The Risks and Macroeconomic Impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly
The authors develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region-Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisi...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/08/1976188/risks-macroeconomic-impacts-hivaids-middle-east-north-africa-waiting-intervene-can-costly http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19265 |
| id |
okr-10986-19265 |
|---|---|
| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| spelling |
okr-10986-192652021-04-23T14:03:42Z The Risks and Macroeconomic Impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly Robalino, David A. Jenkins, Carol El Maroufi, Karim ABSENTEEISM ACCESS TO CONDOMS AGED AVERAGE COSTS CONDOM USE CONDOMS DECISION MAKING DISCOUNT RATES DISTORTIONARY EFFECTS DISTRIBUTION OF CONDOMS DRUG USE DRUG USERS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMICS ECONOMICS LITERATURE ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EPIDEMICS EQUILIBRIUM EXPENDITURES FORECASTS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH RATE HARM REDUCTION HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS HEALTH SERVICES HIV HOSPITALS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME INFORMATION PROBLEMS INJECTING DRUG USERS INSURANCE INSURANCE MARKETS INTERVENTION INTRAVENOUS DRUG USERS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LABOR SUPPLY LOW PREVALENCE MARITAL SEX MIGRANTS MIGRATION MORBIDITY NEEDLE SHARING NEEDLES NEW INFECTIONS NUTRITIONAL STATUS OPTIMIZATION ORPHANS PANDEMIC PATIENTS POLICY RESEARCH PRESENT VALUE PREVENTIVE ACTIVITIES PREVENTIVE BEHAVIORS PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROSTITUTES REAL GDP REFUGEES RISK AVERSION RISK FACTORS RISK OF TRANSMISSION SAFE NEEDLES SAFETY SAVINGS SCHOOLS SCREENING SEX WITH MEN SEX WORKERS SEXUAL CONTACTS SEXUAL INTERCOURSE SEXUAL PARTNERS SEXUAL TRANSMISSION SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES SINGLE PARENTS SOCIAL CAPITAL SOCIAL COSTS SOCIAL WELFARE STDS TOTAL COSTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRANSMISSION TROUGH UNAIDS UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES UTILITY FUNCTION WELFARE GAINS WORKERS WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME HIV VIRUSES IMPACT ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT RISK ASSESSMENT ECONOMIC IMPACT DISEASE TRANSMISSION EPIDEMICS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT CONDOM PROMOTION DRUG UTILIZATION INSURANCE VALUES SOCIAL WELFARE The authors develop a model of optimal growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle East and North Africa region-Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two transmission factors-sexual intercourse and exchange of infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16 percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in 50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that these interventions act as an insurance policy that increases social welfare. They also show that delaying action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent of six percentage points of today's GDP. 2014-08-05T21:31:20Z 2014-08-05T21:31:20Z 2002-08 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/08/1976188/risks-macroeconomic-impacts-hivaids-middle-east-north-africa-waiting-intervene-can-costly http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19265 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2874 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Middle East and North Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ABSENTEEISM ACCESS TO CONDOMS AGED AVERAGE COSTS CONDOM USE CONDOMS DECISION MAKING DISCOUNT RATES DISTORTIONARY EFFECTS DISTRIBUTION OF CONDOMS DRUG USE DRUG USERS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMICS ECONOMICS LITERATURE ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EPIDEMICS EQUILIBRIUM EXPENDITURES FORECASTS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH RATE HARM REDUCTION HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS HEALTH SERVICES HIV HOSPITALS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME INFORMATION PROBLEMS INJECTING DRUG USERS INSURANCE INSURANCE MARKETS INTERVENTION INTRAVENOUS DRUG USERS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LABOR SUPPLY LOW PREVALENCE MARITAL SEX MIGRANTS MIGRATION MORBIDITY NEEDLE SHARING NEEDLES NEW INFECTIONS NUTRITIONAL STATUS OPTIMIZATION ORPHANS PANDEMIC PATIENTS POLICY RESEARCH PRESENT VALUE PREVENTIVE ACTIVITIES PREVENTIVE BEHAVIORS PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROSTITUTES REAL GDP REFUGEES RISK AVERSION RISK FACTORS RISK OF TRANSMISSION SAFE NEEDLES SAFETY SAVINGS SCHOOLS SCREENING SEX WITH MEN SEX WORKERS SEXUAL CONTACTS SEXUAL INTERCOURSE SEXUAL PARTNERS SEXUAL TRANSMISSION SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES SINGLE PARENTS SOCIAL CAPITAL SOCIAL COSTS SOCIAL WELFARE STDS TOTAL COSTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRANSMISSION TROUGH UNAIDS UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES UTILITY FUNCTION WELFARE GAINS WORKERS WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME HIV VIRUSES IMPACT ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT RISK ASSESSMENT ECONOMIC IMPACT DISEASE TRANSMISSION EPIDEMICS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT CONDOM PROMOTION DRUG UTILIZATION INSURANCE VALUES SOCIAL WELFARE |
