITRAGE
FINANCIAL MARKETS
PRICE INDEX
FOODS
COMMODITY
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
PRICES
USES
MISSING DATA
SUGAR
STORAGE
spellingShingle SPOT PRICE
RETAILING
SEASONAL FACTOR
RETAIL PRICE
COUNTRY MARKET
STOCK
FUTURES
SEARCH
COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS
DEFLATION
INCOME
INTEREST
FUTURE EARNINGS
EXCHANGE
INFORMATION
LIQUIDITY
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
PRICE VARIATION
FOOD PRICES
CASSAVA
FOOD POLICY
FOOD POLICY RESEARCH
IFPRI
TRANSMISSION
TOMATOES
WORLD MARKETS
STORAGE FACILITIES
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
PRICE
PRICE TREND
FOOD POLICY
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
INFLATION
SOFTWARE PROGRAM
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
RETAIL
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
OPEN ACCESS
PRICE VARIATION
MAIZE
LINK
DATA
FOOD MARKETS
CEREALS
WHOLESALE MARKETS
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CURRENCY
FOOD POLICY RESEARCH
DATES
SILOS
FOOD PRICE
PRICE VOLATILITY
PRODUCTS
MARKET PLACE
SEASONAL FACTORS
BUYERS
MARKETING
MARKETS
FRUITS
VEGETABLES
AGRICULTURAL PRICES
WEB
MATERIAL
PRICE SERIES
PRODUCT
FAMINE
GRAINS
FOOD PRODUCTS
COMMODITY PRICE
MARKETPLACES
EXPENDITURE
TRANSACTIONS
STAPLE FOODS
DATA AVAILABILITY
FOOD SECURITY
PRICE TRENDS
WHOLESALE PRICES
DOMESTIC MARKETS
HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY
VOLATILITY
SOFTWARE
RESULTS
FUTURE
VALUE
SEASONAL FACTORS
THIRD WORLD
RAW DATA
PURCHASING POWER
DEMAND
FRUIT
COUNTRY DUMMIES
PRICE RISK
RETAIL MARKETS
PRICE CHANGES
TRAINING MANUAL
EXPENDITURES
AGRICULTURE
PRICE FLUCTUATIONS
FOOD SHORTAGE
AVERAGE PRICE
PRICE INFORMATION
SPOT MARKET
EGGS
MARKET
LOCAL CURRENCY
RETAIL PRICES
FOOD
PRICE INSTABILITY
RESULT
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
TRADE
SECURITY
INTERNATIONAL MARKET
PRICE BAND
STOCK EXCHANGE
BUSINESS
FOOD CROPS
SHARE
FINANCIAL MARKETS
BANANAS
PERFORMANCE
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
PURCHASING
MARKET POWER
ADVERSE EFFECT
MARKET PLACES
RICE
MISSING VALUES
COMMODITIES
ORANGES
FOOD PRICES
ARBITRAGE
FINANCIAL MARKETS
PRICE INDEX
FOODS
COMMODITY
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
PRICES
USES
MISSING DATA
SUGAR
STORAGE
Gilbert, Christopher L.
Christiaensen, Luc
Kaminski, Jonathan
Price Seasonality in Africa : Measurement and Extent
geographic_facet Africa
Malawi
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7539
description Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places, but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption.
format Working Paper
author Gilbert, Christopher L.
Christiaensen, Luc
Kaminski, Jonathan
author_facet Gilbert, Christopher L.
Christiaensen, Luc
Kaminski, Jonathan
author_sort Gilbert, Christopher L.
title Price Seasonality in Africa : Measurement and Extent
title_short Price Seasonality in Africa : Measurement and Extent
title_full Price Seasonality in Africa : Measurement and Extent
title_fullStr Price Seasonality in Africa : Measurement and Extent
title_full_unstemmed Price Seasonality in Africa : Measurement and Extent
title_sort price seasonality in africa : measurement and extent
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2016
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/01/25818322/price-seasonality-africa-measurement-extent
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23714
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