Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence

This paper revisits and expands the evidence on the impact of trade shocks on intra-state conflict with a large sample of developing countries in the 1960-2010 period. The results suggest that increases in the prices of a country's exported co...

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Main Authors:	Cali, Massimiliano, Mulabdic, Alen
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank Group, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	AGRICULTURE BATTLE CIVIL CONFLICT CIVIL CONFLICTS CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR VARIABLES CIVIL WARS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY EXPORT COMMODITY EXPORTS COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVENESS COMPROMISES CONFLICT CONFLICT EPISODES CONFLICT RESOLUTION CONFLICT RISK CONFLICTS CONSUMERS COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS CRISES DATA SELECTION DEATHS DECOLONIZATION DEGREES OF FREEDOM DEMOCRACIES DEMOCRACY DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS DEPENDENCE DETERRENCE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIVIDEND DOMESTIC ECONOMY DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICES DURATION OF CONFLICT ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC INEQUALITY ECONOMIC RELATIONS ECONOMIC RESEARCH ELECTIONS ETHNIC DIVISIONS ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC POLARIZATION EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SECTOR EXTERNAL SHOCK EXTERNAL SHOCKS FIGHTING FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOREIGN TRADE FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GDPS GLOBAL EXPORTS GOOD GOVERNANCE IMF INCOME INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVELS INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES INNOVATION INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INTENSITY OF CONFLICT INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNAL CONFLICT INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL TRADE JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION INDEX LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMICS MARKET POTENTIAL NATIONS NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES OPEN ACCESS OPPORTUNITY COST OUTPUT PEACE PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS POLARIZATION POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL REGIMES POLITICAL RISK POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEM POLITICAL UNREST PRICE VOLATILITY PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY PUBLIC POLICY REBEL REBEL GROUPS REBELLION REBELLIONS REBELS RECONSTRUCTION REGIONAL TRADE REGRESSION ANALYSIS RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RESULT RESULTS RISK OF CONFLICT RULE OF LAW SOCIAL CONFLICT STATE CONFLICT STATE CONFLICTS TAX THEORY OF CONFLICT TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE FACILITATION TRADE POLICY TRADE RELATION TRADE RELATIONS TRANSMISSION USES VIOLENCE WEALTH WEAPONS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/11/20433130/trade-civil-conflict-revisiting-cross-country-evidence http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20640

