Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance
This paper presents an overview of the structure of probabilistic catastrophe risk models, discusses their importance for appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments and strategy, and puts forward a model and a process fo...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2015
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/07/24744805/using-probabilistic-models-appraise-decide-sovereign-disaster-risk-financing-insurance http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22237 |
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okr-10986-222372021-04-23T14:04:07Z Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Ley-Borrás, Roberto Fox, Benjamin D. FINANCIAL RISK CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CATASTROPHIC EVENTS RISKS CAPITAL MARKETS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PRODUCTION RISK EXPOSURE RISK REDUCTION SNOW STORMS INCOME DISASTER RISKS STORMS CONTINGENT LIABILITY INDUSTRY STRATEGIES INFORMATION PROGRAMS NATURAL CATASTROPHES BUILDING CODE EFFECTS PREVENTIVE ACTIONS RISK AVERSION DISASTER CAPITAL MARKETS SOCIAL BENEFITS DISASTER PREVENTION EARTHQUAKES HURRICANES NATURAL CATASTROPHES CATASTROPHES TSUNAMIS NATURAL PHENOMENA PUBLIC POLICY RELIEF TRAINING NATURAL DISASTER DISASTER RESPONSE TRANSPORT REDUCING POVERTY FLOODS OUTPUTS NATURAL HAZARD NATURAL DISASTERS CRITERIA DEBT MARKETS ORGANIZATIONS DISASTERS DISASTER REDUCTION LOANS RESERVES SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE EFFICIENCY INFRASTRUCTURE TAXES CONTINGENT LIABILITY CREDIT INSURANCE DROUGHTS EMERGENCY EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT REDUCING POVERTY NATURAL HAZARDS DISASTER REDUCTION DISASTER RISK POLICIES SOVEREIGN RISK NATURAL HAZARD VALUE LOSSES BANK CREDIT NEUTRALITY RISK EXPOSURE DAMAGE PROPERTY RELIEF OPERATIONS INSURANCE INDUSTRY NATURAL DISASTER RELIEF OPERATIONS DISASTER MANAGEMENT RISK‐TRANSFER FLOOD RISK TRANSFER MANAGEMENT PREVENTIVE ACTIONS INSURANCE LOSS RESPONSE TO DISASTER RISK TRANSFER DISASTER RESPONSE RISK MITIGATION CATASTROPHIC EVENTS HURRICANE INVESTMENT RISK PHYSICAL DAMAGE INSURANCE COMPANIES MITIGATION DISASTER RISKS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PHYSICAL DAMAGE REVENUE RISK MANAGEMENT CONTINGENT LIABILITIES FINANCIAL RISK DISASTER RISK INSURANCE COMPANIES RISK MANAGEMENT RISK AVERSION GOVERNMENTS LIABILITIES OUTCOMES COVERAGE SNOW STORMS FINANCING SOURCES NATURAL HAZARDS NATURAL PHENOMENA RISK ASSESSMENT RECONSTRUCTION CREDIT INSURANCE RISK MITIGATION NATURAL DISASTERS This paper presents an overview of the structure of probabilistic catastrophe risk models, discusses their importance for appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments and strategy, and puts forward a model and a process for improving decision making on the linked disaster risk management strategy and sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategy. The paper discusses governments use of probabilistic catastrophe models to inform sovereign disaster risk financing decision making and describes the ex ante and ex post financing instruments available for responding to extreme natural events. It also discusses the challenge of appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments, including a review of the multiple dimensions of disaster risks and the value that probabilistic catastrophe risk models provide. The decision making framework for sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance put forward by the paper includes the use of a decision model (an influence diagram) as a rigorous representation of the relationships between the decisions, uncertain events, and consequences relevant to sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance decision making. The framework also includes a process for generating high-quality customized components for the decision model, and a tool for designing coherent sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategies. The paper ends with suggestions for improving catastrophe risk models to facilitate sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance decision making. 2015-07-20T16:30:51Z 2015-07-20T16:30:51Z 2015-07 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/07/24744805/using-probabilistic-models-appraise-decide-sovereign-disaster-risk-financing-insurance http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22237 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7358 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
FINANCIAL RISK CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CATASTROPHIC EVENTS RISKS CAPITAL MARKETS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PRODUCTION RISK EXPOSURE RISK REDUCTION SNOW STORMS INCOME DISASTER RISKS STORMS CONTINGENT LIABILITY INDUSTRY STRATEGIES INFORMATION PROGRAMS NATURAL CATASTROPHES BUILDING CODE EFFECTS PREVENTIVE ACTIONS RISK AVERSION DISASTER CAPITAL MARKETS SOCIAL BENEFITS DISASTER PREVENTION EARTHQUAKES HURRICANES NATURAL CATASTROPHES CATASTROPHES TSUNAMIS NATURAL PHENOMENA PUBLIC POLICY RELIEF TRAINING NATURAL DISASTER DISASTER RESPONSE TRANSPORT REDUCING POVERTY FLOODS OUTPUTS NATURAL HAZARD NATURAL DISASTERS CRITERIA DEBT MARKETS ORGANIZATIONS DISASTERS DISASTER REDUCTION LOANS RESERVES SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE EFFICIENCY INFRASTRUCTURE TAXES CONTINGENT LIABILITY CREDIT INSURANCE DROUGHTS