Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant
This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify the direct and indirect economic eff...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/12/22316371/economic-effects-syrian-war-spread-islamic-state-levant http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20696 |
| Summary: | This paper uses a global computable
general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant
countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan,
Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify
the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war
and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria
and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while
the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in
aggregate terms. The fact that the Islamic State's
spread has undermined regional trade adds to varying degrees
to the direct costs in all Levant economies and in the case
of Syria and Iraq doubles the welfare losses. All these
countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra-Levant
trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency and
diversification. The average welfare effects are not
indicative of within-country incidence, which varies among
workers, landowners, and capitalists. |
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