Gone with the Storm : Rainfall Shocks and Household Well-Being in Guatemala

This paper investigates the causal consequences of Tropical Storm Agatha (2010) -- the strongest tropical storm ever to strike Guatemala since rainfall records have been kept -- on household welfare. The analysis reveals substantial negative effect...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Baez, Javier E., Lucchetti, Leonardo, Genoni, Maria E., Salazar, Mateo
Format:	Publications & Research
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank Group, Washington, DC 2015
Subjects:	ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL LAND ALLOCATION ALLOCATION MECHANISM ANTI-POVERTY AVERAGE PRICE BUFFER STOCK CALORIE INTAKE CALORIES PER DAY CALORIES PER PERSON CALORIES PER PERSON PER DAY CASH TRANSFERS CHILD LABOR CHILD NUTRITION CLIMATE COLLATERAL EFFECTS CONSUMPTION AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION BASKET CONSUMPTION DATA CONSUMPTION INSURANCE CONSUMPTION MEASURE CONSUMPTION PRICE CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING CROP INCOME DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC PRODUCTION DROUGHT ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC IMPACTS ENERGY CONSUMPTION EXTREME EVENTS EXTREME POVERTY EXTREME POVERTY LINE EXTREME RAINFALL EXTREME WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS FINANCIAL CRISIS FOOD AID FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD EXPENDITURES FOOD ITEMS FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD SECURITY GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS HIGHER INCIDENCE OF POVERTY HOUSEHOLD BUDGET HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES HOUSEHOLD HEAD HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD WELFARE HOUSING HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE HURRICANE HURRICANE RISK HURRICANES INCOME INCOME RISK INCOME SHOCK INEQUALITY INFANT MORTALITY INFANT MORTALITY RATES INSURANCE JOBS LABOR INCOME LABOR SUPPLY LIVING STANDARDS LOSSES IN CONSUMPTION MALNUTRITION MILK NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATIONAL POVERTY RATE NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL SHOCKS NUTRITION PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION POOR POVERTY GAP POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MAP POVERTY PERSISTENCE POVERTY RATE POVERTY RATES POVERTY STATUS POVERTY THRESHOLD PRICE INDEX PRIVATE TRANSFERS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION REDUCTION IN CONSUMPTION RESOURCE ECONOMICS RISK MANAGEMENT RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL FAMILIES RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL POOR RURAL POOR HOUSEHOLDS RURAL VILLAGES SANITATION SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SCHOOLING SOCIAL PROTECTION STORMS SUBSISTENCE TOTAL CONSUMPTION TOTAL DAMAGES TOTAL INCOME TROPICAL CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY WELFARE INDICATOR
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23884248/gone-storm-rainfall-shocks-household-well-being-guatemala http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21396

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Summary:	This paper investigates the causal consequences of Tropical Storm Agatha (2010) -- the strongest tropical storm ever to strike Guatemala since rainfall records have been kept -- on household welfare. The analysis reveals substantial negative effects, particularly among urban households. Per capita consumption fell by 12.6 percent, raising poverty by 5.5 percentage points (an increase of 18 percent). The negative effects of the shock span other areas of human welfare. Households cut back on food consumption (10 percent or 43 to 108 fewer calories per person per day) and reduced expenditures on basic durables. These effects are related to a drop in income per capita (10 percent), mostly among salaried workers. Adults coped with the shock by increasing their labor supply (on the intensive margin) and simultaneously relying on the labor supply of their children and withdrawing them from school. Impact heterogeneity is associated with the intensity of the shock, food price inflation, and the timing of Agatha with respect to the harvest cycle of the main crops. The results are robust to placebo treatments, household migration, issues of measurement error, and different samples. The negative effects of the storm partly explain the increase in poverty seen in urban Guatemala between 2006 and 2011, which national authorities and analysts previously attributed solely to the collateral effects of the global financial crisis.

Gone with the Storm : Rainfall Shocks and Household Well-Being in Guatemala

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