The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Rozenberg, Julie, Hallegatte, Stephane
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2015
Subjects:	SANITATION POVERTY THRESHOLD INCOME ON FOOD JOBS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POOR PEOPLE INDICATORS FOR POVERTY FOOD PRICE RISKS IMPACT OF HURRICANES HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY UNCERTAINTIES POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY LINE IMPACT ON POVERTY SUBSTITUTION SECTORAL RESULTS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMISSION ABATEMENT POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES INCOME POVERTY RATES POVERTY ESTIMATES INCOME GROWTH AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION CHANGES IN PRICES COUNTERFACTUAL EMISSIONS EXTREME SCENARIOS COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOOD PRICES REVENUES POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS DEATH POVERTY DYNAMICS AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY LINE MODELS CLIMATE SCENARIOS PRICE GLOBAL POVERTY CROP YIELD MEASURES HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA FOOD MARKETS HURRICANES EXTREME WEATHER DEEP‐UNCERTAINTY AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SAVINGS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS SCENARIOS PER CAPITA INCOME DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CLIMATE POLICIES FAT TAILS INCOME DISTRIBUTION EMISSIONS‐REDUCTION TOTAL CONSUMPTION LABOR PRODUCTIVITY TRANSFERS AGRICULTURAL WAGES MARKETS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CYCLONES CLIMATE CHANGE FOOD PRODUCTION FARMERS FAMINE FOOD PRODUCTS CASH TRANSFERS EXTREME TEMPERATURE FINANCE AGRICULTURAL POLICY CROP YIELDS CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE POVERTY ERADICATION FOOD SECURITY ECONOMIC COSTS AGRICULTURAL WORKERS POLICIES INCOME REDISTRIBUTION CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT POLICY MAKERS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS EXTREME EVENTS POOR COUNTRIES CLIMATE ECONOMIC SECTORS DEMAND ABATEMENT NATIONAL INCOME ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR FOOD EXPENDITURE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION MALNUTRITION RURAL DEEP UNCERTAINTY NUTRITION HOUSEHOLD BUDGET ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE ENERGY PRICES PRICE INCREASE POLICY HUMAN HEALTH COST OF CARBON DRINKING WATER HURRICANE UNCERTAIN IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS POOR HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY POOR FARMERS FOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS FOOD SUPPLY SUPPLY POLICY IMPLICATIONS LABOR SUPPLY POOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS EXCHANGE RATE POVERTY IMPACT DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PRICES ECONOMIC CONDITIONS BENEFITS INEQUALITY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25257367/impacts-climate-change-poverty-2030-potential-rapid-inclusive-climate-informed-development http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23447

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Summary:	The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario).

The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

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