Who Remained in Poverty, Who Moved Up, and Who Fell Down? An Investigation of Poverty Dynamics in Senegal in the Late 2000s
Poverty estimates based on cross-section data provide static snapshots of poverty rates. Although a time series of cross-section data can offer some insights into poverty trends, it does not allow for an assessment of dynamics at the household lev...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank Group, Washington, DC
2015
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/12/23055398/remained-poverty-moved-up-fell-down-investigation-poverty-dynamics-senegal-late-2000s http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21132 |
| Summary: | Poverty estimates based on cross-section
data provide static snapshots of poverty rates. Although a
time series of cross-section data can offer some insights
into poverty trends, it does not allow for an assessment of
dynamics at the household level. Such a dynamic perspective
on poverty generally calls for panel data and this kind of
analysis can usefully inform poverty reduction policy,
notably the design of social protection interventions.
Absent actual panel data for Senegal, this paper applies new
statistical methods to construct synthetic panel data from
two rounds of cross-section household surveys in 2005 and
2011. These data are used to study poverty transitions. The
results suggest that, in marked contrast to the picture
obtained from cross-section data, there exists a great deal
of mobility in and out of poverty during this period. More
than half the population experiences changes in its poverty
status and more than two-thirds of the extreme (food) poor
move up one or two welfare categories. Factors such as rural
residence, disability, exposure to some kind of natural
disaster, and informality in the labor market are associated
with a heightened risk of falling into poverty. Belonging to
certain ethnicities and factors such as migration, working
in the non-agriculture sector, and having access to social
capital are associated with a lower risk of falling into poverty. |
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