Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends : An Application to Central America

The objective of this study is to assess the possibility of using Internet search keyword data for forecasting price series in Central America, focusing on Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras. The Internet search data comes from Google Trends. Th...

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Main Authors:	Seabold, Skipper, Coppola, Andrea
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2015
Subjects:	FORECASTS UNEMPLOYMENT LEADING INDICATORS AUTOMOBILE VARIABILITY SEARCH QUERY E-MAIL DISTRIBUTED LAGS LAGS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING SOFTWARE ERRORS RESULTS SEARCH INTEREST VALUE EXPECTATIONS TAXONOMY SEARCH TERM RAW DATA ABBREVIATIONS MACROECONOMICS ECONOMIC FORECASTING CONSUMER GOODS DATA MINING INFORMATION INDEX SEARCHING PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE WELFARE OPTIMIZATION SAMPLES VARIABLES MEASUREMENT CONTENT PRICE BENCHMARK BENCHMARKS ECONOMIC THEORY SURVEYS INDICES SEARCH BEHAVIOR PROBABILITIES CASE INTERNET TRENDS OPEN ACCESS SEARCH TERMS COMMUNICATIONS QUERY FACTOR ANALYSIS GDP DATA GOODS THEORY ARMA GROWTH RATE STATISTICS SAMPLING PERFORMANCE LEAST SQUARES METHOD NOTATION BASE YEAR LINEAR MODELS TIME SERIES CRITERIA CASES FORECASTING MATRIX WEB STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY SEARCH ENGINE ABBREVIATION INDICATORS SEARCHES RESEARCH ECONOMICS RESEARCH ARIMA MACHINE LEARNING MISSING OBSERVATIONS LINEAR REGRESSION PRICES USES HTML DEVELOPMENT POLICY FUTURE RESEARCH
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/08/24925642/nowcasting-prices-using-google-trends-application-central-america http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22655

