Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps"

This paper examines the possibility of environmental "development traps," or "brown poverty traps," caused by interactions between the impacts of climate change and increasing returns in the development of "clean-technology...

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Main Authors:	Golub, Alexander, Toman, Michael
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	ACCUMULATION OF CARBON ADVERSE IMPACTS APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY ATMOSPHERE CAPITA INCOME CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INPUT CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL STOCK CAPITAL STOCKS CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS CARBON INTENSITY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE DAMAGES CO CO2 CONSTANT RATE CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONSUMPTION INCREASES CONVERGENCE DAMAGES DEBT DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIMINISHING RETURNS DIMINISHING RETURNS TO SCALE DISCOUNT RATE DISCOUNT RATES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DYNAMICS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMIES OF SCALE ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMISSION EMISSION INTENSITY EMISSION PERMITS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS INTENSITY ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES ENVIRONMENTS EXOGENOUS PARAMETERS EXTERNALITY FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FINANCIAL SUPPORT FUTURE CONSUMPTION GHG GHGS GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GASES GROSS INVESTMENT GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH PATH GROWTH PROBLEM GROWTH THEORY HUMAN CAPITAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCOME LEVELS INCOME PER CAPITA INCREASING RETURNS INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE INDUSTRIALIZATION LABOR FORCE LOW-CARBON LOWER DISCOUNT RATE MARGINAL UTILITY NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS NATURAL RESOURCE SCARCITY NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET OUTPUT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OPPORTUNITY COST OPTIMIZATION PH POLITICAL ECONOMY POLLUTION POPULATION GROWTH PP PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY OF CAPITAL SCENARIOS SHADOW PRICE STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUBSTITUTION SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TECHNICAL CHANGE TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION TECHNOLOGY INCREASES TOTAL CONSUMPTION UNCERTAINTIES UNIT OF CAPITAL UTILITY FUNCTION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19736812/climate-change-industrial-transformation-development-traps http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19373

