A Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) Linking Household Surveys with Macro-Models
The Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) is a model that links standard household surveys with macro frameworks. It allows users to assess the effect of macroeconomic policies-in particular, those associated with Poverty Reduction Strate...
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Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/09/2018945/poverty-analysis-macroeconomic-simulator-pams-linking-household-surveys-macro-models http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19273 |
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Digital Repository |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English en_US |
topic |
POVERTY ANALYSIS MACROECONOMIC MODELS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS MACROECONOMIC POLICY POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES EMPLOYMENT ECONOMETRIC MODELS INCOME ESTIMATES POVERTY INCIDENCE INCOME DISTRIBUTION AGGREGATE VARIABILITY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL BUDGETS PRICE STRUCTURES LABOR MARKET ECONOMETRIC MODELS LABOR DEMAND WAGE LEVELS ECONOMIC SECTORS INCOME TAX LAW & LEGISLATION FISCAL POLICY SECTORAL ADJUSTMENT TAXATION AGGREGATE LEVEL AGGREGATE OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE BASE YEAR BENCHMARKS BUDGET CONSTRAINTS BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT CAPITAL FLOWS CENTRAL PLANNING CONCESSIONAL LENDING COUNTRY CASE DEBT DEBT RELIEF DECENTRALIZATION DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT THEORY DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGE DOMESTIC SAVINGS ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC LITERATURE ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMICS ECONOMISTS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FUNCTIONAL FORM GDP GDP PER CAPITA GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GROWTH POLICIES GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPORTS INCOME INCOME COUNTRIES INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVELS INCOME MODULE INCOME POVERTY INFLATION INFORMAL SECTOR INFORMAL SECTORS INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES INVESTMENT CLIMATE JOB MARKET LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR SUPPLY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES MACROECONOMIC POLICY MEAN INCOME MEAN INCOME GROWTH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS OUTPUT GROWTH PARTICIPATORY POVERTY PARTICIPATORY POVERTY ASSESSMENTS POLICY CHANGE POLICY CHOICES POLICY ISSUES POLICY MEASURES POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR GROWTH STRATEGIES POOR PEOPLE POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY ANALYSIS POVERTY ASSESSMENT POVERTY ASSESSMENTS POVERTY HEADCOUNT POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY LEVELS POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MONITORING POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PRICE LEVELS PRIVATE SECTOR PRIVATE SECTORS PRO-POOR PRO-POOR GROWTH PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SERVICES QUANTITATIVE METHODS RAPID GROWTH REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL WAGE RATES REAL WAGES REFORM POLICIES RELATIVE INCOME RELATIVE INCOMES RESOURCE ALLOCATION RURAL AREAS RURAL ECONOMY SAVINGS SECTOR EMPLOYMENT SKILLED WORKERS SOCIAL EXPENDITURES SOCIAL INDICATORS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS STRUCTURAL POLICIES STRUCTURAL REFORM STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUBSTITUTION EFFECT TAX RATES TAXATION TAXES TIME SERIES TRADE POLICY TRADE SHOCKS TRADEOFFS UNEMPLOYMENT UNSKILLED LABOR URBAN AREAS VOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT WAGE INCOME WAGE LEVEL WAGE RATES |
spellingShingle |
POVERTY ANALYSIS MACROECONOMIC MODELS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS MACROECONOMIC POLICY POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES EMPLOYMENT ECONOMETRIC MODELS INCOME ESTIMATES POVERTY INCIDENCE INCOME DISTRIBUTION AGGREGATE VARIABILITY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL BUDGETS PRICE STRUCTURES LABOR MARKET ECONOMETRIC MODELS LABOR DEMAND WAGE LEVELS ECONOMIC SECTORS INCOME TAX LAW & LEGISLATION FISCAL POLICY SECTORAL ADJUSTMENT TAXATION AGGREGATE LEVEL AGGREGATE OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE BASE YEAR BENCHMARKS BUDGET CONSTRAINTS BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT CAPITAL FLOWS CENTRAL PLANNING CONCESSIONAL LENDING COUNTRY CASE DEBT DEBT RELIEF DECENTRALIZATION DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT THEORY DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGE DOMESTIC SAVINGS ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC LITERATURE ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMICS ECONOMISTS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FUNCTIONAL FORM GDP GDP PER CAPITA GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GROWTH POLICIES GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPORTS INCOME INCOME COUNTRIES INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVELS INCOME MODULE INCOME POVERTY INFLATION INFORMAL SECTOR INFORMAL SECTORS INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES INVESTMENT CLIMATE JOB MARKET LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR SUPPLY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES MACROECONOMIC POLICY MEAN INCOME MEAN INCOME GROWTH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS OUTPUT GROWTH PARTICIPATORY POVERTY PARTICIPATORY