Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run

Economic, agronomic, and biophysical drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need to be considered in evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework...

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Main Authors:	Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, Hertel, Thomas W.
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	AEROSOLS AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS ALLOCATION ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNUAL NET FLUX OF CARBON ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON EMISSIONS ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON BASELINE LEVELS BEQUEST VALUE BIO-ENERGY BIOMASS BIOMASS BURNING CALCULATION CAPITAL ADJUSTMENT CAPS CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON LEAKAGE CARBON PRICES CARBON SEQUESTRATION CARBON STOCK CARBON STOCKS CARBON TAXES CHANGES IN LAND USE CL CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE POLICY CO2 COMBUSTION CONSUMER DEMAND COST OF PRODUCTION DEBT DECISION MAKING DEFORESTATION DEFORESTATION RATE DEFORESTATION RATES DEGRADED LANDS DEGREE DAYS DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES DIESEL DISCOUNT RATE DYNAMIC MODEL ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC DYNAMICS ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMICS ECOSYSTEM ECOSYSTEMS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR EMISSION EMISSIONS ABATEMENT EMISSIONS CONTROL EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCK EMISSIONS FROM PETROLEUM EMISSIONS INTENSITY ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY COSTS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY ECONOMICS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICE ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ENERGY USE ENTERIC FERMENTATION ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION EQUILIBRIUM ETHANOL EXPENDITURES FEEDSTOCKS FERTILIZATION FERTILIZERS FOOD PRODUCTION FOREST FOREST AREA FOREST AREAS FOREST CARBON FOREST CONSERVATION FOREST CONVERSION FOREST COVER FOREST LAND FOREST LANDS FOREST MANAGEMENT FOREST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOREST PRODUCTION FOREST PRODUCTS FOREST SINKS FOREST STRUCTURE FORESTRY FORESTRY SECTOR FORESTS FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS FOSSIL FUELS FUEL CONSUMPTION FUEL PRICES FUEL SUPPLY FUELS GHG GHGS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL ENERGY USE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION GREENHOUSE GASES IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION INPUT PRICES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK IPCC IRREVERSIBILITY LAND ALLOCATION DECISIONS LAND MANAGEMENT LAND RESOURCES LAND USE LAND USE CHANGE LAND USE COMPETITION LAND USE DECISIONS LAND-USE CHANGE LAND-USE EMISSIONS LIQUID FUELS LIVESTOCK EMISSIONS LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY MANURE MARGINAL COST MARKET FAILURES MARKET PRICES NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS NATURAL FORESTS NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS PRICES NATURAL RESOURCES NITROGEN NITROGEN FERTILIZERS OIL OIL EQUIVALENT OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPTION VALUE PASTURE LAND PASTURES PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOMES PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION PETROLEUM PRODUCTS POLICY ANALYSIS POPULATION GROWTH POWER GENERATION PP PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION PROCESSES PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROPERTY RIGHTS PUBLIC GOOD RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCE USE RISING COST SCENARIOS SENSITIVITY ANALYSES SUBSTITUTION SUM OF EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TEMPERATURE TERRESTRIAL CARBON TIMBER TOTAL CONSUMPTION TOTAL DEMAND UTILITY FUNCTION WAGES WELFARE FUNCTION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19696268/confronting-food-energy-environment-trilemma-global-land-use-long-run http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18810

