Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries : Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration
The paper investigates the demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected population aging and low or negative growth of the population and labor force in the North. Without further immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia,...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/12/20190000/demographic-alternatives-aging-industrial-countries-increased-total-fertility-rate-labor-force-participation-or-immigration http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20385 |
| Summary: | The paper investigates the
demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected
population aging and low or negative growth of the
population and labor force in the North. Without further
immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia, the
high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific, China,
and, to a lesser extent, North America is projected to be
reduced by 29 million by 2025 and by 244 million by 2050. In
contrast, the labor force in the South is projected to add
some 1.55 billion, predominantly in South and Central Asia
and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic policy scenarios
to deal with the projected shrinking of the labor forth in
the North include moving the total fertility rate back to
replacement levels, increasing labor force participation of
the existing population through a variety of measures, and
filling the demographic gaps through enhanced immigration.
The estimations indicate that each of these policy scenarios
may partially or even fully compensate for the projected
labor force gap by 2050. But a review of the policy measures
to make these demographic scenarios happen also suggests
that governments may not be able to initiate or accommodate
the required change. |
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