Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030
As the world approaches the target year of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new, post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for a new international development goal of eradication of extreme poverty by 2030. How fe...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/08/20040315/eradicating-poverty-fragile-states-prospects-reaching-high-hanging-fruit-2030 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19392 |
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okr-10986-19392 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY AGRICULTURAL YIELDS AVERAGE GROWTH BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY CAPACITY-BUILDING CAPITAL INVESTMENT CASH TRANSFERS CHANGES IN POVERTY CHRONIC POVERTY CIVIL SOCIETY CLEAN WATER CLIMATE CHANGE CONFLICT CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA CORRUPTION COUNTRY INEQUALITY CURRENT POVERTY DEMOCRACY DENSITY FUNCTION DETERMINANTS OF POVERTY DEVELOPED WORLD DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPING WORLD DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT REPORT DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH DIRECT INVESTMENT DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMICS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY EXTREME POVERTY FINANCIAL FLOWS FOREIGN AID GINI COEFFICIENT GINI INDEX GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP GLOBAL POVERTY GOOD GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HEALTH CARE HEALTH OUTCOMES HIGH GROWTH HIGH INEQUALITY HIPC HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT HUMAN DEVELOPMENT HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT IMPROVING GROWTH INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS INCOME GENERATION INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVEL INCOME LEVELS INCREASING INEQUALITY INEQUALITY INEQUALITY CHANGES INEQUALITY CONSTANT INEQUALITY DATA INEQUALITY REDUCTION INEQUALITY WILL INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE INSTITUTIONAL REFORM INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTION LABOR MARKET LIFE EXPECTANCY LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MEAN VALUE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL RESOURCES POLICY CHANGES POLICY LEVEL POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL REFORMS POOR POOR COUNTRIES POOR HEALTH POOR INFRASTRUCTURE POOR LIVING POOR PEOPLE POOR POPULATION POOR POPULATIONS POPULOUS COUNTRIES POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES POVERTY ANALYSIS POVERTY ERADICATION POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY GOALS POVERTY LEVELS POVERTY LINE POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY REDUCTION POLICIES POVERTY TARGET PRIMARY SCHOOL PRODUCTION FUNCTION PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY QUALITY OF LIFE REDUCED INEQUALITY REDUCED POVERTY REDUCING INEQUALITY REDUCTION IN POVERTY REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS SANITATION SOCIAL CAPITAL SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT STANDARD DEVIATION STATE CAPACITY STRUCTURAL POLICIES SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TRADE OPENNESS TRANSPARENCY |
| spellingShingle |
ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY AGRICULTURAL YIELDS AVERAGE GROWTH BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY CAPACITY-BUILDING CAPITAL INVESTMENT CASH TRANSFERS CHANGES IN POVERTY CHRONIC POVERTY CIVIL SOCIETY CLEAN WATER CLIMATE CHANGE CONFLICT CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA CORRUPTION COUNTRY INEQUALITY CURRENT POVERTY DEMOCRACY DENSITY FUNCTION DETERMINANTS OF POVERTY DEVELOPED WORLD DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPING WORLD DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT REPORT DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH DIRECT INVESTMENT DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMICS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY EXTREME POVERTY FINANCIAL FLOWS FOREIGN AID GINI COEFFICIENT GINI INDEX GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP GLOBAL POVERTY GOOD GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HEALTH CARE HEALTH OUTCOMES HIGH GROWTH HIGH INEQUALITY HIPC HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT HUMAN DEVELOPMENT HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT IMPROVING GROWTH INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS INCOME GENERATION INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVEL INCOME LEVELS INCREASING INEQUALITY INEQUALITY INEQUALITY CHANGES INEQUALITY CONSTANT INEQUALITY DATA INEQUALITY REDUCTION INEQUALITY WILL INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE INSTITUTIONAL REFORM INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTION LABOR MARKET LIFE EXPECTANCY LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MEAN VALUE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL RESOURCES POLICY CHANGES POLICY LEVEL POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL REFORMS POOR POOR COUNTRIES POOR HEALTH POOR INFRASTRUCTURE POOR LIVING POOR PEOPLE POOR POPULATION POOR POPULATIONS POPULOUS COUNTRIES POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES POVERTY ANALYSIS POVERTY ERADICATION POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY GOALS POVERTY LEVELS POVERTY LINE POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY REDUCTION POLICIES POVERTY TARGET PRIMARY SCHOOL PRODUCTION FUNCTION PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY QUALITY OF LIFE REDUCED INEQUALITY REDUCED POVERTY REDUCING INEQUALITY REDUCTION IN POVERTY REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS SANITATION SOCIAL CAPITAL SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT STANDARD DEVIATION STATE CAPACITY STRUCTURAL POLICIES SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TRADE OPENNESS TRANSPARENCY Burt, Alison Hughes, Barry Milante, Gary Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030 |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7002 |
| description |
As the world approaches the target year
of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new,
post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for
a new international development goal of eradication of
extreme poverty by 2030. How feasible is that? For most of
the developing world, the goal seems ambitious, yet
achievable -- but what about the prospects for fragile
states in which an increasingly large share of the global
poor will live (estimated at nearly four in 10 by 2030)?
