How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries
Quantitative studies of civil war have focused either on war's onset, or its termination, producing important insights into these end points of the process. The authors complement these studies by studying how much war we are likely to observe...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/01/1121148/much-war-see-estimating-incidence-civil-war-161-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19718 |
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okr-10986-197182021-04-23T14:03:44Z How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries Elbadawi, Ibrahim Sambanis, Nicholas ARMIES ARMY ASSET INEQUALITY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR DATA CIVIL WARS COLD WAR CONFLICT CONFLICTS COST OF REBELLION COSTS OF REBELLION CRIMINAL ACTIVITIES DEFENSE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC DEPENDENCE DURATION OF WAR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC GRIEVANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUPS ETHNIC HOMOGENEITY FRESH WARS GEOGRAPHIC CONCENTRATION GOVERNMENT ARMY HOMOGENEOUS SOCIETIES HOMOGENOUS SOCIETIES HUMAN RIGHTS INCOME INCOME PER CAPITA LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION LOOT-SEEKING REBELLION MILITARY OPPOSITION NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENTS OPPORTUNITY COST PEACE POLARIZATION POLITICAL LIBERALIZATION POLITICAL REPRESSION POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL VIOLENCE POST-CONFLICT POVERTY REDUCTION PROBABILITY OF WAR REBEL ARMY REBEL COHESION REBEL GROUP REBEL MOVEMENT REBEL MOVEMENTS REBEL VICTORY REBELLIONS RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RISK OF WAR SOCIAL DIVERSITY SOCIAL FRACTIONALIZATION SOVEREIGNTY UNEMPLOYMENT VIOLENCE VIOLENT CONFLICT WAR WAR DURATION Quantitative studies of civil war have focused either on war's onset, or its termination, producing important insights into these end points of the process. The authors complement these studies by studying how much war we are likely to observe in any given period. To answer this question, they combine recent advances in the theory of civil war initiation, and duration, and, develop the concept of war incidence, denoting th probability of observing an event of civil war in any given period. They test theories of war initiation, and duration against this new concept, using a five-year panel data set for 161 countries. Their analysis of the incidence of war corroborates most of the results of earlier studies, enriching those results by highlighting the significance of socio-ppolitical variables as determinants of the risk of civil war. Their findings: 1) Steps toward advancing political liberalization, or economic development reduce the risk of civil war, whatever the degree of ethno-linguistic fractionalization in a society. 2) This effect is amplified in polarized societies. The probability of civil war is lower in very homogeneous societies, and (less so) in more diverse societies. 3) In polarized societies, the risk of civil war can be reduced by political, rather than economic liberalization. At high levels of political freedom, ethnic diversity - even polarization - has a minimal impact on the risk of civil war. 4) Economic diversification that would reduce a country's reliance on primary exports would also reduce the risk of civil wars, especially in polarized societies. 5) In strategies for preventing civil war, political liberalization should be a higher priority than economic development, but the best possible results would combine political reform, economic diversification, and poverty reduction. 2014-08-26T20:14:29Z 2014-08-26T20:14:29Z 2001-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/01/1121148/much-war-see-estimating-incidence-civil-war-161-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19718 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2533 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ARMIES ARMY ASSET INEQUALITY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR DATA CIVIL WARS COLD WAR CONFLICT CONFLICTS COST OF REBELLION COSTS OF REBELLION CRIMINAL ACTIVITIES DEFENSE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC DEPENDENCE DURATION OF WAR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC GRIEVANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUPS ETHNIC HOMOGENEITY FRESH WARS GEOGRAPHIC CONCENTRATION GOVERNMENT ARMY HOMOGENEOUS SOCIETIES HOMOGENOUS SOCIETIES HUMAN RIGHTS INCOME INCOME PER CAPITA LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION LOOT-SEEKING REBELLION MILITARY OPPOSITION NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENTS OPPORTUNITY COST PEACE POLARIZATION POLITICAL LIBERALIZATION POLITICAL REPRESSION POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL VIOLENCE POST-CONFLICT POVERTY REDUCTION PROBABILITY OF WAR REBEL ARMY REBEL COHESION REBEL GROUP REBEL MOVEMENT REBEL MOVEMENTS REBEL VICTORY REBELLIONS RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RISK OF WAR SOCIAL DIVERSITY SOCIAL FRACTIONALIZATION SOVEREIGNTY UNEMPLOYMENT VIOLENCE VIOLENT CONFLICT WAR WAR DURATION |
