Tajikistan : Moderated Growth, Heightened Risks
Tajikistan s economic growth moderated to 6.7 percent in the first half of 2014 from 7.5 percent a year earlier as activity slowed in almost all sectors. Weaker world economic growth and lower prices for cotton and aluminum adversely affected the m...
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| Format: | Economic Updates and Modeling |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
Washington, DC
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/20302396/tajikistan-moderated-growth-heightened-risks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20674 |
| id |
okr-10986-20674 |
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| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ACCESS TO CREDIT ACCESS TO FINANCE ACCOUNTABILITY ACCOUNTING ACCOUNTING STANDARDS ADB ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SECTOR APPLICATION PROCESS ARREARS ASSET QUALITY BAILOUT BANK COMPLIANCE BANK CREDIT BANKING SECTOR BANKING SUPERVISION BANKING SYSTEM BANKRUPTCY BARRIERS TO ENTRY BASIS POINTS BENEFICIARY BONDS BRANCH NETWORK BRIBE BRIBES BROKERS BUDGET DEFICIT CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL GOODS CASH COLLECTIONS CASH MANAGEMENT CASH TRANSFERS CLIMATE CHANGE COLLATERAL COMMERCIAL BANK CONSOLIDATION CONSULTING SERVICES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PROTECTION CONSUMER PROTECTION LAWS CORRUPTION CPI CREDIBILITY CREDIT BUREAUS CREDIT CULTURE CREDIT INFORMATION CREDIT SCORES CREDITOR CREDITORS CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ASSETS DEFICITS DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEVALUATION DEVELOPMENT BANK DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC BANKING DOMESTIC DEMAND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ECONOMIES OF SCALE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE ENTREPRENEURS EQUIPMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT GROWTH EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FARMERS FARMING HOUSEHOLDS FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARY FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT FINANCIAL SYSTEM FINANCIAL VIABILITY FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FIXED INVESTMENT FOREIGN BANKS FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENT FORESTRY GOVERNANCE ISSUES GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE GOVERNMENT REVENUE GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GOVERNMENT SUPPORT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH INTEREST RATES HOUSING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMMOVABLE PROPERTY INCOME GROUP INCOME TAX INCREMENTAL COSTS INEQUALITY INFLATION INFORMAL ECONOMY INFORMATION SYSTEM INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INSPECTION SYSTEM INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORY INVESTING INVESTMENT PROJECTS ISLAMIC BANKING ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK JOB CREATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE SURVEY LABOR MARKET LACK OF ACCESS LENDERS LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARD LIVING STANDARDS LOAN AGREEMENT LOAN AGREEMENTS LOAN PORTFOLIO LOAN RATES LOAN REPAYMENTS LONG-TERM INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MATURITY MATURITY MISMATCHES METALS MICROFINANCE MIGRATION MINIMUM WAGE MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY NATIONAL BANK NEW BUSINESS NON PERFORMING LOANS NONPERFORMING LOAN NONPERFORMING LOANS NPL OPEN ECONOMY OUTREACH PENSIONS POOR ACCESS POPULATION GROWTH PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SAVINGS PROBLEM BANKS PRODUCERS PRODUCTIVITY PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC GOOD PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SERVICES PUBLIC SPENDING REAL WAGES REGISTRATION SYSTEM REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVES RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS RETURN ON EQUITY RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS SEWAGE SOCIAL SERVICES SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS SOURCE OF CREDIT STATE PROPERTY STATE PROPERTY MANAGEMENT STOCKS STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUBSIDY COST SUPERVISORY FRAMEWORK SUSTAINABLE GROWTH TAX TAX ADMINISTRATION TAX COLLECTIONS TAX POLICY TAX RATES TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TELECOMMUNICATIONS TRADE BALANCE TRADE FACILITATION TRADING TRANSACTION TRANSACTIONS SYSTEM TRANSPARENCY TRANSPORT TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE TREASURY UNEMPLOYMENT UNION URBANIZATION WAGES WEIGHTS WORLD TRADE |
