Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh
It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for pl...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
2015
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/12/23056341/climate-change-soil-salinity-economics-high-yield-rice-production-coastal-bangladesh http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21136 |
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okr-10986-211362021-04-23T14:04:01Z Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh Dasgupta, Susmita Hossain, Md. Moqbul Huq, Mainul Wheeler, David ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AQUACULTURE BASIN CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATIC CHANGE COASTAL AREAS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COASTAL COMMUNITY COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS COASTAL REGIONS COASTAL ZONES COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS COMPOST CONDUCTIVITY CONSERVATION CULTIVABLE LAND DIFFUSION DRINKING WATER ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATES ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC EFFECTS ECONOMICS ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE ELASTICITIES EMISSIONS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE ESTUARIES FARMERS FISHERIES FLOODING FOOD POLICY RESEARCH GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE GLOBAL WARMING HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING ICE ICE CAPS IMPACT OF CLIMATE IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE INPUT PRICES INPUT USE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INUNDATION IRRIGATION LAND ECONOMICS LAND USE LONG-TERM RAINFALL LOWER RAINFALL MARKET PRICES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEAN RAINFALL MEAN TEMPERATURE MELTING MONITORING STATIONS OCEANS POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLITICAL ECONOMY PRICE ELASTICITIES PROGRAMS RAINFALL RAINFALL DATA RAINFALL TREND RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE RIVER RIVER BASIN RIVER ESTUARIES RIVER FLOWS RIVERS SALINITY SALTWATER INTRUSION SCIENCES SEA SEA LEVEL RISE SEA-LEVEL SEA-LEVEL RISE SEASON SOILS STORM SURGES STREAM SUBSIDENCE SURFACE WATER SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TEMPERATURE DATA TEMPERATURE EFFECT TEMPERATURE INCREASE TEMPERATURES VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE WATER TABLE WETLANDS It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region. 2015-01-07T21:23:56Z 2015-01-07T21:23:56Z 2014-12 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/12/23056341/climate-change-soil-salinity-economics-high-yield-rice-production-coastal-bangladesh http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21136 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7140 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research South Asia Bangladesh |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AQUACULTURE BASIN CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATIC CHANGE COASTAL AREAS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COASTAL COMMUNITY COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS COASTAL REGIONS COASTAL ZONES COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS COMPOST CONDUCTIVITY CONSERVATION CULTIVABLE LAND DIFFUSION DRINKING WATER ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATES ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC EFFECTS ECONOMICS ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE ELASTICITIES EMISSIONS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE ESTUARIES FARMERS FISHERIES FLOODING FOOD POLICY RESEARCH GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE GLOBAL WARMING HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING ICE ICE CAPS IMPACT OF CLIMATE IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE INPUT PRICES INPUT USE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INUNDATION IRRIGATION LAND ECONOMICS LAND USE LONG-TERM RAINFALL LOWER RAINFALL MARKET PRICES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEAN RAINFALL MEAN TEMPERATURE MELTING MONITORING STATIONS OCEANS POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLITICAL ECONOMY PRICE ELASTICITIES PROGRAMS RAINFALL RAINFALL DATA RAINFALL TREND RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE RIVER RIVER BASIN RIVER ESTUARIES RIVER FLOWS RIVERS SALINITY SALTWATER INTRUSION SCIENCES SEA SEA LEVEL RISE SEA-LEVEL SEA-LEVEL RISE SEASON SOILS STORM SURGES STREAM SUBSIDENCE SURFACE WATER SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TEMPERATURE DATA TEMPERATURE EFFECT TEMPERATURE INCREASE TEMPERATURES VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE WATER TABLE WETLANDS |
| spellingShingle |
ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AQUACULTURE BASIN CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATIC CHANGE COASTAL AREAS COASTAL COMMUNITIES COASTAL COMMUNITY COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS COASTAL REGIONS COASTAL ZONES COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS COMPOST CONDUCTIVITY CONSERVATION CULTIVABLE LAND DIFFUSION DRINKING WATER ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATES ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC EFFECTS ECONOMICS ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE ELASTICITIES EMISSIONS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE ESTUARIES FARMERS FISHERIES FLOODING FOOD POLICY RESEARCH GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE GLOBAL WARMING HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING ICE ICE CAPS IMPACT OF CLIMATE IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE INPUT PRICES INPUT USE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE INUNDATION IRRIGATION LAND ECONOMICS LAND USE LONG-TERM RAINFALL LOWER RAINFALL MARKET PRICES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEAN RAINFALL MEAN TEMPERATURE MELTING MONITORING STATIONS OCEANS POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLITICAL ECONOMY PRICE ELASTICITIES PROGRAMS RAINFALL RAINFALL DATA RAINFALL TREND RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE RIVER RIVER BASIN RIVER ESTUARIES RIVER FLOWS RIVERS SALINITY SALTWATER INTRUSION SCIENCES SEA SEA LEVEL RISE SEA-LEVEL SEA-LEVEL RISE SEASON SOILS STORM SURGES STREAM SUBSIDENCE SURFACE WATER SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE CHANGE TEMPERATURE DATA TEMPERATURE EFFECT TEMPERATURE INCREASE TEMPERATURES VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE WATER TABLE WETLANDS Dasgupta, Susmita Hossain, Md. Moqbul Huq, Mainul Wheeler, David Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh |
| geographic_facet |
South Asia Bangladesh |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7140 |
| description |
It is a virtual certainty that sea-level
rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100
even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near
future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity
intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in
low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper
presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change
leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on
agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis
is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future
soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account
climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and
rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis
to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil
salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety
rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent
in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4
deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed
coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce
significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice
production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in
Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Dasgupta, Susmita Hossain, Md. Moqbul Huq, Mainul Wheeler, David |
| author_facet |
Dasgupta, Susmita Hossain, Md. Moqbul Huq, Mainul Wheeler, David |
| author_sort |
Dasgupta, Susmita |
| title |
Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh |
| title_short |
Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh |
| title_full |
Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh |
| title_fullStr |
Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh |
| title_sort |
climate change, soil salinity, and the economics of high-yield rice production in coastal bangladesh |
| publisher |
World Bank Group, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/12/23056341/climate-change-soil-salinity-economics-high-yield-rice-production-coastal-bangladesh http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21136 |
| _version_ |
1764447743018795008 |