Trade Determinants and Potential of Syria : Using a Gravity Model ‘With an Estimation of the Syrian Crisis’ Impact on Exports’

Trade Determinants and Potential of Syria : Using a Gravity Model ‘With an Estimation of the Syrian Crisis’ Impact on Exports’

This paper diagnoses export determinants for Syria between 1995 and 2010 using a gravity model applying Heckman's two-step approach with Least Squares Dummy Variables. The model analyzes total and manufacturing exports separately. In addition to the standard explanatory variables, the gravity m...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Mehchy, Zaki, Nasser, Rabie, Schiffbauer, Marc
Format: Journal Article
Language:en_US
Published: Taylor and Francis 2015
Subjects:
trade determinants
gravity model
Syrian crisis
Heckman
Least Squares Dummy Variables
export potential
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22701
id okr-10986-22701
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-227012021-04-23T14:04:10Z Trade Determinants and Potential of Syria : Using a Gravity Model ‘With an Estimation of the Syrian Crisis’ Impact on Exports’ Mehchy, Zaki Nasser, Rabie Schiffbauer, Marc trade determinants gravity model Syrian crisis Heckman Least Squares Dummy Variables export potential This paper diagnoses export determinants for Syria between 1995 and 2010 using a gravity model applying Heckman's two-step approach with Least Squares Dummy Variables. The model analyzes total and manufacturing exports separately. In addition to the standard explanatory variables, the gravity model is augmented with the nominal effective exchange rate and institutional performance variables. The results show the importance of a relative improvement in Syrian institutions to increase exports. Furthermore, the paper estimates an index that identifies countries with a high potential demand for Syrian products. Finally, the gravity model is used to simulate the impact of the ongoing conflict in Syria on the potential for exports; the results show that sanctions and the deterioration in institutional factors are expected to have reduced Syria's export potential by more than 70%, which might lead to a complete collapse of the economy in the short term. 2015-09-28T18:56:03Z 2015-09-28T18:56:03Z 2015-08-20 Journal Article Middle East Development Journal 1793-8120 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22701 en_US CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo World Bank Taylor and Francis Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Journal Article Syrian Arab Republic
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language en_US
topic trade determinants
gravity model
Syrian crisis
Heckman
Least Squares Dummy Variables
export potential
spellingShingle trade determinants
gravity model
Syrian crisis
Heckman
Least Squares Dummy Variables
export potential
Mehchy, Zaki
Nasser, Rabie
Schiffbauer, Marc
Trade Determinants and Potential of Syria : Using a Gravity Model ‘With an Estimation of the Syrian Crisis’ Impact on Exports’
geographic_facet Syrian Arab Republic
description This paper diagnoses export determinants for Syria between 1995 and 2010 using a gravity model applying Heckman's two-step approach with Least Squares Dummy Variables. The model analyzes total and manufacturing exports separately. In addition to the standard explanatory variables, the gravity model is augmented with the nominal effective exchange rate and institutional performance variables. The results show the importance of a relative improvement in Syrian institutions to increase exports. Furthermore, the paper estimates an index that identifies countries with a high potential demand for Syrian products. Finally, the gravity model is used to simulate the impact of the ongoing conflict in Syria on the potential for exports; the results show that sanctions and the deterioration in institutional factors are expected to have reduced Syria's export potential by more than 70%, which might lead to a complete collapse of the economy in the short term.
format Journal Article
author Mehchy, Zaki
Nasser, Rabie
Schiffbauer, Marc
author_facet Mehchy, Zaki
Nasser, Rabie
Schiffbauer, Marc
author_sort Mehchy, Zaki
title Trade Determinants and Potential of Syria : Using a Gravity Model ‘With an Estimation of the Syrian Crisis’ Impact on Exports’
title_short Trade Determinants and Potential of Syria : Using a Gravity Model ‘With an Estimation of the Syrian Crisis’ Impact on Exports’
title_full Trade Determinants and Potential of Syria : Using a Gravity Model ‘With an Estimation of the Syrian Crisis’ Impact on Exports’
title_fullStr Trade Determinants and Potential of Syria : Using a Gravity Model ‘With an Estimation of the Syrian Crisis’ Impact on Exports’
title_full_unstemmed Trade Determinants and Potential of Syria : Using a Gravity Model ‘With an Estimation of the Syrian Crisis’ Impact on Exports’
title_sort trade determinants and potential of syria : using a gravity model ‘with an estimation of the syrian crisis’ impact on exports’
publisher Taylor and Francis
publishDate 2015
url http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22701
_version_ 1764451812987895808

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