EMERGENCY EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT REDUCING POVERTY NATURAL HAZARDS DISASTER REDUCTION DISASTER RISK POLICIES SOVEREIGN RISK NATURAL HAZARD VALUE LOSSES BANK CREDIT NEUTRALITY RISK EXPOSURE DAMAGE PROPERTY RELIEF OPERATIONS INSURANCE INDUSTRY NATURAL DISASTER RELIEF OPERATIONS DISASTER MANAGEMENT RISK‐TRANSFER FLOOD RISK TRANSFER MANAGEMENT PREVENTIVE ACTIONS INSURANCE LOSS RESPONSE TO DISASTER RISK TRANSFER DISASTER RESPONSE RISK MITIGATION CATASTROPHIC EVENTS HURRICANE INVESTMENT RISK PHYSICAL DAMAGE INSURANCE COMPANIES MITIGATION DISASTER RISKS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PHYSICAL DAMAGE REVENUE RISK MANAGEMENT CONTINGENT LIABILITIES FINANCIAL RISK DISASTER RISK INSURANCE COMPANIES RISK MANAGEMENT RISK AVERSION GOVERNMENTS LIABILITIES OUTCOMES COVERAGE SNOW STORMS FINANCING SOURCES NATURAL HAZARDS NATURAL PHENOMENA RISK ASSESSMENT RECONSTRUCTION CREDIT INSURANCE RISK MITIGATION NATURAL DISASTERS |
| spellingShingle |
FINANCIAL RISK CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CATASTROPHIC EVENTS RISKS CAPITAL MARKETS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PRODUCTION RISK EXPOSURE RISK REDUCTION SNOW STORMS INCOME DISASTER RISKS STORMS CONTINGENT LIABILITY INDUSTRY STRATEGIES INFORMATION PROGRAMS NATURAL CATASTROPHES BUILDING CODE EFFECTS PREVENTIVE ACTIONS RISK AVERSION DISASTER CAPITAL MARKETS SOCIAL BENEFITS DISASTER PREVENTION EARTHQUAKES HURRICANES NATURAL CATASTROPHES CATASTROPHES TSUNAMIS NATURAL PHENOMENA PUBLIC POLICY RELIEF TRAINING NATURAL DISASTER DISASTER RESPONSE TRANSPORT REDUCING POVERTY FLOODS OUTPUTS NATURAL HAZARD NATURAL DISASTERS CRITERIA DEBT MARKETS ORGANIZATIONS DISASTERS DISASTER REDUCTION LOANS RESERVES SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE EFFICIENCY INFRASTRUCTURE TAXES CONTINGENT LIABILITY CREDIT INSURANCE DROUGHTS EMERGENCY EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT REDUCING POVERTY NATURAL HAZARDS DISASTER REDUCTION DISASTER RISK POLICIES SOVEREIGN RISK NATURAL HAZARD VALUE LOSSES BANK CREDIT NEUTRALITY RISK EXPOSURE DAMAGE PROPERTY RELIEF OPERATIONS INSURANCE INDUSTRY NATURAL DISASTER RELIEF OPERATIONS DISASTER MANAGEMENT RISK‐TRANSFER FLOOD RISK TRANSFER MANAGEMENT PREVENTIVE ACTIONS INSURANCE LOSS RESPONSE TO DISASTER RISK TRANSFER DISASTER RESPONSE RISK MITIGATION CATASTROPHIC EVENTS HURRICANE INVESTMENT RISK PHYSICAL DAMAGE INSURANCE COMPANIES MITIGATION DISASTER RISKS DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PHYSICAL DAMAGE REVENUE RISK MANAGEMENT CONTINGENT LIABILITIES FINANCIAL RISK DISASTER RISK INSURANCE COMPANIES RISK MANAGEMENT RISK AVERSION GOVERNMENTS LIABILITIES OUTCOMES COVERAGE SNOW STORMS FINANCING SOURCES NATURAL HAZARDS NATURAL PHENOMENA RISK ASSESSMENT RECONSTRUCTION CREDIT INSURANCE RISK MITIGATION NATURAL DISASTERS Ley-Borrás, Roberto Fox, Benjamin D. Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7358 |
| description |
This paper presents an overview of the
structure of probabilistic catastrophe risk models,
discusses their importance for appraising sovereign disaster
risk financing and insurance instruments and strategy, and
puts forward a model and a process for improving decision
making on the linked disaster risk management strategy and
sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategy.
The paper discusses governments use of probabilistic
catastrophe models to inform sovereign disaster risk
financing decision making and describes the ex ante and ex
post financing instruments available for responding to
extreme natural events. It also discusses the challenge of
appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance
instruments, including a review of the multiple dimensions
of disaster risks and the value that probabilistic
catastrophe risk models provide. The decision making
framework for sovereign disaster risk financing and
insurance put forward by the paper includes the use of a
decision model (an influence diagram) as a rigorous
representation of the relationships between the decisions,
uncertain events, and consequences relevant to sovereign
disaster risk financing and insurance decision making. The
framework also includes a process for generating
high-quality customized components for the decision model,
and a tool for designing coherent sovereign disaster risk
financing and insurance strategies. The paper ends with
suggestions for improving catastrophe risk models to
facilitate sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance
decision making. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Ley-Borrás, Roberto Fox, Benjamin D. |
| author_facet |
Ley-Borrás, Roberto Fox, Benjamin D. |
| author_sort |
Ley-Borrás, Roberto |
| title |
Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance |
| title_short |
Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance |
| title_full |
Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance |
| title_fullStr |
Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Using Probabilistic Models to Appraise and Decide on Sovereign Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance |
| title_sort |
using probabilistic models to appraise and decide on sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/07/24744805/using-probabilistic-models-appraise-decide-sovereign-disaster-risk-financing-insurance http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22237 |
| _version_ |
1764450500602757120 |