id	okr-10986-19373
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-193732021-04-23T14:03:51Z Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps" Golub, Alexander Toman, Michael ACCUMULATION OF CARBON ADVERSE IMPACTS APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY ATMOSPHERE CAPITA INCOME CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INPUT CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL STOCK CAPITAL STOCKS CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS CARBON INTENSITY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE DAMAGES CO CO2 CONSTANT RATE CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONSUMPTION INCREASES CONVERGENCE DAMAGES DEBT DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIMINISHING RETURNS DIMINISHING RETURNS TO SCALE DISCOUNT RATE DISCOUNT RATES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DYNAMICS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMIES OF SCALE ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMISSION EMISSION INTENSITY EMISSION PERMITS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS INTENSITY ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES ENVIRONMENTS EXOGENOUS PARAMETERS EXTERNALITY FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FINANCIAL SUPPORT FUTURE CONSUMPTION GHG GHGS GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GASES GROSS INVESTMENT GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH PATH GROWTH PROBLEM GROWTH THEORY HUMAN CAPITAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCOME LEVELS INCOME PER CAPITA INCREASING RETURNS INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE INDUSTRIALIZATION LABOR FORCE LOW-CARBON LOWER DISCOUNT RATE MARGINAL UTILITY NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS NATURAL RESOURCE SCARCITY NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET OUTPUT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OPPORTUNITY COST OPTIMIZATION PH POLITICAL ECONOMY POLLUTION POPULATION GROWTH PP PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY OF CAPITAL SCENARIOS SHADOW PRICE STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUBSTITUTION SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TECHNICAL CHANGE TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION TECHNOLOGY INCREASES TOTAL CONSUMPTION UNCERTAINTIES UNIT OF CAPITAL UTILITY FUNCTION This paper examines the possibility of environmental "development traps," or "brown poverty traps," caused by interactions between the impacts of climate change and increasing returns in the development of "clean-technology" sectors. A simple specification is used in which the economy can produce a single homogeneous consumption good with two different technologies. In the "old" sector, technology has global diminishing returns to scale and depends on the use of fossil energy that gives rise to long-lived, damaging climate change. In the "new" sector, the technology has convex-concave production and is not dependent on the polluting energy input. If the new sector does not grow fast enough to move through the phase of increasing returns, then the economy may linger at a low level of income indefinitely or it may achieve greater progress but then get driven back down to a lower level of income by environmental degradation. Stimulating growth in the new sector thus may be a key element for avoiding an environmental poverty trap and achieving higher, sustained income levels. 2014-08-15T17:20:29Z 2014-08-15T17:20:29Z 2014-06 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19736812/climate-change-industrial-transformation-development-traps http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19373 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6951 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	ACCUMULATION OF CARBON ADVERSE IMPACTS APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY ATMOSPHERE CAPITA INCOME CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INPUT CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL STOCK CAPITAL STOCKS CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS CARBON INTENSITY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE DAMAGES CO CO2 CONSTANT RATE CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONSUMPTION INCREASES CONVERGENCE DAMAGES DEBT DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIMINISHING RETURNS DIMINISHING RETURNS TO SCALE DISCOUNT RATE DISCOUNT RATES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DYNAMICS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMIES OF SCALE ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMISSION EMISSION INTENSITY EMISSION PERMITS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS INTENSITY ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES ENVIRONMENTS EXOGENOUS PARAMETERS EXTERNALITY FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FINANCIAL SUPPORT FUTURE CONSUMPTION GHG GHGS GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GASES GROSS INVESTMENT GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH PATH GROWTH PROBLEM GROWTH THEORY HUMAN CAPITAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCOME LEVELS INCOME PER CAPITA INCREASING RETURNS INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE INDUSTRIALIZATION LABOR FORCE LOW-CARBON LOWER DISCOUNT RATE MARGINAL UTILITY NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS NATURAL RESOURCE SCARCITY NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET OUTPUT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OPPORTUNITY COST OPTIMIZATION PH POLITICAL ECONOMY POLLUTION POPULATION GROWTH PP PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY OF CAPITAL SCENARIOS SHADOW PRICE STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUBSTITUTION SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TECHNICAL CHANGE TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION TECHNOLOGY INCREASES TOTAL CONSUMPTION UNCERTAINTIES UNIT OF CAPITAL UTILITY FUNCTION
spellingShingle	ACCUMULATION OF CARBON ADVERSE IMPACTS APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY ATMOSPHERE CAPITA INCOME CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL INPUT CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL STOCK CAPITAL STOCKS CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS CARBON INTENSITY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE DAMAGES CO CO2 CONSTANT RATE CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CONSUMPTION INCREASES CONVERGENCE DAMAGES DEBT DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIMINISHING RETURNS DIMINISHING RETURNS TO SCALE DISCOUNT RATE DISCOUNT RATES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DYNAMICS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMIES OF SCALE ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMISSION EMISSION INTENSITY EMISSION PERMITS EMISSIONS EMISSIONS INTENSITY ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES ENVIRONMENTS EXOGENOUS PARAMETERS EXTERNALITY FACTORS OF PRODUCTION FINANCIAL SUPPORT FUTURE CONSUMPTION GHG GHGS GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GASES GROSS INVESTMENT GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH PATH GROWTH PROBLEM GROWTH THEORY HUMAN CAPITAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCOME LEVELS INCOME PER CAPITA INCREASING RETURNS INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE INDUSTRIALIZATION LABOR FORCE LOW-CARBON LOWER DISCOUNT RATE MARGINAL UTILITY NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS NATURAL RESOURCE SCARCITY NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET OUTPUT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OPPORTUNITY COST OPTIMIZATION PH POLITICAL ECONOMY POLLUTION POPULATION GROWTH PP PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY OF CAPITAL SCENARIOS SHADOW PRICE STRUCTURAL CHANGE SUBSTITUTION SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TECHNICAL CHANGE TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION TECHNOLOGY INCREASES TOTAL CONSUMPTION UNCERTAINTIES UNIT OF CAPITAL UTILITY FUNCTION Golub, Alexander Toman, Michael Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps"
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6951
description	This paper examines the possibility of environmental "development traps," or "brown poverty traps," caused by interactions between the impacts of climate change and increasing returns in the development of "clean-technology" sectors. A simple specification is used in which the economy can produce a single homogeneous consumption good with two different technologies. In the "old" sector, technology has global diminishing returns to scale and depends on the use of fossil energy that gives rise to long-lived, damaging climate change. In the "new" sector, the technology has convex-concave production and is not dependent on the polluting energy input. If the new sector does not grow fast enough to move through the phase of increasing returns, then the economy may linger at a low level of income indefinitely or it may achieve greater progress but then get driven back down to a lower level of income by environmental degradation. Stimulating growth in the new sector thus may be a key element for avoiding an environmental poverty trap and achieving higher, sustained income levels.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Golub, Alexander Toman, Michael
author_facet	Golub, Alexander Toman, Michael
author_sort	Golub, Alexander
title	Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps"
title_short	Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps"
title_full	Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps"
title_fullStr	Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps"
title_full_unstemmed	Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps"
title_sort	climate change, industrial transformation, and "development traps"
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19736812/climate-change-industrial-transformation-development-traps http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19373
_version_	1764443748906827776

Climate Change, Industrial Transformation, and "Development Traps"

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