External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars

The authors combine an empirical model of external intervention, with a theoretical model of civil war duration. Their empirical model of intervention allows them to analyze civil war duration, using "expected" rather than "actual&qu...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., Sambanis, Nicholas
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	BOUNDARIES CIVIL CONFLICTS CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR DATA CIVIL WAR DATABASE CIVIL WARS COLD WAR COMBAT COMBAT BETWEEN GROUPS COMMODITY PRICE UNCERTAINTY CONFLICT CRIME DEBT DURATION OF CONFLICTS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC MODEL OF GUERRILLA WARFARE ECONOMICS OF DEFENSE EFFECTIVENESS OF REBELS ETHNIC CONFLICTS ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUP ETHNIC POLARIZATION ETHNICALLY DIVERSE SOCIETIES EXTERNAL INTERVENTION EXTERNAL INTERVENTIONS EXTERNAL THIRD PARTY FOREIGN INTERVENTION FOREIGN INVESTORS FORM OF MILITARY GOVERNMENT ARMY GOVERNMENT REPRESSION GUERRILLA WARFARE HAZARD FUNCTION HAZARD OF WAR HOMOGENOUS SOCIETIES INTERNATIONAL SECURITY INTERNATIONAL WAR INTRASTATE CONFLICTS JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION MASSIVE ONSLAUGHTS MILITARY CAPABILITY MILITARY PERSONNEL NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENTS PEACE PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE RESEARCH PEACEKEEPING PEACEMAKING POLARIZATION POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL VIOLENCE PREDATOR-PREY MODEL PROBABILITY OF DURATION OF WAR REBEL COHESION REBEL FIGHTING FORCE REBEL FORCES REBEL MOVEMENT REBEL ORGANIZATIONS REBEL VICTORY REBELLION REBELLIONS REBELS FORCES RISK OF WAR SOCIAL POLARIZATION SOLDIERS STATE CONFLICT STATE CONFLICTS STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE TERRORISM WAR COUNTRY WAR DURATION WAR PROJECT WAR THEORY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/09/693318/external-interventions-duration-civil-wars http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19794