id	okr-10986-22655
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-226552021-04-23T14:04:10Z Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends : An Application to Central America Seabold, Skipper Coppola, Andrea FORECASTS UNEMPLOYMENT LEADING INDICATORS AUTOMOBILE VARIABILITY SEARCH QUERY E-MAIL DISTRIBUTED LAGS LAGS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING SOFTWARE ERRORS RESULTS SEARCH INTEREST VALUE EXPECTATIONS TAXONOMY SEARCH TERM RAW DATA ABBREVIATIONS MACROECONOMICS ECONOMIC FORECASTING CONSUMER GOODS DATA MINING INFORMATION INDEX SEARCHING PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE WELFARE OPTIMIZATION SAMPLES VARIABLES MEASUREMENT CONTENT PRICE BENCHMARK BENCHMARKS ECONOMIC THEORY SURVEYS INDICES SEARCH BEHAVIOR PROBABILITIES CASE INTERNET TRENDS OPEN ACCESS SEARCH TERMS COMMUNICATIONS QUERY FACTOR ANALYSIS GDP DATA GOODS THEORY ARMA GROWTH RATE STATISTICS SAMPLING PERFORMANCE LEAST SQUARES METHOD NOTATION BASE YEAR LINEAR MODELS TIME SERIES CRITERIA CASES FORECASTING MATRIX WEB STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY SEARCH ENGINE ABBREVIATION INDICATORS SEARCHES RESEARCH ECONOMICS RESEARCH ARIMA MACHINE LEARNING MISSING OBSERVATIONS LINEAR REGRESSION PRICES USES HTML DEVELOPMENT POLICY FUTURE RESEARCH The objective of this study is to assess the possibility of using Internet search keyword data for forecasting price series in Central America, focusing on Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras. The Internet search data comes from Google Trends. The paper introduces these data and discusses some of the challenges inherent in working with it in the context of developing countries. A new index is introduced for consumer search behavior for these countries using Google Trends data covering a two-week period during a single month. For each country, the study estimates one-step-ahead forecasts for several dozen price series for food and consumer goods categories. The study finds that the addition of the Internet search index improves forecasting over benchmark models in about 20 percent of the series. The paper discusses the reasons for the varied success and potential avenues for future research. 2015-09-23T15:42:13Z 2015-09-23T15:42:13Z 2015-08 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/08/24925642/nowcasting-prices-using-google-trends-application-central-america http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22655 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7398 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	FORECASTS UNEMPLOYMENT LEADING INDICATORS AUTOMOBILE VARIABILITY SEARCH QUERY E-MAIL DISTRIBUTED LAGS LAGS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING SOFTWARE ERRORS RESULTS SEARCH INTEREST VALUE EXPECTATIONS TAXONOMY SEARCH TERM RAW DATA ABBREVIATIONS MACROECONOMICS ECONOMIC FORECASTING CONSUMER GOODS DATA MINING INFORMATION INDEX SEARCHING PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE WELFARE OPTIMIZATION SAMPLES VARIABLES MEASUREMENT CONTENT PRICE BENCHMARK BENCHMARKS ECONOMIC THEORY SURVEYS INDICES SEARCH BEHAVIOR PROBABILITIES CASE INTERNET TRENDS OPEN ACCESS SEARCH TERMS COMMUNICATIONS QUERY FACTOR ANALYSIS GDP DATA GOODS THEORY ARMA GROWTH RATE STATISTICS SAMPLING PERFORMANCE LEAST SQUARES METHOD NOTATION BASE YEAR LINEAR MODELS TIME SERIES CRITERIA CASES FORECASTING MATRIX WEB STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY SEARCH ENGINE ABBREVIATION INDICATORS SEARCHES RESEARCH ECONOMICS RESEARCH ARIMA MACHINE LEARNING MISSING OBSERVATIONS LINEAR REGRESSION PRICES USES HTML DEVELOPMENT POLICY FUTURE RESEARCH
spellingShingle	FORECASTS UNEMPLOYMENT LEADING INDICATORS AUTOMOBILE VARIABILITY SEARCH QUERY E-MAIL DISTRIBUTED LAGS LAGS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING SOFTWARE ERRORS RESULTS SEARCH INTEREST VALUE EXPECTATIONS TAXONOMY SEARCH TERM RAW DATA ABBREVIATIONS MACROECONOMICS ECONOMIC FORECASTING CONSUMER GOODS DATA MINING INFORMATION INDEX SEARCHING PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE WELFARE OPTIMIZATION SAMPLES VARIABLES MEASUREMENT CONTENT PRICE BENCHMARK BENCHMARKS ECONOMIC THEORY SURVEYS INDICES SEARCH BEHAVIOR PROBABILITIES CASE INTERNET TRENDS OPEN ACCESS SEARCH TERMS COMMUNICATIONS QUERY FACTOR ANALYSIS GDP DATA GOODS THEORY ARMA GROWTH RATE STATISTICS SAMPLING PERFORMANCE LEAST SQUARES METHOD NOTATION BASE YEAR LINEAR MODELS TIME SERIES CRITERIA CASES FORECASTING MATRIX WEB STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY SEARCH ENGINE ABBREVIATION INDICATORS SEARCHES RESEARCH ECONOMICS RESEARCH ARIMA MACHINE LEARNING MISSING OBSERVATIONS LINEAR REGRESSION PRICES USES HTML DEVELOPMENT POLICY FUTURE RESEARCH Seabold, Skipper Coppola, Andrea Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends : An Application to Central America
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7398
description	The objective of this study is to assess the possibility of using Internet search keyword data for forecasting price series in Central America, focusing on Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras. The Internet search data comes from Google Trends. The paper introduces these data and discusses some of the challenges inherent in working with it in the context of developing countries. A new index is introduced for consumer search behavior for these countries using Google Trends data covering a two-week period during a single month. For each country, the study estimates one-step-ahead forecasts for several dozen price series for food and consumer goods categories. The study finds that the addition of the Internet search index improves forecasting over benchmark models in about 20 percent of the series. The paper discusses the reasons for the varied success and potential avenues for future research.
format	Working Paper
author	Seabold, Skipper Coppola, Andrea
author_facet	Seabold, Skipper Coppola, Andrea
author_sort	Seabold, Skipper
title	Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends : An Application to Central America
title_short	Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends : An Application to Central America
title_full	Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends : An Application to Central America
title_fullStr	Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends : An Application to Central America
title_full_unstemmed	Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends : An Application to Central America
title_sort	nowcasting prices using google trends : an application to central america
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2015
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/08/24925642/nowcasting-prices-using-google-trends-application-central-america http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22655
_version_	1764451684402069504

Nowcasting Prices Using Google Trends : An Application to Central America

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