Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration
The paper investigates the demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected population aging and low or negative growth of the population and labor force in the North. Without further immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia,...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/12/20190000/demographic-alternatives-aging-industrial-countries-increased-total-fertility-rate-labor-force-participation-or-immigration http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20385 |
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okr-10986-20385 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English en_US |
| topic |
AGE GROUP AGE GROUPS ANNUAL GROWTH BABIES BENEFIT LEVEL BENEFIT LEVELS BENEFITS OF MIGRATION BIRTH RATES BRAIN DRAIN CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL STOCK CHANGE IN POPULATION CHANGE IN POPULATION SIZE CHILD REARING CHILD-BEARING CHILDREN PER FAMILY CHILDREN PER WOMAN CITIZENS CONTRIBUTION PAYMENTS CONTRIBUTION RATE CONTRIBUTION SYSTEM COUNTRY OF ORIGIN CURRENT LABOR FORCE DEFINED BENEFITS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS DEPENDENCY RATIO DEPENDENCY RATIOS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIFFERENTIATED IMPACT DISABILITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS EDUCATED WOMEN EFFECT ON POPULATION GROWTH ELDERLY ELDERLY POPULATION EMPLOYEE EMPLOYMENT POLICIES ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT EXISTING POPULATION FACTOR MARKETS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FAMILY MEMBERS FEMALE LABOR FEMALE LABOR FORCE FERTILITY FERTILITY RATE FERTILITY RATES FIRST BIRTH FIRST CHILD GENDER GAP GENDER GAPS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL COMMISSION GLOBAL COMMISSION ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HEALTH CARE HEALTH INSURANCE HOST COUNTRIES HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION POLICY IMPACT OF MIGRATION IMPACT OF POPULATION IMPACT ON FERTILITY INCOME INCOME SUPPORT INCREASE IN LABOR INCREASED FERTILITY RATES INFORMAL SECTOR INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL POLICY ISSUES OF POPULATION JOB CREATION JOB LOSSES JOBS KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY LABOR DEMAND LABOR ECONOMICS LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE GROWTH LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKET POLICIES LABOR MARKET PROBLEMS LABOR MARKETS LABOR MIGRANTS LABOR MIGRATION LABOUR LABOUR FORCE LABOUR MARKETS LARGE-SCALE IMMIGRATION LIFE EXPECTANCY LIFE-LONG LEARNING LIFELONG LEARNING LONG-RUN EFFECTS LONGER LIFE LOW FERTILITY LOWER FERTILITY MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES MIGRANT MIGRANT WORKERS MIGRANT-SENDING COUNTRIES MIGRATION DATA MIGRATION FLOWS MIGRATION POLICY MORAL HAZARD MORTALITY MORTALITY RATE NATIONAL INTEREST NATIONAL SECURITY NATIONALS NATIVE WORKERS NOTIONAL ACCOUNTS NUMBER OF BIRTHS NUMBER OF CHILDREN NUMBER OF CHILDREN PER WOMAN NUMBER OF MIGRANTS NUMBER OF PERSONS NUMBER OF WOMEN NUMBER OF WOMEN OF CHILD-BEARING AGE OLD-AGE OPPORTUNITY COSTS PARENTAL LEAVE PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN PAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSION SYSTEM PAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSION SYSTEMS PAY-AS-YOU-GO SYSTEM PENSION PENSION BENEFIT PENSION BENEFITS PENSION INCOME PENSION PAYMENTS PENSION REFORM PENSION SCHEME PENSION SCHEMES PENSION SYSTEM PENSION SYSTEMS PENSIONS PERSONAL HEALTH POLICY AFFECT POLICY DECISIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL ECONOMY POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT POPULATION DYNAMICS POPULATION EFFECT POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION POLICY POPULATION RESEARCH POPULATION SHIFTS POPULATION STRUCTURE PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROPERTY RIGHTS PUBLIC PENSION PUBLIC PENSIONS PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RATE OF RETURN REAL WAGES REFUGEES REMITTANCES REPLACEMENT LEVEL REPLACEMENT RATE RETIREES RETIREMENT RETIREMENT AGE RETIREMENT INCOME RETIREMENT PERIOD RETURN MIGRATION SKILL LEVEL SMALL COUNTRIES SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL BENEFITS SOCIAL POLICY SOCIAL PROGRAMS SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SECURITY STATE UNIVERSITY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TERRORIST TOTAL LABOR FORCE TRADE UNIONS TRANSFER OF KNOWLEDGE UNEMPLOYMENT UNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISION WORK FORCE WORKER WORKING POPULATION WORLD POPULATION YOUNG AGE YOUNG AGES YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT |
