From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia

Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors co...

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Main Authors:	Matytsin, Mikhail, Moorty, Lalita, Richter, Kaspar
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2015
Subjects:	GROWTH RATES POPULATION INCREASE WORKFORCE ECONOMIC GROWTH RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH WORKING-AGE POPULATION PEOPLE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS POPULATION BY AGE HIGH FERTILITY RATE INCOME INTEREST REGIONAL LEVEL EXCHANGE LABOR FORCE DISCRIMINATION MORTALITY RATES IMMIGRANTS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT POORER REGIONS DEMOGRAPHIC DATA AGE GROUPS POLICY DISCUSSIONS CAPITAL STOCK REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH NATIONAL LEVEL LONGER LIFE OLD-AGE RICH” REGIONS REGIONAL GROWTH EFFECTIVE POLICIES DAY CARE LIFE EXPECTANCY REGION REGIONAL DATA ADULT MORTALITY INTERREGIONAL CONVERGENCE PUBLIC POLICY LABOR MARKET REGIONAL SAMPLE SAVINGS TOTAL FERTILITY RATE POPULATION CHANGE FERTILITY RATES LOWER BIRTH RATES INCOME INEQUALITY AGE POPULATIONS RETIREMENT AGE FERTILITY RATE BIRTH RATES MIGRATION ELDERLY POPULATION SOCIAL SECURITY DEPENDENCY RATIO DEPENDENCY RATIOS YOUNG POPULATION MIGRANTS NATURAL RESOURCES MORTALITY ELDERLY REGIONAL POPULATION PROGRESS MIGRATION FLOWS EQUITY DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION HUMAN CAPITAL YOUNG AGE POLICIES BARRIERS WOMAN FUTURE PUBLIC POLICIES AGE POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER PENSIONS POLICY MAKERS LIFELONG LEARNING LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT NATIONAL LEVELS RICH REGIONS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE EXTERNAL MIGRATION DIVIDEND FEWER CHILDREN ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION POPULATIONS OFFICIAL POPULATION ELDERLY PEOPLE POLICY QUALITY OF LIFE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS OUTPUT NUMBER OF WORKERS SEX CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES LEVEL OF EDUCATION REGIONS GROWTH RATE NATURAL RESOURCE BOND WORLD POPULATION SHARE POVERTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS FEWER PEOPLE INTERNAL MIGRATION MEN MIGRATION STATISTICS ECONOMIC TRENDS POLICY IMPLICATIONS LOWER FERTILITY POPULATION REGIONAL TRENDS POLICY RESEARCH POOR REGIONS POVERTY RATE LOW FERTILITY SEX RATIO FERTILITY DEMOGRAPHIC WOMEN URBAN POPULATION POPULATION STATISTICS DECLINE IN FERTILITY REGIONAL CONFLICTS DEMOGRAPHICS REGIONAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPMENT POLICY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25485357/demographic-dividend-demographic-burden-regional-trends-population-aging-russia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23465