| spellingShingle |
ACCESS TO CREDIT ACCESS TO FINANCE ACCOUNTABILITY ACCOUNTING ACCOUNTING STANDARDS ADB ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SECTOR APPLICATION PROCESS ARREARS ASSET QUALITY BAILOUT BANK COMPLIANCE BANK CREDIT BANKING SECTOR BANKING SUPERVISION BANKING SYSTEM BANKRUPTCY BARRIERS TO ENTRY BASIS POINTS BENEFICIARY BONDS BRANCH NETWORK BRIBE BRIBES BROKERS BUDGET DEFICIT CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL GOODS CASH COLLECTIONS CASH MANAGEMENT CASH TRANSFERS CLIMATE CHANGE COLLATERAL COMMERCIAL BANK CONSOLIDATION CONSULTING SERVICES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PROTECTION CONSUMER PROTECTION LAWS CORRUPTION CPI CREDIBILITY CREDIT BUREAUS CREDIT CULTURE CREDIT INFORMATION CREDIT SCORES CREDITOR CREDITORS CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ASSETS DEFICITS DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEVALUATION DEVELOPMENT BANK DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC BANKING DOMESTIC DEMAND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ECONOMIES OF SCALE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE ENTREPRENEURS EQUIPMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT GROWTH EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FARMERS FARMING HOUSEHOLDS FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARY FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT FINANCIAL SYSTEM FINANCIAL VIABILITY FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FIXED INVESTMENT FOREIGN BANKS FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENT FORESTRY GOVERNANCE ISSUES GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE GOVERNMENT REVENUE GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GOVERNMENT SUPPORT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH INTEREST RATES HOUSING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMMOVABLE PROPERTY INCOME GROUP INCOME TAX INCREMENTAL COSTS INEQUALITY INFLATION INFORMAL ECONOMY INFORMATION SYSTEM INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INSPECTION SYSTEM INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORY INVESTING INVESTMENT PROJECTS ISLAMIC BANKING ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK JOB CREATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE SURVEY LABOR MARKET LACK OF ACCESS LENDERS LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARD LIVING STANDARDS LOAN AGREEMENT LOAN AGREEMENTS LOAN PORTFOLIO LOAN RATES LOAN REPAYMENTS LONG-TERM INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MATURITY MATURITY MISMATCHES METALS MICROFINANCE MIGRATION MINIMUM WAGE MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY NATIONAL BANK NEW BUSINESS NON PERFORMING LOANS NONPERFORMING LOAN NONPERFORMING LOANS NPL OPEN ECONOMY OUTREACH PENSIONS POOR ACCESS POPULATION GROWTH PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SAVINGS PROBLEM BANKS PRODUCERS PRODUCTIVITY PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC GOOD PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SERVICES PUBLIC SPENDING REAL WAGES REGISTRATION SYSTEM REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVES RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS RETURN ON EQUITY RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS SEWAGE SOCIAL SERVICES SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS SOURCE OF CREDIT STATE PROPERTY STATE PROPERTY MANAGEMENT STOCKS STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUBSIDY COST SUPERVISORY FRAMEWORK SUSTAINABLE GROWTH TAX TAX ADMINISTRATION TAX COLLECTIONS TAX POLICY TAX RATES TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TELECOMMUNICATIONS TRADE BALANCE TRADE FACILITATION TRADING TRANSACTION TRANSACTIONS SYSTEM TRANSPARENCY TRANSPORT TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE TREASURY UNEMPLOYMENT UNION URBANIZATION WAGES WEIGHTS WORLD TRADE World Bank Group Tajikistan : Moderated Growth, Heightened Risks |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia Tajikistan |
| relation |
Tajikistan Economic Report;No.6 |
| description |
Tajikistan s economic growth moderated
to 6.7 percent in the first half of 2014 from 7.5 percent a
year earlier as activity slowed in almost all sectors.
