Changing Trade Patterns after Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasus
Since the breakup of the USSR, the South Caucasus region has experienced a range of political conflicts, resulting in a number of hot and cold wars and border closures. The author analyzes the probably short-term impacts of peace in the region as a...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/04/1121145/changing-trade-patterns-after-conflict-resolution-south-caucasus http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19673 |
| id |
okr-10986-19673 |
|---|---|
| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| spelling |
okr-10986-196732021-04-23T14:03:43Z Changing Trade Patterns after Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasus Polyakov, Evgeny AIR CARGO APPAREL AVERAGE TARIFF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT CHEMICAL INDUSTRY COMMODITIES COMMODITY CONSIGNMENT CONTAINERS COUNTRY OF ORIGIN CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS CLEARANCE EXCHANGE RATE EXCISE TAXES EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORT TAXES EXPORTS FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS FREIGHT FREIGHT COSTS GDP GRAVITY MODEL HANDLING IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT TARIFF IMPORT TARIFF STRUCTURE IMPORT TARIFFS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRIAL RESTRUCTURING INTERMEDIATE GOODS INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LIFTING MARKET SHARE METALS MUTUAL TRADE NATURAL RESOURCES NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OIL OIL EXPORTERS OIL SECTOR OPTIMIZATION PRICE LEVELS PRODUCTION GOODS PROFIT MARGINS PURCHASING POWER QUOTAS REGIONAL TRADE SAVINGS SHIPMENTS TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF LEVELS TARIFF REDUCTION TARIFF SCHEDULE TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE BALANCE TRADE BARRIERS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE DEFICITS TRADE FACILITATION TRADE FLOWS TRADE PATTERNS TRADE REGIME TRADE REGIMES TRADE REGULATIONS TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE ROUTES TRADE VOLUMES TRANSIT TRANSPORT COSTS VALUATION VALUE ADDED VALUE OF IMPORTS WHOLESALE PRICES WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO Since the breakup of the USSR, the South Caucasus region has experienced a range of political conflicts, resulting in a number of hot and cold wars and border closures. The author analyzes the probably short-term impacts of peace in the region as a result of a resolution of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorney Karabakh region and an end to the associated trade blockades, with an emphasis on Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The conflict has seriously distorted trade flows in the region, disrupted transport routes, and stifled export and import opportunities for Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia has enjoyed higher-than-normal transit through its territory. Trade has stopped in gas (from Azerbaijan to Armenia) and electricity (from Armenia to Turkey). Transport tariffs are unusually high, aggravated by government-imposed transit fees (taxes). Over time, trade restrictions have eased and trading partners have found ways to conduct trade despite closed borders and blockades--but at a cost. Applying a gravity model to regional trade, the author concludes that South Caucasus countries trade enough with the CIS countries and politically friendly neighbors, but too little with the European Union, the United States, and hostile neighbors. Lifting the blockades would alleviate trade distortions and bring about short-term improvements, including: 1) More rational trade flows; 2) A resumption of (or an increase in) regional trade in major commodities such as energy; and 3) Lower prices or higher profit margins (or both) on some important consumption and production goods. With peace, Armenia could more than double its exports if Azerbaijani and Turkish markets open, which could reduce Armenia's trade deficit by a third to a half and increase its GDP by 30 percent. Improving transport routes would produce immediate savings and relieve pressure on domestic prices, especially for energy. Azerbaijan could increase its exports by $100 million, or 11 percent of 1999 levels, reducing its trade deficit by a quarter and raising its GDP by 5 percent. Its exports and imports would benefit from transport savings. Transit through Georgia might decline, but probably not by more than a quarter of the freight service surplus. 2014-08-26T15:24:54Z 2014-08-26T15:24:54Z 2001-04 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/04/1121145/changing-trade-patterns-after-conflict-resolution-south-caucasus http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19673 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2593 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Europe and Central Asia Armenia Azerbaijan |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
