Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2015 : The Economy of New Drivers and Old Drags

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses t...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Report
Language:	Arabic,English,French en_US
Published:	Washington, DC 2015
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING AGGREGATE INVESTMENT AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ARREARS ASSET RATIO BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEFICIT BALANCE SHEET BANK DEPOSIT BANK POLICY BANKING SECTOR BANKING SYSTEM BASIS POINTS BENEFICIARY BORROWING BUDGET DEFICIT BUDGET SURPLUS BUSINESS ACTIVITY BUSINESS OWNERS CAPITAL FLOW CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL FUNDS CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INFLOW CAPITAL INFLOWS CENTRAL BANK COMMERCIAL BANK COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS COMMERCIAL BANKS COMMERCIAL LOANS COMPETITIVENESS CONFIDENCE INDEX CONFIDENCE INDICES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMERS CORRUPTION CREDIT RISK CREDIT SCHEME CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING DEBT SERVICE DEBT SERVICING DEFICITS DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DIRECTION OF TRADE DIVERSIFICATION DOLLAR RATE DOLLAR RATES DOMESTIC DEBT DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES DURABLES ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC SITUATION ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF DEMAND EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES EMPLOYERS EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES EQUIPMENT EQUITY INVESTMENT EUROBOND EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY EXPATRIATE EXPATRIATES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORTER EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL SHOCKS FAMILIES FAMILY INCOME FEDERAL RESERVE FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL MARKET FINANCIAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SERVICES FINANCING NEEDS FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FISCAL POSITION FIXED CAPITAL FOOD PRICES FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FOREIGN INVESTORS FOREIGN RESERVES FUNDING SOURCE GOLD GOVERNMENT FINANCE GOVERNMENT FUNDING GRAVITY MODEL GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GUARANTOR HOLDING HOST COUNTRIES HOST COUNTRY HOUSEHOLDS HOUSING LOAN IMPORT IMPORTS INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVEL INFLATION INFLATION RATE INSTALLMENT INSTITUTIONAL REFORM INTEREST INCOME INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL INTEREST INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTMENT CLIMATE INVESTOR CONFIDENCE ISSUANCES JOB OPPORTUNITIES KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LEADING INDICATORS LEGAL REFORMS LENDER LENDER OF LAST RESORT LEVERAGE LIQUID ASSET LIQUID ASSETS LOAN LOANS TO BUSINESSES LOCAL CURRENCY LOCAL RATE M3 MACROECONOMICS MARKET CAPITALIZATION MARKET DYNAMICS MATURITY MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY MULTIPLIER EFFECT NON-PERFORMING LOANS NPL OIL PRICES OUTPUT GAP PEG PERSONAL INCOME PHYSICAL CAPITAL PORTFOLIO POSITIVE EFFECTS POTENTIAL OUTPUT PRIVATE SECTOR LOANS PRODUCTIVE ASSETS PROFITABILITY PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT REAL ESTATE REAL GDP REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE RECEIPTS REFUGEE REFUGEES REMITTANCES REPAYMENT REPAYMENT CAPACITY RESERVES RETURN RISK AVERSION RISK PREMIUM SAVINGS SETTLEMENT SHORT-TERM LIQUIDITY SLOWDOWN SMALL BUSINESSES SOVEREIGN DEBT SOVEREIGN RISK START-UPS STOCK EXCHANGE STOCKS STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUPPLY SIDE T-BILL T-BILLS TAKEOVER TAX TAX RATE TAX REVENUES TELECOMMUNICATIONS TOTAL DEPOSIT TOTAL DEPOSITS TOTAL EXPORT TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL IMPORTS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE IMPACT TRADING TRANCHES TRANSPARENCY TREASURY TREASURY BILLS TREASURY BONDS TURNOVER TURNOVER DATA UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VENTURE CAPITAL VENTURE CAPITAL FUNDS WAGES WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24400449/lebanon-economic-monitor-economy-new-drivers-old-drags http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21761

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Summary:	The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro, Headline inflation plummeted from 2.7 percent in 2013 to 1.9 percent in 2014 and is expected to remain tempered over the medium term. Lebanon s economy continues to be exposed to external shocks. The border with Syria is increasingly menacing as coordinated attacks by ISIS and Al Nusra are being launched more frequently from their bases in Syria. Inefficiencies in power generation impose sizable macroeconomic costs on Lebanon. The Lebanese electricity sector has been underperforming for decades with considerable socio-economic costs. The macroeconomic impact has been massive.

Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2015 : The Economy of New Drivers and Old Drags

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