Analyzing Food Price Trends in the Context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

Income growth in emerging economies has often been cited as a key driver of the past decade’s com-modity price boom—the longest and broadest boom since World War II. This paper shows that income has a negative and highly significant effect on real...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Baffes, John, Etienne, Xiaoli L.
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2015
Subjects:	PRODUCER PRICE INDEX GROWTH RATES FOOD PRICE MONETARY POLICY UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES PRICE INCREASES LAGS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES PRICE SERIES STOCK ENERGY PRICES INCOME INTEREST SUPPLY SHOCKS REAL EXCHANGE RATES POWER PARITY EQUILIBRIUM PRICE EXPECTATIONS DEMAND GROWTH COMMODITY PRICE AVERAGE PRICES EMERGING ECONOMIES INTEREST RATE EXCHANGE GDP PER CAPITA EXPORTS ELASTICITY PRODUCER PRICES POLITICAL ECONOMY FOOD PRICES PRICE INDICES FISCAL POLICY EQUILIBRIUM VARIABLES PRICING EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPING COUNTRY PRICE TREASURY BILL INFLATION PRODUCER PRICE TRENDS PRICE FLUCTUATIONS DEVELOPMENT INFLUENCE PER CAPITA INCOME MARKET REFORMS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS RESERVE BANK PRICE CHANGES PRICE VOLATILITY PRODUCTS EXCHANGE RATES INTEREST RATES INDUSTRIALIZATION MARKETS MARKETING DEBT AGRICULTURAL PRICES PRICE ELASTICITY PRODUCT REAL INTEREST RATE INVENTORIES PRICING POLICIES CLOSED‐ECONOMY INVENTORY PURCHASING POWER MARKET PRICE PRICE INFLATION EXPENDITURE INCOME MEASURES COMMODITY EXPORTS CONSUMPTION TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE MARKET PRICES DISTRIBUTED LAGS PRICE TRENDS AVERAGE PRICE INTERNATIONAL TRADE VOLATILITY STANDARD OF LIVING FUTURE FUTURE PRICE VALUE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE FOREIGN INVESTMENT DEMAND AGGREGATE DEMAND AGRICULTURE CONSUMERS EXPENDITURES INCOMES BORROWING COUNTRIES MARKET INCOME EFFECT ECONOMICS TREASURY RATE OF GROWTH PRICE MOVEMENTS INSURANCE TAXATION CURRENCIES COMMODITY PRICES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES TRADE COPPER PRICE GDP GOODS SECURITY STOCKS BARTER INVESTMENT SHARE SUPPLY PURCHASING BANKING COMMODITIES MIDDLE‐INCOME COUNTRIES PRICE INDEX COMMODITY PRICES ENERGY PRICE PRODUCTION COSTS DEVELOPMENT POLICY INCOME GROUPS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/09/25093870/analyzing-food-price-trends-context-engel’s-law-prebisch-singer-hypothesis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22843

Description
Summary:	Income growth in emerging economies has often been cited as a key driver of the past decade’s com-modity price boom—the longest and broadest boom since World War II. This paper shows that income has a negative and highly significant effect on real food commodity prices, a finding that is consistent with Engel’s Law and Kindleberger’s thesis, the predecessors of the Prebisch-Singer hypothe-sis. The paper also shows that, in the long run, income influences real food prices mainly through the manufacturing price channel (the deflator), hence weakening the view that income growth exerts strong upward pressure on food prices. Other (short-term) drivers of food prices include energy costs, inventories, and monetary conditions.

Analyzing Food Price Trends in the Context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

Similar Items