| spellingShingle |
ARMIES ARMY ASSET INEQUALITY CIVIL WAR CIVIL WAR DATA CIVIL WARS COLD WAR CONFLICT CONFLICTS COST OF REBELLION COSTS OF REBELLION CRIMINAL ACTIVITIES DEFENSE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC DEPENDENCE DURATION OF WAR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC GRIEVANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH ETHNIC DIVERSITY ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION ETHNIC GROUPS ETHNIC HOMOGENEITY FRESH WARS GEOGRAPHIC CONCENTRATION GOVERNMENT ARMY HOMOGENEOUS SOCIETIES HOMOGENOUS SOCIETIES HUMAN RIGHTS INCOME INCOME PER CAPITA LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION LOOT-SEEKING REBELLION MILITARY OPPOSITION NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENTS OPPORTUNITY COST PEACE POLARIZATION POLITICAL LIBERALIZATION POLITICAL REPRESSION POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL VIOLENCE POST-CONFLICT POVERTY REDUCTION PROBABILITY OF WAR REBEL ARMY REBEL COHESION REBEL GROUP REBEL MOVEMENT REBEL MOVEMENTS REBEL VICTORY REBELLIONS RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION RISK OF WAR SOCIAL DIVERSITY SOCIAL FRACTIONALIZATION SOVEREIGNTY UNEMPLOYMENT VIOLENCE VIOLENT CONFLICT WAR WAR DURATION Elbadawi, Ibrahim Sambanis, Nicholas How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2533 |
| description |
Quantitative studies of civil war have
focused either on war's onset, or its termination,
producing important insights into these end points of the
process. The authors complement these studies by studying
how much war we are likely to observe in any given period.
To answer this question, they combine recent advances in the
theory of civil war initiation, and duration, and, develop
the concept of war incidence, denoting th probability of
observing an event of civil war in any given period. They
test theories of war initiation, and duration against this
new concept, using a five-year panel data set for 161
countries. Their analysis of the incidence of war
corroborates most of the results of earlier studies,
enriching those results by highlighting the significance of
socio-ppolitical variables as determinants of the risk of
civil war. Their findings: 1) Steps toward advancing
political liberalization, or economic development reduce the
risk of civil war, whatever the degree of ethno-linguistic
fractionalization in a society. 2) This effect is amplified
in polarized societies. The probability of civil war is
lower in very homogeneous societies, and (less so) in more
diverse societies. 3) In polarized societies, the risk of
civil war can be reduced by political, rather than economic
liberalization. At high levels of political freedom, ethnic
diversity - even polarization - has a minimal impact on the
risk of civil war. 4) Economic diversification that would
reduce a country's reliance on primary exports would
also reduce the risk of civil wars, especially in polarized
societies. 5) In strategies for preventing civil war,
political liberalization should be a higher priority than
economic development, but the best possible results would
combine political reform, economic diversification, and
poverty reduction. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Elbadawi, Ibrahim Sambanis, Nicholas |
| author_facet |
Elbadawi, Ibrahim Sambanis, Nicholas |
| author_sort |
Elbadawi, Ibrahim |
| title |
How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries |
| title_short |
How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries |
| title_full |
How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries |
| title_fullStr |
How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries |
| title_full_unstemmed |
How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries |
| title_sort |
how much war will we see? estimating the incidence of civil war in 161 countries |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/01/1121148/much-war-see-estimating-incidence-civil-war-161-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19718 |
| _version_ |
1764440438564978688 |