Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown?
The authors explain Latin America's growth slowdown in 1998-1999. To do so, they use two complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific external factors: the terms of trade, int...
Main Authors: | , , |
---|---|
Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
Language: | English en_US |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/05/437692/output-fluctuations-latin-america-explains-recent-slowdown http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18841 |
id |
okr-10986-18841 |
---|---|
recordtype |
oai_dc |
spelling |
okr-10986-188412021-04-23T14:03:46Z Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown? Herrera, Santiago Perry, Guillermo Quintero, Neile ANNUAL GROWTH AUTOREGRESSION AVERAGE LEVEL BENCHMARK BONDS BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL MARKETS CD CONTEMPORANEOUS CORRELATION CONVERTIBILITY COVARIANCE MATRIX CURRENCY CURRENCY CRISES CURRENCY DEPRECIATION CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DATA AVAILABILITY DATA SETS DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES DOMESTIC REAL INTEREST RATE DOMESTIC REAL INTEREST RATES DYNAMIC PANEL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POLICY EMERGING MARKETS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATION RESULTS EXCHANGE RATE VARIABILITY EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXTERNAL % SHOCKS EXTERNAL CONDITIONS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT EXTERNAL FACTORS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FISCAL POLICY GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCREASE GROWTH INCREASES GROWTH INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES INTEREST RATE SHOCKS INTERNAL FACTORS INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES LAGGED DEPENDENT LAGGED VALUE MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES MULTIPLIERS NEGATIVE EFFECT OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS OUTPUT GROWTH OUTPUT VARIABILITY OUTPUT VOLATILITY PANEL REGRESSIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY VARIABLES POOLING POVERTY REDUCTION REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE REAL INTEREST RATES REAL OUTPUT RELATIVE IMPORTANCE SCENARIOS STANDARD DEVIATION TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS The authors explain Latin America's growth slowdown in 1998-1999. To do so, they use two complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific external factors: the terms of trade, international interest rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and climatological factors (El Nino). Using quarterly GDP data for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50-60 percent of the slowdown was due to these external factors. The second approach allows for effects on output by some endogeneous variables, such as domestic real interest rates, and real exchange rates. Using monthly industrial performance data, the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector auto-regressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the slowdown in the sub-period 1998-99 is explained more than 60 percent by shocks to the external factors. 2014-06-30T18:43:24Z 2014-06-30T18:43:24Z 2000-05 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/05/437692/output-fluctuations-latin-america-explains-recent-slowdown http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18841 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2333 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Latin America & Caribbean Latin America |
repository_type |
Digital Repository |
institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
institution |
Digital Repositories |
building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
collection |
World Bank |
language |
English en_US |
topic |
ANNUAL GROWTH AUTOREGRESSION AVERAGE LEVEL BENCHMARK BONDS BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL MARKETS CD CONTEMPORANEOUS CORRELATION CONVERTIBILITY COVARIANCE MATRIX CURRENCY CURRENCY CRISES CURRENCY DEPRECIATION CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DATA AVAILABILITY DATA SETS DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES DOMESTIC REAL INTEREST RATE DOMESTIC REAL INTEREST RATES DYNAMIC PANEL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POLICY EMERGING MARKETS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATION RESULTS EXCHANGE RATE VARIABILITY EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXTERNAL % SHOCKS EXTERNAL CONDITIONS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT EXTERNAL FACTORS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FISCAL POLICY GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCREASE GROWTH INCREASES GROWTH INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES INTEREST RATE SHOCKS INTERNAL FACTORS INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES LAGGED DEPENDENT LAGGED VALUE MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES MULTIPLIERS NEGATIVE EFFECT OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS OUTPUT GROWTH OUTPUT VARIABILITY OUTPUT VOLATILITY PANEL REGRESSIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY VARIABLES POOLING POVERTY REDUCTION REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE REAL INTEREST RATES REAL OUTPUT RELATIVE IMPORTANCE SCENARIOS STANDARD DEVIATION TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS |
spellingShingle |
ANNUAL GROWTH AUTOREGRESSION AVERAGE LEVEL BENCHMARK BONDS BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL MARKETS CD CONTEMPORANEOUS CORRELATION CONVERTIBILITY COVARIANCE MATRIX CURRENCY CURRENCY CRISES CURRENCY DEPRECIATION CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DATA AVAILABILITY DATA SETS DEPENDENT VARIABLE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES DOMESTIC REAL INTEREST RATE DOMESTIC REAL INTEREST RATES DYNAMIC PANEL ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POLICY EMERGING MARKETS EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS ESTIMATION RESULTS EXCHANGE RATE VARIABILITY EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXTERNAL % SHOCKS EXTERNAL CONDITIONS EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT EXTERNAL FACTORS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FISCAL POLICY GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCREASE GROWTH INCREASES GROWTH INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES INTEREST RATE SHOCKS INTERNAL FACTORS INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES LAGGED DEPENDENT LAGGED VALUE MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES MULTIPLIERS NEGATIVE EFFECT OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS OUTPUT GROWTH OUTPUT VARIABILITY OUTPUT VOLATILITY PANEL REGRESSIONS POLICY RESEARCH POLICY VARIABLES POOLING POVERTY REDUCTION REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATE REAL INTEREST RATES REAL OUTPUT RELATIVE IMPORTANCE SCENARIOS STANDARD DEVIATION TERMS OF TRADE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS Herrera, Santiago Perry, Guillermo Quintero, Neile Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
geographic_facet |
Latin America & Caribbean Latin America |
relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2333 |
description |
The authors explain Latin America's
growth slowdown in 1998-1999. To do so, they use two
complementary methodologies. The first aims at determining
how much of the slowdown can be explained by specific
external factors: the terms of trade, international interest
rates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, and
climatological factors (El Nino). Using quarterly GDP data
for the eight largest countries in the region, the authors
estimate a dynamic panel showing that 50-60 percent of the
slowdown was due to these external factors. The second
approach allows for effects on output by some endogeneous
variables, such as domestic real interest rates, and real
exchange rates. Using monthly industrial performance data,
the authors estimate country-specific generalized vector
auto-regressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They find
that during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility is
mostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but the
slowdown in the sub-period 1998-99 is explained more than 60
percent by shocks to the external factors. |
format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
author |
Herrera, Santiago Perry, Guillermo Quintero, Neile |
author_facet |
Herrera, Santiago Perry, Guillermo Quintero, Neile |
author_sort |
Herrera, Santiago |
title |
Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
title_short |
Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
title_full |
Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
title_fullStr |
Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown? |
title_sort |
output fluctuations in latin america : what explains the recent slowdown? |
publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/05/437692/output-fluctuations-latin-america-explains-recent-slowdown http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18841 |
_version_ |
1764441598237605888 |