Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal
This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C...
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Washington, DC: World Bank
2014
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20595 |
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okr-10986-205952021-04-23T14:03:56Z Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal World Bank Group 4 degree celsius warmer world adaptation agricultural production agriculture cities aridity climate change climate extremes climate impacts climate policy climate risks climate variability coasts coral reefs crop yield disaster risk management drought ecosystems extreme weather floods food security glaciers greenhouse gas emissions heat extremes heat waves mitigation monsoon regional climate impacts resilience sea-level rise snow melt temperature changes tropical cyclones water water resources This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services, and coastal vulnerability for affected populations. Data show that dramatic climate changes, heat, and weather extremes are already impacting people, damaging crops and coastlines, and putting food, water, and energy security at risk. Across the three regions studied in this report, record-breaking temperatures are occurring more frequently, rainfall has increased in intensity in some places, while drought-prone regions are getting dryer. The poor and underprivileged, as well as the elderly and children, are found to be hit the hardest. There is growing evidence that even with very ambitious mitigation action, warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century is already locked into the Earth’s atmospheric system, and climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable. If the planet continues warming to 4°C, climatic conditions, heat, and other weather extremes considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the new climate normal—a world of increased risks and instability. The consequences for development would be severe as crop yields decline, water resources change, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise. The task of promoting human development, ending poverty, increasing global prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a 2°C world, but in a 4°C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the climate impacts being felt today and the unavoidable consequences of a rapidly warming world. The benefits of strong, early action on climate change -- action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies -- far outweigh the costs. Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming to below 2°C. But the time to act is now. 2014-11-22T18:53:11Z 2014-11-22T18:53:11Z 2014-11-23 978-1-4648-0437-3 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20595 en_US CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo Washington, DC: World Bank Publications & Research :: Publication Africa East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Middle East and North Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
en_US |
| topic |
4 degree celsius warmer world adaptation agricultural production agriculture cities aridity climate change climate extremes climate impacts climate policy climate risks climate variability coasts coral reefs crop yield disaster risk management drought ecosystems extreme weather floods food security glaciers greenhouse gas emissions heat extremes heat waves mitigation monsoon regional climate impacts resilience sea-level rise snow melt temperature changes tropical cyclones water water resources |
| spellingShingle |
4 degree celsius warmer world adaptation agricultural production agriculture cities aridity climate change climate extremes climate impacts climate policy climate risks climate variability coasts coral reefs crop yield disaster risk management drought ecosystems extreme weather floods food security glaciers greenhouse gas emissions heat extremes heat waves mitigation monsoon regional climate impacts resilience sea-level rise snow melt temperature changes tropical cyclones water water resources World Bank Group Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal |
| geographic_facet |
Africa East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Middle East and North Africa |
| description |
This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia. Building on earlier Turn Down the Heat reports, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C and 4°C warming above pre-industrial temperatures on agricultural production, water resources, ecosystem services, and coastal vulnerability for affected populations.
Data show that dramatic climate changes, heat, and weather extremes are already impacting people, damaging crops and coastlines, and putting food, water, and energy security at risk. Across the three regions studied in this report, record-breaking temperatures are occurring more frequently, rainfall has increased in intensity in some places, while drought-prone regions are getting dryer.
The poor and underprivileged, as well as the elderly and children, are found to be hit the hardest. There is growing evidence that even with very ambitious mitigation action, warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century is already locked into the Earth’s atmospheric system, and climate change impacts such as extreme heat events may now be unavoidable. If the planet continues warming to 4°C, climatic conditions, heat, and other weather extremes considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the new climate normal—a world of increased risks and instability.
The consequences for development would be severe as crop yields decline, water resources change, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise. The task of promoting human development, ending poverty, increasing global prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a 2°C world, but in a 4°C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the climate impacts being felt today and the unavoidable consequences of a rapidly warming world.
The benefits of strong, early action on climate change -- action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies -- far outweigh the costs. Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming to below 2°C. But the time to act is now. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Publication |
| author |
World Bank Group |
| author_facet |
World Bank Group |
| author_sort |
World Bank Group |
| title |
Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal |
| title_short |
Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal |
| title_full |
Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal |
| title_fullStr |
Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Turn Down the Heat : Confronting the New Climate Normal |
| title_sort |
turn down the heat : confronting the new climate normal |
| publisher |
Washington, DC: World Bank |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20595 |
| _version_ |
1764445827675193344 |