POVERTY ASSESSMENTS POLICY CHANGE POLICY CHOICES POLICY ISSUES POLICY MEASURES POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR GROWTH STRATEGIES POOR PEOPLE POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY ANALYSIS POVERTY ASSESSMENT POVERTY ASSESSMENTS POVERTY HEADCOUNT POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY LEVELS POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MONITORING POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PRICE LEVELS PRIVATE SECTOR PRIVATE SECTORS PRO-POOR PRO-POOR GROWTH PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SERVICES QUANTITATIVE METHODS RAPID GROWTH REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL WAGE RATES REAL WAGES REFORM POLICIES RELATIVE INCOME RELATIVE INCOMES RESOURCE ALLOCATION RURAL AREAS RURAL ECONOMY SAVINGS SECTOR EMPLOYMENT SKILLED WORKERS SOCIAL EXPENDITURES SOCIAL INDICATORS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS STRUCTURAL POLICIES STRUCTURAL REFORM STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUBSTITUTION EFFECT TAX RATES TAXATION TAXES TIME SERIES TRADE POLICY TRADE SHOCKS TRADEOFFS UNEMPLOYMENT UNSKILLED LABOR URBAN AREAS VOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT WAGE INCOME WAGE LEVEL WAGE RATES Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. Essama-Nssah, B. Samake, Issouf A Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) Linking Household Surveys with Macro-Models |
relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2888 |
description |
The Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic
Simulator (PAMS) is a model that links standard household
surveys with macro frameworks. It allows users to assess the
effect of macroeconomic policies-in particular, those
associated with Poverty Reduction Strategies papers-on
sectoral employment and income, the incidence of poverty,
and income distribution. PAMS (in Excel) has three
interconnected components: (1) A standard aggregate
macro-framework that can be taken from any macro-consistency
model (for example, RMSM-X, 123) to project GDP, national
accounts, the national budget, the BoP, price levels, and so
on, in aggregate consistent accounts. (2) A labor market model
breaking down labor categories by skill level and economic
sectors whose production total is consistent with that of
the macro framework. Individuals from the household surveys
are grouped in representative groups of households defined
by the labor category of the head of the household. For each
labor category, labor demand depends on sectoral output and
real wages. Wage income levels by economic sector and labor
category can thus be determined. In addition, different
income tax rates and different levels of budgetary transfers
across labor categories can be added to wage income. (3) A
model that uses the labor model results for each labor
category to simulate the income growth for each individual
inside its own group, assumed to be the average of its
group. After projecting individual incomes, PAMS
calculates the incidence of poverty and the inter-group
inequality. PAMS can produce historical or counterfactual
simulations of: + Alternative growth scenarios with
different assumptions for inflation, fiscal, and current
account balances. These simulations allow test tradeoffs
within a macro stabilization program. + Different
combinations of sectoral growth (agricultural or industrial,
tradable or non-tradable goods sectors), within a given
aggregate GDP growth rate. + Tax and budgetary transfer
policies. For example, PAMS will simulate a baseline
macro-scenario for Burkina Faso corresponding to an existing
IMF/World Bank-supported program and introduce changes in
tax, fiscal, and sectoral growth policies to reduce poverty
and inequality more effectively than the base scenario. So,
the authors argue that there are several possible
"equilibria" in terms of poverty and inequality
within the same macro framework. |
format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
author |
Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. Essama-Nssah, B. Samake, Issouf |
author_facet |
Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. Essama-Nssah, B. Samake, Issouf |
author_sort |
Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. |
title |
A Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) Linking Household Surveys with Macro-Models |
title_short |
A Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) Linking Household Surveys with Macro-Models |
title_full |
A Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) Linking Household Surveys with Macro-Models |
title_fullStr |
A Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) Linking Household Surveys with Macro-Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) Linking Household Surveys with Macro-Models |
title_sort |
poverty analysis macroeconomic simulator (pams) linking household surveys with macro-models |
publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/09/2018945/poverty-analysis-macroeconomic-simulator-pams-linking-household-surveys-macro-models http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19273 |
_version_ |
1764439651609739264 |
spelling |