AIR CARGO APPAREL AVERAGE TARIFF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT CHEMICAL INDUSTRY COMMODITIES COMMODITY CONSIGNMENT CONTAINERS COUNTRY OF ORIGIN CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS CLEARANCE EXCHANGE RATE EXCISE TAXES EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORT TAXES EXPORTS FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS FREIGHT FREIGHT COSTS GDP GRAVITY MODEL HANDLING IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT TARIFF IMPORT TARIFF STRUCTURE IMPORT TARIFFS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRIAL RESTRUCTURING INTERMEDIATE GOODS INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LIFTING MARKET SHARE METALS MUTUAL TRADE NATURAL RESOURCES NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OIL OIL EXPORTERS OIL SECTOR OPTIMIZATION PRICE LEVELS PRODUCTION GOODS PROFIT MARGINS PURCHASING POWER QUOTAS REGIONAL TRADE SAVINGS SHIPMENTS TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF LEVELS TARIFF REDUCTION TARIFF SCHEDULE TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE BALANCE TRADE BARRIERS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE DEFICITS TRADE FACILITATION TRADE FLOWS TRADE PATTERNS TRADE REGIME TRADE REGIMES TRADE REGULATIONS TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE ROUTES TRADE VOLUMES TRANSIT TRANSPORT COSTS VALUATION VALUE ADDED VALUE OF IMPORTS WHOLESALE PRICES WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO |
| spellingShingle |
AIR CARGO APPAREL AVERAGE TARIFF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT CHEMICAL INDUSTRY COMMODITIES COMMODITY CONSIGNMENT CONTAINERS COUNTRY OF ORIGIN CURRENCY CUSTOMS CUSTOMS CLEARANCE EXCHANGE RATE EXCISE TAXES EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORT TAXES EXPORTS FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS FREIGHT FREIGHT COSTS GDP GRAVITY MODEL HANDLING IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT TARIFF IMPORT TARIFF STRUCTURE IMPORT TARIFFS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRIAL RESTRUCTURING INTERMEDIATE GOODS INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LIFTING MARKET SHARE METALS MUTUAL TRADE NATURAL RESOURCES NON-TARIFF BARRIERS OIL OIL EXPORTERS OIL SECTOR OPTIMIZATION PRICE LEVELS PRODUCTION GOODS PROFIT MARGINS PURCHASING POWER QUOTAS REGIONAL TRADE SAVINGS SHIPMENTS TARIFF BARRIERS TARIFF LEVELS TARIFF REDUCTION TARIFF SCHEDULE TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE BALANCE TRADE BARRIERS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE DEFICITS TRADE FACILITATION TRADE FLOWS TRADE PATTERNS TRADE REGIME TRADE REGIMES TRADE REGULATIONS TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE ROUTES TRADE VOLUMES TRANSIT TRANSPORT COSTS VALUATION VALUE ADDED VALUE OF IMPORTS WHOLESALE PRICES WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO Polyakov, Evgeny Changing Trade Patterns after Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasus |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia Armenia Azerbaijan |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2593 |
| description |
Since the breakup of the USSR, the South
Caucasus region has experienced a range of political
conflicts, resulting in a number of hot and cold wars and
border closures. The author analyzes the probably short-term
impacts of peace in the region as a result of a resolution
of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the
Nagorney Karabakh region and an end to the associated trade
blockades, with an emphasis on Armenia, Azerbaijan, and
Georgia. The conflict has seriously distorted trade flows in
the region, disrupted transport routes, and stifled export
and import opportunities for Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia
has enjoyed higher-than-normal transit through its
territory. Trade has stopped in gas (from Azerbaijan to
Armenia) and electricity (from Armenia to Turkey). Transport
tariffs are unusually high, aggravated by government-imposed
transit fees (taxes). Over time, trade restrictions have
eased and trading partners have found ways to conduct trade
despite closed borders and blockades--but at a cost.
Applying a gravity model to regional trade, the author
concludes that South Caucasus countries trade enough with
the CIS countries and politically friendly neighbors, but
too little with the European Union, the United States, and
hostile neighbors. Lifting the blockades would alleviate
trade distortions and bring about short-term improvements,
including: 1) More rational trade flows; 2) A resumption of
(or an increase in) regional trade in major commodities such
as energy; and 3) Lower prices or higher profit margins (or
both) on some important consumption and production goods.
With peace, Armenia could more than double its exports if
Azerbaijani and Turkish markets open, which could reduce
Armenia's trade deficit by a third to a half and
increase its GDP by 30 percent. Improving transport routes
would produce immediate savings and relieve pressure on
domestic prices, especially for energy. Azerbaijan could
increase its exports by $100 million, or 11 percent of 1999
levels, reducing its trade deficit by a quarter and raising
its GDP by 5 percent. Its exports and imports would benefit
from transport savings. Transit through Georgia might
decline, but probably not by more than a quarter of the
freight service surplus. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Polyakov, Evgeny |
| author_facet |
Polyakov, Evgeny |
| author_sort |
Polyakov, Evgeny |
| title |
Changing Trade Patterns after Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasus |
| title_short |
Changing Trade Patterns after Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasus |
| title_full |
Changing Trade Patterns after Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasus |
| title_fullStr |
Changing Trade Patterns after Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasus |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Changing Trade Patterns after Conflict Resolution in the South Caucasus |
| title_sort |
changing trade patterns after conflict resolution in the south caucasus |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/04/1121145/changing-trade-patterns-after-conflict-resolution-south-caucasus http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19673 |
| _version_ |
1764440289283407872 |