id	okr-10986-19794
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-197942021-04-23T14:03:46Z External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. Sambanis, Nicholas BOUNDARIES CIVIL CONFLICTS CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR DATA CIVIL WAR DATABASE CIVIL WARS COLD WAR COMBAT COMBAT BETWEEN GROUPS COMMODITY PRICE UNCERTAINTY CONFLICT CRIME DEBT DURATION OF CONFLICTS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC MODEL OF GUERRILLA WARFARE ECONOMICS OF DEFENSE EFFECTIVENESS OF REBELS ETHNIC CONFLICTS ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUP ETHNIC POLARIZATION ETHNICALLY DIVERSE SOCIETIES EXTERNAL INTERVENTION EXTERNAL INTERVENTIONS EXTERNAL THIRD PARTY FOREIGN INTERVENTION FOREIGN INVESTORS FORM OF MILITARY GOVERNMENT ARMY GOVERNMENT REPRESSION GUERRILLA WARFARE HAZARD FUNCTION HAZARD OF WAR HOMOGENOUS SOCIETIES INTERNATIONAL SECURITY INTERNATIONAL WAR INTRASTATE CONFLICTS JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION MASSIVE ONSLAUGHTS MILITARY CAPABILITY MILITARY PERSONNEL NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENTS PEACE PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE RESEARCH PEACEKEEPING PEACEMAKING POLARIZATION POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL VIOLENCE PREDATOR-PREY MODEL PROBABILITY OF DURATION OF WAR REBEL COHESION REBEL FIGHTING FORCE REBEL FORCES REBEL MOVEMENT REBEL ORGANIZATIONS REBEL VICTORY REBELLION REBELLIONS REBELS FORCES RISK OF WAR SOCIAL POLARIZATION SOLDIERS STATE CONFLICT STATE CONFLICTS STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE TERRORISM WAR COUNTRY WAR DURATION WAR PROJECT WAR THEORY The authors combine an empirical model of external intervention, with a theoretical model of civil war duration. Their empirical model of intervention allows them to analyze civil war duration, using "expected" rather than "actual" external intervention as an explanatory variable in the duration model. Unlike previous studies, they find that external intervention is positively associated with the duration of civil war. They distinguish partial third-party interventions that extend the length of war, from multilateral "peace" operations, which have a mandate to restore peace without taking sides - and which typically take place at war's end, or at least when both sides have agreed to a cease-fire. In a future paper, the authors will examine whether partial third-party interventions - whatever their effect on a war's duration - increase the risk of war's recurrence. If that proves true, then even if interventions reduce the length of civil war, they may do so at the cost of further destabilizing the political system, and sowing the seeds of future rebellion. 2014-08-27T21:01:10Z 2014-08-27T21:01:10Z 2000-09 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/09/693318/external-interventions-duration-civil-wars http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19794 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2433 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	BOUNDARIES CIVIL CONFLICTS CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR DATA CIVIL WAR DATABASE CIVIL WARS COLD WAR COMBAT COMBAT BETWEEN GROUPS COMMODITY PRICE UNCERTAINTY CONFLICT CRIME DEBT DURATION OF CONFLICTS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC MODEL OF GUERRILLA WARFARE ECONOMICS OF DEFENSE EFFECTIVENESS OF REBELS ETHNIC CONFLICTS ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUP ETHNIC POLARIZATION ETHNICALLY DIVERSE SOCIETIES EXTERNAL INTERVENTION EXTERNAL INTERVENTIONS EXTERNAL THIRD PARTY FOREIGN INTERVENTION FOREIGN INVESTORS FORM OF MILITARY GOVERNMENT ARMY GOVERNMENT REPRESSION GUERRILLA WARFARE HAZARD FUNCTION HAZARD OF WAR HOMOGENOUS SOCIETIES INTERNATIONAL SECURITY INTERNATIONAL WAR INTRASTATE CONFLICTS JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION MASSIVE ONSLAUGHTS MILITARY CAPABILITY MILITARY PERSONNEL NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENTS PEACE PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE RESEARCH PEACEKEEPING PEACEMAKING POLARIZATION POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL VIOLENCE PREDATOR-PREY MODEL PROBABILITY OF DURATION OF WAR REBEL COHESION REBEL FIGHTING FORCE REBEL FORCES REBEL MOVEMENT REBEL ORGANIZATIONS REBEL VICTORY REBELLION REBELLIONS REBELS FORCES RISK OF WAR SOCIAL POLARIZATION SOLDIERS STATE CONFLICT STATE CONFLICTS STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE TERRORISM WAR COUNTRY WAR DURATION WAR PROJECT WAR THEORY
spellingShingle	BOUNDARIES CIVIL CONFLICTS CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR DATA CIVIL WAR DATABASE CIVIL WARS COLD WAR COMBAT COMBAT BETWEEN GROUPS COMMODITY PRICE UNCERTAINTY CONFLICT CRIME DEBT DURATION OF CONFLICTS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC MODEL OF GUERRILLA WARFARE ECONOMICS OF DEFENSE EFFECTIVENESS OF REBELS ETHNIC CONFLICTS ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUP ETHNIC POLARIZATION ETHNICALLY DIVERSE SOCIETIES EXTERNAL INTERVENTION EXTERNAL INTERVENTIONS EXTERNAL THIRD PARTY FOREIGN INTERVENTION FOREIGN INVESTORS FORM OF MILITARY GOVERNMENT ARMY GOVERNMENT REPRESSION GUERRILLA WARFARE HAZARD FUNCTION HAZARD OF WAR HOMOGENOUS SOCIETIES INTERNATIONAL SECURITY INTERNATIONAL WAR INTRASTATE CONFLICTS JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION MASSIVE ONSLAUGHTS MILITARY CAPABILITY MILITARY PERSONNEL NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENTS PEACE PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE RESEARCH PEACEKEEPING PEACEMAKING POLARIZATION POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL VIOLENCE PREDATOR-PREY MODEL PROBABILITY OF DURATION OF WAR REBEL COHESION REBEL FIGHTING FORCE REBEL FORCES REBEL MOVEMENT REBEL ORGANIZATIONS REBEL VICTORY REBELLION REBELLIONS REBELS FORCES RISK OF WAR SOCIAL POLARIZATION SOLDIERS STATE CONFLICT STATE CONFLICTS STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE TERRORISM WAR COUNTRY WAR DURATION WAR PROJECT WAR THEORY Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. Sambanis, Nicholas External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2433
description	The authors combine an empirical model of external intervention, with a theoretical model of civil war duration. Their empirical model of intervention allows them to analyze civil war duration, using "expected" rather than "actual" external intervention as an explanatory variable in the duration model. Unlike previous studies, they find that external intervention is positively associated with the duration of civil war. They distinguish partial third-party interventions that extend the length of war, from multilateral "peace" operations, which have a mandate to restore peace without taking sides - and which typically take place at war's end, or at least when both sides have agreed to a cease-fire. In a future paper, the authors will examine whether partial third-party interventions - whatever their effect on a war's duration - increase the risk of war's recurrence. If that proves true, then even if interventions reduce the length of civil war, they may do so at the cost of further destabilizing the political system, and sowing the seeds of future rebellion.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. Sambanis, Nicholas
author_facet	Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. Sambanis, Nicholas
author_sort	Elbadawi, Ibrahim A.
title	External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars
title_short	External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars
title_full	External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars
title_fullStr	External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars
title_full_unstemmed	External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars
title_sort	external interventions and the duration of civil wars
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/09/693318/external-interventions-duration-civil-wars http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19794
_version_	1764441417181036544

External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars

Similar Items