Poverty Dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012 : Insights from Longitudinal Analysis Using Synthetic Panel Data

Recent National Sample Surveys point to significant poverty reduction in India since 2004/05, with a marked acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. This paper enquires into important aspects of income mobility between 2004/05 and 2011/12, based o...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Dang, Hai-Anh H., Lanjouw, Peter F.
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2015
Subjects:	LIVING STANDARDS GROWTH RATES REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY POINT ESTIMATE POVERTY LINE ECONOMIC GROWTH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS POVERTY LINE YIELDING PRO- POOR INCOME NORMAL DISTRIBUTION SCHOOLING POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY RATES ANNUAL GROWTH RATE NATIONAL POVERTY LINE COUNTRY CASE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT CONSUMPTION DATA LABOR FORCE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES NATIONAL POVERTY ESTIMATION RESULTS ANNUAL GROWTH CONSUMPTION AGGREGATE GLOBAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINES HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS 0 HYPOTHESIS REGION NON-POOR HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY DECLINE POVERTY DEBATE MEASURING POVERTY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HOUSEHOLD HEAD LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES POVERTY CHANGE FIREWOOD HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION HOUSEHOLD INCOME PER CAPITA GROWTH POVERTY STATUS ESTIMATES OF POVERTY CHRONIC POVERTY EXPLANATORY VARIABLES CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT SOCIAL PROTECTION ECONOMIC REFORMS CHANGES IN POVERTY HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS HOUSEHOLD HEADS FOOD ITEMS EMPIRICAL APPLICATION DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH POVERTY LINES CONSUMPTION REDUCING POVERTY CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION URBAN RESIDENCE POVERTY MEASUREMENT DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION ERROR TERMS DENSITY FUNCTION RURAL POVERTY URBAN AREAS AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS RURAL ERROR TERM MIDDLE CLASS LOW-INCOME TRANSFER PROGRAMS POVERTY LEVEL ECONOMICS EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION INSURANCE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT RURAL RESIDENTS FOOD SUBSIDIES POOR POPULATION REGIONS GROWTH RATE VILLAGE LEVEL RURAL AREAS POVERTY VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY HEADCOUNT POVERTY URBAN RESIDENTS HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE POINT DECLINE LIVING CONDITIONS DECLINE IN POVERTY POVERTY DYNAMICS MODEL SPECIFICATIONS HOUSEHOLD WELFARE POLICY RESEARCH POVERTY RATE POOR POVERTY ASSESSMENT PRIMARY EDUCATION EXCHANGE RATE HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS SELF-EMPLOYMENT POVERTY ANALYSIS DEVELOPMENT POLICY HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME GROUPS INEQUALITY GROWTH POOR HOUSEHOLDS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/05/24513589/poverty-dynamics-india-between-2004-2012-insights-longitudinal-analysis-using-synthetic-panel-data http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22006

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Summary:	Recent National Sample Surveys point to significant poverty reduction in India since 2004/05, with a marked acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. This paper enquires into important aspects of income mobility between 2004/05 and 2011/12, based on new statistical methods to convert the three pertinent National Sample Survey rounds into synthetic panels. The analysis draws on the synthetic panels to derive a vulnerability line for India that can be used to separate out a population subgroup comprising non-poor households facing a heightened risk of falling into poverty. The paper documents a strong pattern of upward mobility out of poverty and vulnerability into the middle class, with a noticeable acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. The paper further undertakes a careful investigation into the comparability of the survey rounds, prompted by the observation that fairly significant modifications had been made to survey questionnaires. The findings suggest that changes in questionnaire design have not compromised the comparability of the data.

Poverty Dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012 : Insights from Longitudinal Analysis Using Synthetic Panel Data

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