This paper presents a base case scenario with the
International Futures model that forecasts a 32 percent
poverty rate for fragile states by 2030 given current
conditions and trends. The paper considers alternative
scenarios to identify a range of possible outcomes. In the
most optimistic scenario, the paper steps beyond the search
for realistic policy levers and simply assumes exceptional
economic growth and decreased inequality for fragile states.
This extremely optimistic scenario produces a forecast of a
20 percent extreme poverty rate for this group of countries.
The paper then explores the effects of improved institutions
and improved security in fragile states and of a set of
poverty reduction policies that would be conditional on
security and good governance to be effective. The resulting
aggressive but reasonably attainable poverty rate in fragile
states is 24 percent in 2030. With newly revised Purchasing
Power Parity values (rebased to 2011 by the International
Comparison Project in May of 2014), the 2030 forecasts of
fragile state poverty rates are lower by 5 to 6 percent
across all scenarios, still leaving them significantly above
the 3 percent threshold for poverty eradication. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Burt, Alison Hughes, Barry Milante, Gary |
| author_facet |
Burt, Alison Hughes, Barry Milante, Gary |
| author_sort |
Burt, Alison |
| title |
Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030 |
| title_short |
Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030 |
| title_full |
Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030 |
| title_fullStr |
Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030 |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030 |
| title_sort |
eradicating poverty in fragile states: prospects of reaching the "high-hanging" fruit by 2030 |
| publisher |
World Bank Group, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/08/20040315/eradicating-poverty-fragile-states-prospects-reaching-high-hanging-fruit-2030 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19392 |
| _version_ |
1764443857117773824 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-193922021-04-23T14:03:52Z Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030 Burt, Alison Hughes, Barry Milante, Gary ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY AGRICULTURAL YIELDS AVERAGE GROWTH BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY CAPACITY-BUILDING CAPITAL INVESTMENT CASH TRANSFERS CHANGES IN POVERTY CHRONIC POVERTY CIVIL SOCIETY CLEAN WATER CLIMATE CHANGE CONFLICT CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA CORRUPTION COUNTRY INEQUALITY CURRENT POVERTY DEMOCRACY DENSITY FUNCTION DETERMINANTS OF POVERTY DEVELOPED WORLD DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPING WORLD DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT REPORT DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH DIRECT INVESTMENT DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMICS EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY EXTREME POVERTY FINANCIAL FLOWS FOREIGN AID GINI COEFFICIENT GINI INDEX GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP GLOBAL POVERTY GOOD GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE PERFORMANCE GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HEALTH CARE HEALTH OUTCOMES HIGH GROWTH HIGH INEQUALITY HIPC HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT HUMAN DEVELOPMENT HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT IMPROVING GROWTH INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS INCOME GENERATION INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVEL INCOME LEVELS INCREASING INEQUALITY INEQUALITY INEQUALITY CHANGES INEQUALITY CONSTANT INEQUALITY DATA INEQUALITY REDUCTION INEQUALITY WILL INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE INSTITUTIONAL REFORM INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTION LABOR MARKET LIFE EXPECTANCY LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MEAN VALUE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL INCOME NATURAL RESOURCES POLICY CHANGES POLICY LEVEL POLICY MAKERS POLICY RESEARCH POLITICAL REFORMS POOR POOR COUNTRIES POOR HEALTH POOR INFRASTRUCTURE POOR LIVING POOR PEOPLE POOR POPULATION POOR POPULATIONS POPULOUS COUNTRIES POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES POVERTY ANALYSIS POVERTY ERADICATION POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY GOALS POVERTY LEVELS POVERTY LINE POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY REDUCTION POLICIES POVERTY TARGET PRIMARY SCHOOL PRODUCTION FUNCTION PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY QUALITY OF LIFE REDUCED INEQUALITY REDUCED POVERTY REDUCING INEQUALITY REDUCTION IN POVERTY REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS SANITATION SOCIAL CAPITAL SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT STANDARD DEVIATION STATE CAPACITY STRUCTURAL POLICIES SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TRADE OPENNESS TRANSPARENCY As the world approaches the target year of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new, post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for a new international development goal of eradication of extreme poverty by 2030. How feasible is that? For most of the developing world, the goal seems ambitious, yet achievable -- but what about the prospects for fragile states in which an increasingly large share of the global poor will live (estimated at nearly four in 10 by 2030)? This paper presents a base case scenario with the International Futures model that forecasts a 32 percent poverty rate for fragile states by 2030 given current conditions and trends. The paper considers alternative scenarios to identify a range of possible outcomes. In the most optimistic scenario, the paper steps beyond the search for realistic policy levers and simply assumes exceptional economic growth and decreased inequality for fragile states. This extremely optimistic scenario produces a forecast of a 20 percent extreme poverty rate for this group of countries. The paper then explores the effects of improved institutions and improved security in fragile states and of a set of poverty reduction policies that would be conditional on security and good governance to be effective. The resulting aggressive but reasonably attainable poverty rate in fragile states is 24 percent in 2030. With newly revised Purchasing Power Parity values (rebased to 2011 by the International Comparison Project in May of 2014), the 2030 forecasts of fragile state poverty rates are lower by 5 to 6 percent across all scenarios, still leaving them significantly above the 3 percent threshold for poverty eradication. 2014-08-15T19:14:15Z 2014-08-15T19:14:15Z 2014-08 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/08/20040315/eradicating-poverty-fragile-states-prospects-reaching-high-hanging-fruit-2030 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19392 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7002 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research |