| spellingShingle |
ABSENTEEISM ACCESS TO CONDOMS AGED AVERAGE COSTS CONDOM USE CONDOMS DECISION MAKING DISCOUNT RATES DISTORTIONARY EFFECTS DISTRIBUTION OF CONDOMS DRUG USE DRUG USERS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMICS ECONOMICS LITERATURE ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EPIDEMICS EQUILIBRIUM EXPENDITURES FORECASTS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH RATE HARM REDUCTION HEALTH CARE HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS HEALTH SERVICES HIV HOSPITALS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME INFORMATION PROBLEMS INJECTING DRUG USERS INSURANCE INSURANCE MARKETS INTERVENTION INTRAVENOUS DRUG USERS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LABOR SUPPLY LOW PREVALENCE MARITAL SEX MIGRANTS MIGRATION MORBIDITY NEEDLE SHARING NEEDLES NEW INFECTIONS NUTRITIONAL STATUS OPTIMIZATION ORPHANS PANDEMIC PATIENTS POLICY RESEARCH PRESENT VALUE PREVENTIVE ACTIVITIES PREVENTIVE BEHAVIORS PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROSTITUTES REAL GDP REFUGEES RISK AVERSION RISK FACTORS RISK OF TRANSMISSION SAFE NEEDLES SAFETY SAVINGS SCHOOLS SCREENING SEX WITH MEN SEX WORKERS SEXUAL CONTACTS SEXUAL INTERCOURSE SEXUAL PARTNERS SEXUAL TRANSMISSION SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES SINGLE PARENTS SOCIAL CAPITAL SOCIAL COSTS SOCIAL WELFARE STDS TOTAL COSTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRANSMISSION TROUGH UNAIDS UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES UTILITY FUNCTION WELFARE GAINS WORKERS WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME HIV VIRUSES IMPACT ASSESSMENT MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT RISK ASSESSMENT ECONOMIC IMPACT DISEASE TRANSMISSION EPIDEMICS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT CONDOM PROMOTION DRUG UTILIZATION INSURANCE VALUES SOCIAL WELFARE Robalino, David A. Jenkins, Carol El Maroufi, Karim The Risks and Macroeconomic Impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly |
| geographic_facet |
Middle East and North Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2874 |
| description |
The authors develop a model of optimal
growth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and the
expected economic impact in nine countries in the Middle
East and North Africa region-Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran,
Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The model
incorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on two
transmission factors-sexual intercourse and exchange of
infected needles among intravenous drug users. Given high
levels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determine
the dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, the
authors explore large regions of the parameter space. The
prevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16
percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in
50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses across
countries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent of
today's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observe
scenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authors
quantify the impact of expanding condom use and access to
clean needles for intravenous drug users. They show that
these interventions act as an insurance policy that
increases social welfare. They also show that delaying
action for five years can cost, on average, the equivalent
of six percentage points of today's GDP. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Robalino, David A. Jenkins, Carol El Maroufi, Karim |
| author_facet |
Robalino, David A. Jenkins, Carol El Maroufi, Karim |
| author_sort |
Robalino, David A. |
| title |
The Risks and Macroeconomic Impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly |
| title_short |
The Risks and Macroeconomic Impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly |
| title_full |
The Risks and Macroeconomic Impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly |
| title_fullStr |
The Risks and Macroeconomic Impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The Risks and Macroeconomic Impacts of HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : Why Waiting to Intervene Can Be Costly |
| title_sort |
risks and macroeconomic impacts of hiv/aids in the middle east and north africa : why waiting to intervene can be costly |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/08/1976188/risks-macroeconomic-impacts-hivaids-middle-east-north-africa-waiting-intervene-can-costly http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19265 |
| _version_ |
1764439626326474752 |