Weaker world economic growth and lower prices for cotton and
aluminum adversely affected the major export-oriented
industries, pushing total industrial growth below 3 percent
from nearly 7 percent a year earlier. Lower inflows of
remittances due to the slowdown in Russia have translated
into lower domestic demand and slower growth in services and
housing construction. Though growth in agricultural output
also moderated due to heavy rains and low temperatures, it
was still a healthy 6 percent. Inflation began to pick up as
food prices rose and tariffs for utilities were adjusted,
reaching 4.7 percent for the first half of 2014 compared to
1.6 percent a year earlier. However, fixed investment grew
swiftly as the public investment program got underway. GDP
growth is projected to ease to 6.5 percent in 2014 because
of the spillover effect from the slowdown in Russia and in
export sales. A Russian slowdown affects Tajikistan largely
through the remittances channel. A slackening in remittances
weighs heavily on household demand, notably demand for
services and housing construction. Inflation pressures are
expected to increase but stable global food prices should
help to keep growth in inflation within a single digit.
Despite slower economic growth the fiscal deficit is
projected to remain unchanged in 2014 because of higher than
expected revenues from foreign trade, reforms in revenue
collection, and spending restraint. The current account
deficit is projected to widen to 3.7 percent of GDP because
of sluggish export growth and the remittance slowdown.
Tajikistan could perhaps benefit from the Russian ban on
import of food from the West but fragile market links,
limited economies of scale, poor access to credit, and
barriers to entry and expansion limit Tajik ability to
benefit from increased Russian demand. |
| format |
Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling |
| author |
World Bank Group |
| author_facet |
World Bank Group |
| author_sort |
World Bank Group |
| title |
Tajikistan : Moderated Growth, Heightened Risks |
| title_short |
Tajikistan : Moderated Growth, Heightened Risks |
| title_full |
Tajikistan : Moderated Growth, Heightened Risks |
| title_fullStr |
Tajikistan : Moderated Growth, Heightened Risks |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Tajikistan : Moderated Growth, Heightened Risks |
| title_sort |
tajikistan : moderated growth, heightened risks |
| publisher |
Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/20302396/tajikistan-moderated-growth-heightened-risks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20674 |
| _version_ |
1764445853138812928 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-206742021-04-23T14:03:56Z Tajikistan : Moderated Growth, Heightened Risks World Bank Group ACCESS TO CREDIT ACCESS TO FINANCE ACCOUNTABILITY ACCOUNTING ACCOUNTING STANDARDS ADB ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SECTOR APPLICATION PROCESS ARREARS ASSET QUALITY BAILOUT BANK COMPLIANCE BANK CREDIT BANKING SECTOR BANKING SUPERVISION BANKING SYSTEM BANKRUPTCY BARRIERS TO ENTRY BASIS POINTS BENEFICIARY BONDS BRANCH NETWORK BRIBE BRIBES BROKERS BUDGET DEFICIT CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL EXPENDITURES CAPITAL GOODS CASH COLLECTIONS CASH MANAGEMENT CASH TRANSFERS CLIMATE CHANGE COLLATERAL COMMERCIAL BANK CONSOLIDATION CONSULTING SERVICES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PROTECTION CONSUMER PROTECTION LAWS CORRUPTION CPI CREDIBILITY CREDIT BUREAUS CREDIT CULTURE CREDIT INFORMATION CREDIT SCORES CREDITOR CREDITORS CURRENCY CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CURRENT ASSETS DEFICITS DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEVALUATION DEVELOPMENT BANK DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC BANKING DOMESTIC DEMAND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ECONOMIES OF SCALE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENTERPRISE PERFORMANCE ENTREPRENEURS EQUIPMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT GROWTH EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL SHOCKS FARMERS FARMING HOUSEHOLDS FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARY FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT FINANCIAL SYSTEM FINANCIAL VIABILITY FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FIXED INVESTMENT FOREIGN BANKS FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENT FORESTRY GOVERNANCE ISSUES GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE GOVERNMENT REVENUE GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GOVERNMENT