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recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-234652021-04-23T14:04:15Z From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia Matytsin, Mikhail Moorty, Lalita Richter, Kaspar GROWTH RATES POPULATION INCREASE WORKFORCE ECONOMIC GROWTH RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH WORKING-AGE POPULATION PEOPLE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS POPULATION BY AGE HIGH FERTILITY RATE INCOME INTEREST REGIONAL LEVEL EXCHANGE LABOR FORCE DISCRIMINATION MORTALITY RATES IMMIGRANTS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT POORER REGIONS DEMOGRAPHIC DATA AGE GROUPS POLICY DISCUSSIONS CAPITAL STOCK REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH NATIONAL LEVEL LONGER LIFE OLD-AGE RICH” REGIONS REGIONAL GROWTH EFFECTIVE POLICIES DAY CARE LIFE EXPECTANCY REGION REGIONAL DATA ADULT MORTALITY INTERREGIONAL CONVERGENCE PUBLIC POLICY LABOR MARKET REGIONAL SAMPLE SAVINGS TOTAL FERTILITY RATE POPULATION CHANGE FERTILITY RATES LOWER BIRTH RATES INCOME INEQUALITY AGE POPULATIONS RETIREMENT AGE FERTILITY RATE BIRTH RATES MIGRATION ELDERLY POPULATION SOCIAL SECURITY DEPENDENCY RATIO DEPENDENCY RATIOS YOUNG POPULATION MIGRANTS NATURAL RESOURCES MORTALITY ELDERLY REGIONAL POPULATION PROGRESS MIGRATION FLOWS EQUITY DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION HUMAN CAPITAL YOUNG AGE POLICIES BARRIERS WOMAN FUTURE PUBLIC POLICIES AGE POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER PENSIONS POLICY MAKERS LIFELONG LEARNING LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT NATIONAL LEVELS RICH REGIONS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AGE GROUPS EXTERNAL MIGRATION DIVIDEND FEWER CHILDREN ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION POPULATIONS OFFICIAL POPULATION OFFICIAL POPULATION ELDERLY PEOPLE POLICY QUALITY OF LIFE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS OUTPUT NUMBER OF WORKERS SEX CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES LEVEL OF EDUCATION REGIONS GROWTH RATE NATURAL RESOURCE BOND WORLD POPULATION SHARE POVERTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS FEWER PEOPLE INTERNAL MIGRATION MEN MIGRATION STATISTICS ECONOMIC TRENDS POLICY IMPLICATIONS LOWER FERTILITY POPULATION REGIONAL TRENDS POLICY RESEARCH POOR REGIONS POVERTY RATE LOW FERTILITY SEX RATIO FERTILITY DEMOGRAPHIC WOMEN URBAN POPULATION POPULATION STATISTICS DECLINE IN FERTILITY REGIONAL CONFLICTS DEMOGRAPHICS REGIONAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPMENT POLICY Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to more favorable demographic trends. This finding has important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases in labor productivity or additions to the labor force through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades. 2015-12-18T21:31:08Z 2015-12-18T21:31:08Z 2015-11 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25485357/demographic-dividend-demographic-burden-regional-trends-population-aging-russia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23465 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7501 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Europe and Central Asia Russian Federation
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	GROWTH RATES POPULATION INCREASE WORKFORCE ECONOMIC GROWTH RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH WORKING-AGE POPULATION PEOPLE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS POPULATION BY AGE HIGH FERTILITY RATE INCOME INTEREST REGIONAL LEVEL EXCHANGE LABOR FORCE DISCRIMINATION MORTALITY RATES IMMIGRANTS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT POORER REGIONS DEMOGRAPHIC DATA AGE GROUPS POLICY DISCUSSIONS CAPITAL STOCK REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH NATIONAL LEVEL LONGER LIFE OLD-AGE RICH” REGIONS REGIONAL GROWTH EFFECTIVE POLICIES DAY CARE LIFE EXPECTANCY REGION REGIONAL DATA ADULT MORTALITY INTERREGIONAL CONVERGENCE PUBLIC POLICY LABOR MARKET REGIONAL SAMPLE SAVINGS TOTAL FERTILITY RATE POPULATION CHANGE FERTILITY RATES LOWER BIRTH RATES INCOME INEQUALITY AGE POPULATIONS RETIREMENT AGE FERTILITY RATE BIRTH RATES MIGRATION ELDERLY POPULATION SOCIAL SECURITY DEPENDENCY RATIO DEPENDENCY RATIOS YOUNG POPULATION MIGRANTS NATURAL RESOURCES MORTALITY ELDERLY REGIONAL POPULATION PROGRESS MIGRATION FLOWS EQUITY DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION HUMAN CAPITAL YOUNG AGE POLICIES BARRIERS WOMAN FUTURE PUBLIC POLICIES AGE POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER PENSIONS POLICY MAKERS LIFELONG LEARNING LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT NATIONAL LEVELS RICH REGIONS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AGE GROUPS EXTERNAL MIGRATION DIVIDEND FEWER CHILDREN ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION POPULATIONS OFFICIAL POPULATION OFFICIAL POPULATION ELDERLY PEOPLE POLICY QUALITY OF LIFE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS OUTPUT NUMBER OF WORKERS SEX CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES LEVEL OF EDUCATION REGIONS GROWTH RATE NATURAL RESOURCE BOND WORLD POPULATION SHARE POVERTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS FEWER PEOPLE INTERNAL MIGRATION MEN MIGRATION STATISTICS ECONOMIC TRENDS POLICY IMPLICATIONS LOWER FERTILITY POPULATION REGIONAL TRENDS POLICY RESEARCH POOR REGIONS POVERTY RATE LOW FERTILITY SEX RATIO FERTILITY DEMOGRAPHIC WOMEN URBAN POPULATION POPULATION STATISTICS DECLINE IN FERTILITY REGIONAL CONFLICTS DEMOGRAPHICS REGIONAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPMENT POLICY
spellingShingle	GROWTH RATES POPULATION INCREASE WORKFORCE ECONOMIC GROWTH RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH WORKING-AGE POPULATION PEOPLE CAPITAL ACCUMULATION DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS POPULATION BY AGE HIGH FERTILITY RATE INCOME INTEREST REGIONAL LEVEL EXCHANGE LABOR FORCE DISCRIMINATION MORTALITY RATES IMMIGRANTS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT POORER REGIONS DEMOGRAPHIC DATA AGE GROUPS POLICY DISCUSSIONS CAPITAL STOCK REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH NATIONAL LEVEL LONGER LIFE OLD-AGE RICH” REGIONS REGIONAL GROWTH EFFECTIVE POLICIES DAY CARE LIFE EXPECTANCY REGION REGIONAL DATA ADULT MORTALITY INTERREGIONAL CONVERGENCE PUBLIC POLICY LABOR MARKET REGIONAL SAMPLE SAVINGS TOTAL FERTILITY RATE POPULATION CHANGE FERTILITY RATES LOWER BIRTH RATES INCOME INEQUALITY AGE POPULATIONS RETIREMENT AGE FERTILITY RATE BIRTH RATES MIGRATION ELDERLY POPULATION SOCIAL SECURITY DEPENDENCY RATIO DEPENDENCY RATIOS YOUNG POPULATION MIGRANTS NATURAL RESOURCES MORTALITY ELDERLY REGIONAL POPULATION PROGRESS MIGRATION FLOWS EQUITY DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION HUMAN CAPITAL YOUNG AGE POLICIES BARRIERS WOMAN FUTURE PUBLIC POLICIES AGE POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER PENSIONS POLICY MAKERS LIFELONG LEARNING LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT NATIONAL LEVELS RICH REGIONS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AGE GROUPS EXTERNAL MIGRATION DIVIDEND FEWER CHILDREN ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION POPULATIONS OFFICIAL POPULATION OFFICIAL POPULATION ELDERLY PEOPLE POLICY QUALITY OF LIFE DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS OUTPUT NUMBER OF WORKERS SEX CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES LEVEL OF EDUCATION REGIONS GROWTH RATE NATURAL RESOURCE BOND WORLD POPULATION SHARE POVERTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS FEWER PEOPLE INTERNAL MIGRATION MEN MIGRATION STATISTICS ECONOMIC TRENDS POLICY IMPLICATIONS LOWER FERTILITY POPULATION REGIONAL TRENDS POLICY RESEARCH POOR REGIONS POVERTY RATE LOW FERTILITY SEX RATIO FERTILITY DEMOGRAPHIC WOMEN URBAN POPULATION POPULATION STATISTICS DECLINE IN FERTILITY REGIONAL CONFLICTS DEMOGRAPHICS REGIONAL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPMENT POLICY Matytsin, Mikhail Moorty, Lalita Richter, Kaspar From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia
geographic_facet	Europe and Central Asia Russian Federation
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7501
description	Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to more favorable demographic trends. This finding has important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases in labor productivity or additions to the labor force through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades.
format	Working Paper
author	Matytsin, Mikhail Moorty, Lalita Richter, Kaspar
author_facet	Matytsin, Mikhail Moorty, Lalita Richter, Kaspar
author_sort	Matytsin, Mikhail
title	From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia
title_short	From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia
title_full	From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia
title_fullStr	From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia
title_full_unstemmed	From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia
title_sort	from demographic dividend to demographic burden? : regional trends of population aging in russia
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2015
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25485357/demographic-dividend-demographic-burden-regional-trends-population-aging-russia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23465
_version_	1764453916793110528

From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden? : Regional Trends of Population Aging in Russia

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