| spellingShingle |
AGE GROUP AGE GROUPS ANNUAL GROWTH BABIES BENEFIT LEVEL BENEFIT LEVELS BENEFITS OF MIGRATION BIRTH RATES BRAIN DRAIN CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL STOCK CHANGE IN POPULATION CHANGE IN POPULATION SIZE CHILD REARING CHILD-BEARING CHILDREN PER FAMILY CHILDREN PER WOMAN CITIZENS CONTRIBUTION PAYMENTS CONTRIBUTION RATE CONTRIBUTION SYSTEM COUNTRY OF ORIGIN CURRENT LABOR FORCE DEFINED BENEFITS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS DEPENDENCY RATIO DEPENDENCY RATIOS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIFFERENTIATED IMPACT DISABILITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS EDUCATED WOMEN EFFECT ON POPULATION GROWTH ELDERLY ELDERLY POPULATION EMPLOYEE EMPLOYMENT POLICIES ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT EXISTING POPULATION FACTOR MARKETS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FAMILY MEMBERS FEMALE LABOR FEMALE LABOR FORCE FERTILITY FERTILITY RATE FERTILITY RATES FIRST BIRTH FIRST CHILD GENDER GAP GENDER GAPS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL COMMISSION GLOBAL COMMISSION ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HEALTH CARE HEALTH INSURANCE HOST COUNTRIES HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION POLICY IMPACT OF MIGRATION IMPACT OF POPULATION IMPACT ON FERTILITY INCOME INCOME SUPPORT INCREASE IN LABOR INCREASED FERTILITY RATES INFORMAL SECTOR INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL POLICY ISSUES OF POPULATION JOB CREATION JOB LOSSES JOBS KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY LABOR DEMAND LABOR ECONOMICS LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE GROWTH LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKET POLICIES LABOR MARKET PROBLEMS LABOR MARKETS LABOR MIGRANTS LABOR MIGRATION LABOUR LABOUR FORCE LABOUR MARKETS LARGE-SCALE IMMIGRATION LIFE EXPECTANCY LIFE-LONG LEARNING LIFELONG LEARNING LONG-RUN EFFECTS LONGER LIFE LOW FERTILITY LOWER FERTILITY MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES MIGRANT MIGRANT WORKERS MIGRANT-SENDING COUNTRIES MIGRATION DATA MIGRATION FLOWS MIGRATION POLICY MORAL HAZARD MORTALITY MORTALITY RATE NATIONAL INTEREST NATIONAL SECURITY NATIONALS NATIVE WORKERS NOTIONAL ACCOUNTS NUMBER OF BIRTHS NUMBER OF CHILDREN NUMBER OF CHILDREN PER WOMAN NUMBER OF MIGRANTS NUMBER OF PERSONS NUMBER OF WOMEN NUMBER OF WOMEN OF CHILD-BEARING AGE OLD-AGE OPPORTUNITY COSTS PARENTAL LEAVE PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN PAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSION SYSTEM PAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSION SYSTEMS PAY-AS-YOU-GO SYSTEM PENSION PENSION BENEFIT PENSION BENEFITS PENSION INCOME PENSION PAYMENTS PENSION REFORM PENSION SCHEME PENSION SCHEMES PENSION SYSTEM PENSION SYSTEMS PENSIONS PERSONAL HEALTH POLICY AFFECT POLICY DECISIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL ECONOMY POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT POPULATION DYNAMICS POPULATION EFFECT POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION POLICY POPULATION RESEARCH POPULATION SHIFTS POPULATION STRUCTURE PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROPERTY RIGHTS PUBLIC PENSION PUBLIC PENSIONS PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RATE OF RETURN REAL WAGES REFUGEES REMITTANCES REPLACEMENT LEVEL REPLACEMENT RATE RETIREES RETIREMENT RETIREMENT AGE RETIREMENT INCOME RETIREMENT PERIOD RETURN MIGRATION SKILL LEVEL SMALL COUNTRIES SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL BENEFITS SOCIAL POLICY SOCIAL PROGRAMS SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SECURITY STATE UNIVERSITY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TERRORIST TOTAL LABOR FORCE TRADE UNIONS TRANSFER OF KNOWLEDGE UNEMPLOYMENT UNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISION WORK FORCE WORKER WORKING POPULATION WORLD POPULATION YOUNG AGE YOUNG AGES YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT Holzmann, Robert Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration |
| relation |
Social protection and labor discussion paper;no. 0540 |
| description |
The paper investigates the
demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected
population aging and low or negative growth of the
population and labor force in the North. Without further
immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia, the
high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific, China,
and, to a lesser extent, North America is projected to be
reduced by 29 million by 2025 and by 244 million by 2050. In
contrast, the labor force in the South is projected to add
some 1.55 billion, predominantly in South and Central Asia
and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic policy scenarios
to deal with the projected shrinking of the labor forth in
the North include moving the total fertility rate back to
replacement levels, increasing labor force participation of
the existing population through a variety of measures, and
filling the demographic gaps through enhanced immigration.
The estimations indicate that each of these policy scenarios
may partially or even fully compensate for the projected
labor force gap by 2050. But a review of the policy measures
to make these demographic scenarios happen also suggests
that governments may not be able to initiate or accommodate
the required change. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Working Paper |
| author |
Holzmann, Robert |
| author_facet |
Holzmann, Robert |
| author_sort |
Holzmann, Robert |
| title |
Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration |
| title_short |
Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration |
| title_full |
Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration |
| title_fullStr |
Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration |
| title_sort |
demographic alternatives for aging industrial countries : increased total fertility rate, labor force participation, or immigration |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/12/20190000/demographic-alternatives-aging-industrial-countries-increased-total-fertility-rate-labor-force-participation-or-immigration http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20385 |
| _version_ |
1764445218991505408 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-203852021-04-23T14:03:55Z Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration Holzmann, Robert AGE GROUP AGE GROUPS ANNUAL GROWTH BABIES BENEFIT LEVEL BENEFIT LEVELS BENEFITS OF MIGRATION BIRTH RATES BRAIN DRAIN CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL STOCK CHANGE IN POPULATION CHANGE IN POPULATION SIZE CHILD REARING CHILD-BEARING CHILDREN PER FAMILY CHILDREN PER WOMAN CITIZENS CONTRIBUTION PAYMENTS CONTRIBUTION RATE CONTRIBUTION SYSTEM COUNTRY OF ORIGIN CURRENT LABOR FORCE DEFINED BENEFITS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS DEPENDENCY RATIO DEPENDENCY RATIOS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DIFFERENTIATED IMPACT DISABILITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS EDUCATED WOMEN EFFECT ON POPULATION GROWTH ELDERLY ELDERLY POPULATION EMPLOYEE EMPLOYMENT POLICIES ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT EXISTING POPULATION FACTOR MARKETS FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FAMILY MEMBERS FEMALE LABOR FEMALE LABOR FORCE FERTILITY FERTILITY RATE FERTILITY RATES FIRST BIRTH FIRST CHILD GENDER GAP GENDER GAPS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL COMMISSION GLOBAL COMMISSION ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HEALTH CARE HEALTH INSURANCE HOST COUNTRIES HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION IMMIGRATION POLICY IMPACT OF MIGRATION IMPACT OF POPULATION IMPACT ON FERTILITY INCOME INCOME SUPPORT INCREASE IN LABOR INCREASED FERTILITY RATES