SUPPORT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH INTEREST RATES HOUSING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMMOVABLE PROPERTY INCOME GROUP INCOME TAX INCREMENTAL COSTS INEQUALITY INFLATION INFORMAL ECONOMY INFORMATION SYSTEM INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INSPECTION SYSTEM INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORY INVESTING INVESTMENT PROJECTS ISLAMIC BANKING ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK JOB CREATION LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE SURVEY LABOR MARKET LACK OF ACCESS LENDERS LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARD LIVING STANDARDS LOAN AGREEMENT LOAN AGREEMENTS LOAN PORTFOLIO LOAN RATES LOAN REPAYMENTS LONG-TERM INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MATURITY MATURITY MISMATCHES METALS MICROFINANCE MIGRATION MINIMUM WAGE MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY NATIONAL BANK NEW BUSINESS NON PERFORMING LOANS NONPERFORMING LOAN NONPERFORMING LOANS NPL OPEN ECONOMY OUTREACH PENSIONS POOR ACCESS POPULATION GROWTH PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE SAVINGS PROBLEM BANKS PRODUCERS PRODUCTIVITY PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS PRUDENTIAL REGULATIONS PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC GOOD PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SERVICES PUBLIC SPENDING REAL WAGES REGISTRATION SYSTEM REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVES RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS RETURN ON EQUITY RISK MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS SEWAGE SOCIAL SERVICES SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS SOURCE OF CREDIT STATE PROPERTY STATE PROPERTY MANAGEMENT STOCKS STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUBSIDY COST SUPERVISORY FRAMEWORK SUSTAINABLE GROWTH TAX TAX ADMINISTRATION TAX COLLECTIONS TAX POLICY TAX RATES TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TELECOMMUNICATIONS TRADE BALANCE TRADE FACILITATION TRADING TRANSACTION TRANSACTIONS SYSTEM TRANSPARENCY TRANSPORT TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE TREASURY UNEMPLOYMENT UNION URBANIZATION WAGES WEIGHTS WORLD TRADE Tajikistan s economic growth moderated to 6.7 percent in the first half of 2014 from 7.5 percent a year earlier as activity slowed in almost all sectors. Weaker world economic growth and lower prices for cotton and aluminum adversely affected the major export-oriented industries, pushing total industrial growth below 3 percent from nearly 7 percent a year earlier. Lower inflows of remittances due to the slowdown in Russia have translated into lower domestic demand and slower growth in services and housing construction. Though growth in agricultural output also moderated due to heavy rains and low temperatures, it was still a healthy 6 percent. Inflation began to pick up as food prices rose and tariffs for utilities were adjusted, reaching 4.7 percent for the first half of 2014 compared to 1.6 percent a year earlier. However, fixed investment grew swiftly as the public investment program got underway. GDP growth is projected to ease to 6.5 percent in 2014 because of the spillover effect from the slowdown in Russia and in export sales. A Russian slowdown affects Tajikistan largely through the remittances channel. A slackening in remittances weighs heavily on household demand, notably demand for services and housing construction. Inflation pressures are expected to increase but stable global food prices should help to keep growth in inflation within a single digit. Despite slower economic growth the fiscal deficit is projected to remain unchanged in 2014 because of higher than expected revenues from foreign trade, reforms in revenue collection, and spending restraint. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 3.7 percent of GDP because of sluggish export growth and the remittance slowdown. Tajikistan could perhaps benefit from the Russian ban on import of food from the West but fragile market links, limited economies of scale, poor access to credit, and barriers to entry and expansion limit Tajik ability to benefit from increased Russian demand. 2014-12-08T18:23:16Z 2014-12-08T18:23:16Z 2014-10 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/20302396/tajikistan-moderated-growth-heightened-risks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20674 English en_US Tajikistan Economic Report;No.6 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Europe and Central Asia Tajikistan |