On the Duration of Civil War
The authors model the duration of large-scale, violent civil conflicts, applying hazard functions to a comprehensive data set on such conflicts for the period 1960-99. They find that the duration of conflicts is determined by a substantially differ...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/09/1614731/duration-civil-war http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19534 |
| Summary: | The authors model the duration of
large-scale, violent civil conflicts, applying hazard
functions to a comprehensive data set on such conflicts for
the period 1960-99. They find that the duration of conflicts
is determined by a substantially different set of variables
than those that determine their initiation. The duration of
conflict increases substantially if the society is composed
of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest
cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of
these factors affects the initiation of conflict. The
authors also find that neither the duration nor the
initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or
political repression. This finding is consistent with the
hypothesis that rebellions are initiated where they are
viable during conflict, regardless of the prospects of
attaining post-conflict goals, and that they persist unless
circumstances change. |
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