Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport : What Economic Regulators Should Know, and Why
Forecasting has long been a challenge, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology, and software, should allow much better forecasting than t...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/09/693062/forecasting-demand-privatized-transport-economic-regulators-know http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19786 |
| id |
okr-10986-19786 |
|---|---|
| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| spelling |
okr-10986-197862021-04-23T14:03:44Z Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport : What Economic Regulators Should Know, and Why Trujillo, Lourdes Quinet, Emile Estache, Antonio ACCOUNTING BENEFIT ANALYSIS CONSUMER SURPLUS CONSUMERS COST MINIMIZATION DEMAND ANALYSIS DEMAND FORECASTING DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE RATES EXPENDITURES EXPORTS EXTERNALITIES FIXED COSTS FORECASTING MODELS FORECASTING SERVICES FORECASTS INCOME INCOME EFFECT INCOME EFFECTS INCOME ELASTICITY INFLATION INSURANCE LARGE CITIES LOW TARIFFS M1 MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MARGINAL COST MARKET POWER MERCHANDISE MICROECONOMICS MONOPOLIES NETWORK EXTERNALITIES OPERATING EXPENSES PENALTIES PERVERSE INCENTIVES PRICE CAPS PRICE DISCRIMINATION PRICING POLICIES PRICING STRATEGIES PRICING STRATEGY PRIVATIZATION PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PURE PROFIT REGULATORY REGIMES SUBSTITUTES TRANSPORT UNDERESTIMATES VALUATION VOTERS Forecasting has long been a challenge, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology, and software, should allow much better forecasting than transport ministries, or regulatory agencies typically observe. Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More attention is paid to risk under privatization, than when investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be able to judge traffic studies done by operators, and to learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many governments, and regulators avoid good demand, modeling out of lack of conviction that theory, and models can do better than the "old hands" of the sector. This is dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business. For projects amounting to investments of $ 100-200 million, a cost of $ 100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting firms are willing to sell guarantees, or insurance with their forecasts, to cover significant gaps between forecasts, and reality. 2014-08-27T20:41:57Z 2014-08-27T20:41:57Z 2000-09 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/09/693062/forecasting-demand-privatized-transport-economic-regulators-know http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19786 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2446 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ACCOUNTING BENEFIT ANALYSIS CONSUMER SURPLUS CONSUMERS COST MINIMIZATION DEMAND ANALYSIS DEMAND FORECASTING DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE RATES EXPENDITURES EXPORTS EXTERNALITIES FIXED COSTS FORECASTING MODELS FORECASTING SERVICES FORECASTS INCOME INCOME EFFECT INCOME EFFECTS INCOME ELASTICITY INFLATION INSURANCE LARGE CITIES LOW TARIFFS M1 MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MARGINAL COST MARKET POWER MERCHANDISE MICROECONOMICS MONOPOLIES NETWORK EXTERNALITIES OPERATING EXPENSES PENALTIES PERVERSE INCENTIVES PRICE CAPS PRICE DISCRIMINATION PRICING POLICIES PRICING STRATEGIES PRICING STRATEGY PRIVATIZATION PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PURE PROFIT REGULATORY REGIMES SUBSTITUTES TRANSPORT UNDERESTIMATES VALUATION VOTERS |
| spellingShingle |
ACCOUNTING BENEFIT ANALYSIS CONSUMER SURPLUS CONSUMERS COST MINIMIZATION DEMAND ANALYSIS DEMAND FORECASTING DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE RATES EXPENDITURES EXPORTS EXTERNALITIES FIXED COSTS FORECASTING MODELS FORECASTING SERVICES FORECASTS INCOME INCOME EFFECT INCOME EFFECTS INCOME ELASTICITY INFLATION INSURANCE LARGE CITIES LOW TARIFFS M1 MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS MARGINAL COST MARKET POWER MERCHANDISE MICROECONOMICS MONOPOLIES NETWORK EXTERNALITIES OPERATING EXPENSES PENALTIES PERVERSE INCENTIVES PRICE CAPS PRICE DISCRIMINATION PRICING POLICIES PRICING STRATEGIES PRICING STRATEGY PRIVATIZATION PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PURE PROFIT REGULATORY REGIMES SUBSTITUTES TRANSPORT UNDERESTIMATES VALUATION VOTERS Trujillo, Lourdes Quinet, Emile Estache, Antonio Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport : What Economic Regulators Should Know, and Why |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2446 |
| description |
Forecasting has long been a challenge,
and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the
analytical instruments and data processing capabilities
available through the latest technology, and software,
should allow much better forecasting than transport
ministries, or regulatory agencies typically observe.
Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More
attention is paid to risk under privatization, than when
investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be
able to judge traffic studies done by operators, and to
learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many
governments, and regulators avoid good demand, modeling out
of lack of conviction that theory, and models can do better
than the "old hands" of the sector. This is
dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business.
For projects amounting to investments of $ 100-200 million,
a cost of $ 100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a
reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting
firms are willing to sell guarantees, or insurance with
their forecasts, to cover significant gaps between
forecasts, and reality. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Trujillo, Lourdes Quinet, Emile Estache, Antonio |
| author_facet |
Trujillo, Lourdes Quinet, Emile Estache, Antonio |
| author_sort |
Trujillo, Lourdes |
| title |
Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport : What Economic Regulators Should Know, and Why |
| title_short |
Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport : What Economic Regulators Should Know, and Why |
| title_full |
Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport : What Economic Regulators Should Know, and Why |
| title_fullStr |
Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport : What Economic Regulators Should Know, and Why |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport : What Economic Regulators Should Know, and Why |
| title_sort |
forecasting the demand for privatized transport : what economic regulators should know, and why |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/09/693062/forecasting-demand-privatized-transport-economic-regulators-know http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19786 |
| _version_ |
1764440719906308096 |