id	okr-10986-20640
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-206402021-04-23T14:03:59Z Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence Cali, Massimiliano Mulabdic, Alen AGRICULTURE BATTLE CIVIL CONFLICT CIVIL CONFLICTS CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR VARIABLES CIVIL WARS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY EXPORT COMMODITY EXPORTS COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVENESS COMPROMISES CONFLICT CONFLICT EPISODES CONFLICT RESOLUTION CONFLICT RISK CONFLICTS CONSUMERS COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS CRISES DATA SELECTION DEATHS DECOLONIZATION DEGREES OF FREEDOM DEMOCRACIES DEMOCRACY DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS DEPENDENCE DETERRENCE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIVIDEND DOMESTIC ECONOMY DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICES DURATION OF CONFLICT ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC INEQUALITY ECONOMIC RELATIONS ECONOMIC RESEARCH ELECTIONS ETHNIC DIVISIONS ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC POLARIZATION EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SECTOR EXTERNAL SHOCK EXTERNAL SHOCKS FIGHTING FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOREIGN TRADE FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GDPS GLOBAL EXPORTS GOOD GOVERNANCE IMF INCOME INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVELS INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES INNOVATION INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INTENSITY OF CONFLICT INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNAL CONFLICT INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL TRADE JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION INDEX LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMICS MARKET POTENTIAL NATIONS NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES OPEN ACCESS OPPORTUNITY COST OUTPUT PEACE PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS POLARIZATION POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL REGIMES POLITICAL RISK POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEM POLITICAL UNREST PRICE VOLATILITY PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY PUBLIC POLICY REBEL REBEL GROUPS REBELLION REBELLIONS REBELS RECONSTRUCTION REGIONAL TRADE REGRESSION ANALYSIS RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RESULT RESULTS RISK OF CONFLICT RULE OF LAW SOCIAL CONFLICT STATE CONFLICT STATE CONFLICTS TAX THEORY OF CONFLICT TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE FACILITATION TRADE POLICY TRADE RELATION TRADE RELATIONS TRANSMISSION USES VIOLENCE WEALTH WEAPONS This paper revisits and expands the evidence on the impact of trade shocks on intra-state conflict with a large sample of developing countries in the 1960-2010 period. The results suggest that increases in the prices of a country's exported commodities raise the country's risk of civil conflict and its duration. The effect on conflict risk is mainly driven by the price of point-source commodities, in line with the rapacity effect theory of conflict. However, the paper does not find support for the opportunity cost theory via exported commodities. The analysis also finds that intense trading with contiguous countries is associated with lower duration of intra-state conflict, consistent with the idea that such trade reduces the incentive of contiguous countries to fuel conflict in their neighbor. Trading with neighbors is also associated with a lower risk of conflict, when such trade occurs under trade agreements. By contrast, neither imported commodity prices nor the economic cycle in export markets appears to exert any influence on the probability or duration of conflict. The paper identifies several conditions under which changes in the value of exported commodities cease to matter for conflict probability. 2014-12-03T21:15:13Z 2014-12-03T21:15:13Z 2014-11 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/11/20433130/trade-civil-conflict-revisiting-cross-country-evidence http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20640 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7125 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	AGRICULTURE BATTLE CIVIL CONFLICT CIVIL CONFLICTS CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR VARIABLES CIVIL WARS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY EXPORT COMMODITY EXPORTS COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVENESS COMPROMISES CONFLICT CONFLICT EPISODES CONFLICT RESOLUTION CONFLICT RISK CONFLICTS CONSUMERS COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS CRISES DATA SELECTION DEATHS DECOLONIZATION DEGREES OF FREEDOM DEMOCRACIES DEMOCRACY DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS DEPENDENCE DETERRENCE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIVIDEND DOMESTIC ECONOMY DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICES DURATION OF CONFLICT ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC INEQUALITY ECONOMIC RELATIONS ECONOMIC RESEARCH ELECTIONS ETHNIC DIVISIONS ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC POLARIZATION EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SECTOR EXTERNAL SHOCK EXTERNAL SHOCKS FIGHTING FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOREIGN TRADE FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GDPS GLOBAL EXPORTS GOOD GOVERNANCE IMF INCOME INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVELS INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES INNOVATION INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INTENSITY OF CONFLICT INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNAL CONFLICT INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL TRADE JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION INDEX LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMICS MARKET POTENTIAL NATIONS NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES OPEN ACCESS OPPORTUNITY COST OUTPUT PEACE PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS POLARIZATION POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL REGIMES POLITICAL RISK POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEM POLITICAL UNREST PRICE VOLATILITY PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY PUBLIC POLICY REBEL REBEL GROUPS REBELLION REBELLIONS REBELS RECONSTRUCTION REGIONAL TRADE REGRESSION ANALYSIS RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RESULT RESULTS RISK OF CONFLICT RULE OF LAW SOCIAL CONFLICT STATE CONFLICT STATE CONFLICTS TAX THEORY OF CONFLICT TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE FACILITATION TRADE POLICY TRADE RELATION TRADE RELATIONS TRANSMISSION USES VIOLENCE WEALTH WEAPONS
spellingShingle	AGRICULTURE BATTLE CIVIL CONFLICT CIVIL CONFLICTS CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR VARIABLES CIVIL WARS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY EXPORT COMMODITY EXPORTS COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVENESS COMPROMISES CONFLICT CONFLICT EPISODES CONFLICT RESOLUTION CONFLICT RISK CONFLICTS CONSUMERS COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS CRISES DATA SELECTION DEATHS DECOLONIZATION DEGREES OF FREEDOM DEMOCRACIES DEMOCRACY DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS DEPENDENCE DETERRENCE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIVIDEND DOMESTIC ECONOMY DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICES DURATION OF CONFLICT ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC INEQUALITY ECONOMIC RELATIONS ECONOMIC RESEARCH ELECTIONS ETHNIC DIVISIONS ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC POLARIZATION EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SECTOR EXTERNAL SHOCK EXTERNAL SHOCKS FIGHTING FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOREIGN TRADE FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GDPS GLOBAL EXPORTS GOOD GOVERNANCE IMF INCOME INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVELS INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES INNOVATION INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INTENSITY OF CONFLICT INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNAL CONFLICT INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL TRADE JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION INDEX LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMICS MARKET POTENTIAL NATIONS NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES OPEN ACCESS OPPORTUNITY COST OUTPUT PEACE PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS POLARIZATION POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL REGIMES POLITICAL RISK POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEM POLITICAL UNREST PRICE VOLATILITY PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY PUBLIC POLICY REBEL REBEL GROUPS REBELLION REBELLIONS REBELS RECONSTRUCTION REGIONAL TRADE REGRESSION ANALYSIS RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RESULT RESULTS RISK OF CONFLICT RULE OF LAW SOCIAL CONFLICT STATE CONFLICT STATE CONFLICTS TAX THEORY OF CONFLICT TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE FACILITATION TRADE POLICY TRADE RELATION TRADE RELATIONS TRANSMISSION USES VIOLENCE WEALTH WEAPONS Cali, Massimiliano Mulabdic, Alen Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7125
description	This paper revisits and expands the evidence on the impact of trade shocks on intra-state conflict with a large sample of developing countries in the 1960-2010 period. The results suggest that increases in the prices of a country's exported commodities raise the country's risk of civil conflict and its duration. The effect on conflict risk is mainly driven by the price of point-source commodities, in line with the rapacity effect theory of conflict. However, the paper does not find support for the opportunity cost theory via exported commodities. The analysis also finds that intense trading with contiguous countries is associated with lower duration of intra-state conflict, consistent with the idea that such trade reduces the incentive of contiguous countries to fuel conflict in their neighbor. Trading with neighbors is also associated with a lower risk of conflict, when such trade occurs under trade agreements. By contrast, neither imported commodity prices nor the economic cycle in export markets appears to exert any influence on the probability or duration of conflict. The paper identifies several conditions under which changes in the value of exported commodities cease to matter for conflict probability.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Cali, Massimiliano Mulabdic, Alen
author_facet	Cali, Massimiliano Mulabdic, Alen
author_sort	Cali, Massimiliano
title	Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence
title_short	Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence
title_full	Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence
title_fullStr	Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence
title_full_unstemmed	Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence
title_sort	trade and civil conflict : revisiting the cross-country evidence
publisher	World Bank Group, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/11/20433130/trade-civil-conflict-revisiting-cross-country-evidence http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20640
_version_	1764446920179187712

Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence

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