INFORMAL SECTOR INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL POLICY ISSUES OF POPULATION JOB CREATION JOB LOSSES JOBS KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY LABOR DEMAND LABOR ECONOMICS LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE GROWTH LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKET POLICIES LABOR MARKET PROBLEMS LABOR MARKETS LABOR MIGRANTS LABOR MIGRATION LABOUR LABOUR FORCE LABOUR MARKETS LARGE-SCALE IMMIGRATION LIFE EXPECTANCY LIFE-LONG LEARNING LIFELONG LEARNING LONG-RUN EFFECTS LONGER LIFE LOW FERTILITY LOWER FERTILITY MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES MIGRANT MIGRANT WORKERS MIGRANT-SENDING COUNTRIES MIGRATION DATA MIGRATION FLOWS MIGRATION POLICY MORAL HAZARD MORTALITY MORTALITY RATE NATIONAL INTEREST NATIONAL SECURITY NATIONALS NATIVE WORKERS NOTIONAL ACCOUNTS NUMBER OF BIRTHS NUMBER OF CHILDREN NUMBER OF CHILDREN PER WOMAN NUMBER OF MIGRANTS NUMBER OF PERSONS NUMBER OF WOMEN NUMBER OF WOMEN OF CHILD-BEARING AGE OLD-AGE OPPORTUNITY COSTS PARENTAL LEAVE PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN PAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSION SYSTEM PAY-AS-YOU-GO PENSION SYSTEMS PAY-AS-YOU-GO SYSTEM PENSION PENSION BENEFIT PENSION BENEFITS PENSION INCOME PENSION PAYMENTS PENSION REFORM PENSION SCHEME PENSION SCHEMES PENSION SYSTEM PENSION SYSTEMS PENSIONS PERSONAL HEALTH POLICY AFFECT POLICY DECISIONS POLICY IMPLICATIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL ECONOMY POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT POPULATION DYNAMICS POPULATION EFFECT POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION POLICY POPULATION RESEARCH POPULATION SHIFTS POPULATION STRUCTURE PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROPERTY RIGHTS PUBLIC PENSION PUBLIC PENSIONS PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY RATE OF RETURN REAL WAGES REFUGEES REMITTANCES REPLACEMENT LEVEL REPLACEMENT RATE RETIREES RETIREMENT RETIREMENT AGE RETIREMENT INCOME RETIREMENT PERIOD RETURN MIGRATION SKILL LEVEL SMALL COUNTRIES SOCIAL AFFAIRS SOCIAL BENEFITS SOCIAL POLICY SOCIAL PROGRAMS SOCIAL PROTECTION SOCIAL SECURITY STATE UNIVERSITY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TERRORIST TOTAL LABOR FORCE TRADE UNIONS TRANSFER OF KNOWLEDGE UNEMPLOYMENT UNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISION WORK FORCE WORKER WORKING POPULATION WORLD POPULATION YOUNG AGE YOUNG AGES YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT The paper investigates the demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected population aging and low or negative growth of the population and labor force in the North. Without further immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia, the high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific, China, and, to a lesser extent, North America is projected to be reduced by 29 million by 2025 and by 244 million by 2050. In contrast, the labor force in the South is projected to add some 1.55 billion, predominantly in South and Central Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic policy scenarios to deal with the projected shrinking of the labor forth in the North include moving the total fertility rate back to replacement levels, increasing labor force participation of the existing population through a variety of measures, and filling the demographic gaps through enhanced immigration. The estimations indicate that each of these policy scenarios may partially or even fully compensate for the projected labor force gap by 2050. But a review of the policy measures to make these demographic scenarios happen also suggests that governments may not be able to initiate or accommodate the required change. 2014-10-07T15:37:47Z 2014-10-07T15:37:47Z 2005-12 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/12/20190000/demographic-alternatives-aging-industrial-countries-increased-total-fertility-rate-labor-force-participation-or-immigration http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20385 English en_US Social protection and labor discussion paper;no. 0540 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Working Paper |