okr-10986-192732021-04-23T14:03:42Z A Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) Linking Household Surveys with Macro-Models Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. Essama-Nssah, B. Samake, Issouf POVERTY ANALYSIS MACROECONOMIC MODELS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS MACROECONOMIC POLICY POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES EMPLOYMENT ECONOMETRIC MODELS INCOME ESTIMATES POVERTY INCIDENCE INCOME DISTRIBUTION AGGREGATE VARIABILITY NATIONAL ACCOUNTS NATIONAL BUDGETS PRICE STRUCTURES LABOR MARKET ECONOMETRIC MODELS LABOR DEMAND WAGE LEVELS ECONOMIC SECTORS INCOME TAX LAW & LEGISLATION FISCAL POLICY SECTORAL ADJUSTMENT TAXATION AGGREGATE LEVEL AGGREGATE OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH RATE BASE YEAR BENCHMARKS BUDGET CONSTRAINTS BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT CAPITAL FLOWS CENTRAL PLANNING CONCESSIONAL LENDING COUNTRY CASE DEBT DEBT RELIEF DECENTRALIZATION DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT THEORY DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGE DOMESTIC SAVINGS ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC LITERATURE ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMICS ECONOMISTS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FUNCTIONAL FORM GDP GDP PER CAPITA GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GROWTH POLICIES GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPORTS INCOME INCOME COUNTRIES INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVELS INCOME MODULE INCOME POVERTY INFLATION INFORMAL SECTOR INFORMAL SECTORS INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES INVESTMENT CLIMATE JOB MARKET LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR SUPPLY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES MACROECONOMIC POLICY MEAN INCOME MEAN INCOME GROWTH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS OUTPUT GROWTH PARTICIPATORY POVERTY PARTICIPATORY POVERTY ASSESSMENTS POLICY CHANGE POLICY CHOICES POLICY ISSUES POLICY MEASURES POLITICAL ECONOMY POOR GROWTH STRATEGIES POOR PEOPLE POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY ANALYSIS POVERTY ASSESSMENT POVERTY ASSESSMENTS POVERTY HEADCOUNT POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY LEVELS POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MONITORING POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY PRICE LEVELS PRIVATE SECTOR PRIVATE SECTORS PRO-POOR PRO-POOR GROWTH PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SERVICES QUANTITATIVE METHODS RAPID GROWTH REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL WAGE RATES REAL WAGES REFORM POLICIES RELATIVE INCOME RELATIVE INCOMES RESOURCE ALLOCATION RURAL AREAS RURAL ECONOMY SAVINGS SECTOR EMPLOYMENT SKILLED WORKERS SOCIAL EXPENDITURES SOCIAL INDICATORS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS STRUCTURAL POLICIES STRUCTURAL REFORM STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUBSTITUTION EFFECT TAX RATES TAXATION TAXES TIME SERIES TRADE POLICY TRADE SHOCKS TRADEOFFS UNEMPLOYMENT UNSKILLED LABOR URBAN AREAS VOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT WAGE INCOME WAGE LEVEL WAGE RATES The Poverty Analysis Macroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) is a model that links standard household surveys with macro frameworks. It allows users to assess the effect of macroeconomic policies-in particular, those associated with Poverty Reduction Strategies papers-on sectoral employment and income, the incidence of poverty, and income distribution. PAMS (in Excel) has three interconnected components: (1) A standard aggregate macro-framework that can be taken from any macro-consistency model (for example, RMSM-X, 123) to project GDP, national accounts, the national budget, the BoP, price levels, and so on, in aggregate consistent accounts. (2) A labor market model breaking down labor categories by skill level and economic sectors whose production total is consistent with that of the macro framework. Individuals from the household surveys are grouped in representative groups of households defined by the labor category of the head of the household. For each labor category, labor demand depends on sectoral output and real wages. Wage income levels by economic sector and labor category can thus be determined. In addition, different income tax rates and different levels of budgetary transfers across labor categories can be added to wage income. (3) A model that uses the labor model results for each labor category to simulate the income growth for each individual inside its own group, assumed to be the average of its group. After projecting individual incomes, PAMS calculates the incidence of poverty and the inter-group inequality. PAMS can produce historical or counterfactual simulations of: + Alternative growth scenarios with different assumptions for inflation, fiscal, and current account balances. These simulations allow test tradeoffs within a macro stabilization program. + Different combinations of sectoral growth (agricultural or industrial, tradable or non-tradable goods sectors), within a given aggregate GDP growth rate. + Tax and budgetary transfer policies. For example, PAMS will simulate a baseline macro-scenario for Burkina Faso corresponding to an existing IMF/World Bank-supported program and introduce changes in tax, fiscal, and sectoral growth policies to reduce poverty and inequality more effectively than the base scenario. So, the authors argue that there are several possible "equilibria" in terms of poverty and inequality within the same macro framework. 2014-08-08T21:27:29Z 2014-08-08T21:27:29Z 2002-09 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/09/2018945/poverty-analysis-macroeconomic-simulator-pams-linking-household-surveys-macro-models http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19273 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2888 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research |