Price Seasonality in Africa : Measurement and Extent
Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving averag...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/01/25818322/price-seasonality-africa-measurement-extent http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23714 |
| Summary: | Everyone knows about seasonality. But
what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures
seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities
in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used
dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to
estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias.
This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and
sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple
crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on
average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and
a half to three times larger than in the international
reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across
market places, but maize is the only crop in which there are
important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is
the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute
seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development
Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to
seasonality in food prices and consumption. |
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