id	okr-10986-18810
recordtype	oai_dc
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	AEROSOLS AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS ALLOCATION ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNUAL NET FLUX OF CARBON ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON EMISSIONS ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON BASELINE LEVELS BEQUEST VALUE BIO-ENERGY BIOMASS BIOMASS BURNING CALCULATION CAPITAL ADJUSTMENT CAPS CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON LEAKAGE CARBON PRICES CARBON SEQUESTRATION CARBON STOCK CARBON STOCKS CARBON TAXES CHANGES IN LAND USE CL CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE POLICY CO2 COMBUSTION CONSUMER DEMAND COST OF PRODUCTION DEBT DECISION MAKING DEFORESTATION DEFORESTATION RATE DEFORESTATION RATES DEGRADED LANDS DEGREE DAYS DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES DIESEL DISCOUNT RATE DYNAMIC MODEL ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC DYNAMICS ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMICS ECOSYSTEM ECOSYSTEMS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR EMISSION EMISSIONS ABATEMENT EMISSIONS CONTROL EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCK EMISSIONS FROM PETROLEUM EMISSIONS INTENSITY ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY COSTS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY ECONOMICS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICE ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ENERGY USE ENTERIC FERMENTATION ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION EQUILIBRIUM ETHANOL EXPENDITURES FEEDSTOCKS FERTILIZATION FERTILIZERS FOOD PRODUCTION FOREST FOREST AREA FOREST AREAS FOREST CARBON FOREST CONSERVATION FOREST CONVERSION FOREST COVER FOREST LAND FOREST LANDS FOREST MANAGEMENT FOREST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOREST PRODUCTION FOREST PRODUCTS FOREST SINKS FOREST STRUCTURE FORESTRY FORESTRY SECTOR FORESTS FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS FOSSIL FUELS FUEL CONSUMPTION FUEL PRICES FUEL SUPPLY FUELS GHG GHGS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL ENERGY USE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION GREENHOUSE GASES IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION INPUT PRICES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK IPCC IRREVERSIBILITY LAND ALLOCATION DECISIONS LAND MANAGEMENT LAND RESOURCES LAND USE LAND USE CHANGE LAND USE COMPETITION LAND USE DECISIONS LAND-USE CHANGE LAND-USE EMISSIONS LIQUID FUELS LIVESTOCK EMISSIONS LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY MANURE MARGINAL COST MARKET FAILURES MARKET PRICES NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS NATURAL FORESTS NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS PRICES NATURAL RESOURCES NITROGEN NITROGEN FERTILIZERS OIL OIL EQUIVALENT OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPTION VALUE PASTURE LAND PASTURES PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOMES PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION PETROLEUM PRODUCTS POLICY ANALYSIS POPULATION GROWTH POWER GENERATION PP PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION PROCESSES PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROPERTY RIGHTS PUBLIC GOOD RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCE USE RISING COST SCENARIOS SENSITIVITY ANALYSES SUBSTITUTION SUM OF EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TEMPERATURE TERRESTRIAL CARBON TIMBER TOTAL CONSUMPTION TOTAL DEMAND UTILITY FUNCTION WAGES WELFARE FUNCTION
spellingShingle	AEROSOLS AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS ALLOCATION ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNUAL NET FLUX OF CARBON ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON EMISSIONS ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON BASELINE LEVELS BEQUEST VALUE BIO-ENERGY BIOMASS BIOMASS BURNING CALCULATION CAPITAL ADJUSTMENT CAPS CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON LEAKAGE CARBON PRICES CARBON SEQUESTRATION CARBON STOCK CARBON STOCKS CARBON TAXES CHANGES IN LAND USE CL CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE POLICY CO2 COMBUSTION CONSUMER DEMAND COST OF PRODUCTION DEBT DECISION MAKING DEFORESTATION DEFORESTATION RATE DEFORESTATION RATES DEGRADED LANDS DEGREE DAYS DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES DIESEL DISCOUNT RATE DYNAMIC MODEL ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC DYNAMICS ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMICS ECOSYSTEM ECOSYSTEMS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR EMISSION EMISSIONS ABATEMENT EMISSIONS CONTROL EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCK EMISSIONS FROM PETROLEUM EMISSIONS INTENSITY ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY COSTS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY ECONOMICS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICE ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ENERGY USE ENTERIC FERMENTATION ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION EQUILIBRIUM ETHANOL EXPENDITURES FEEDSTOCKS FERTILIZATION FERTILIZERS FOOD PRODUCTION FOREST FOREST AREA FOREST AREAS FOREST CARBON FOREST CONSERVATION FOREST CONVERSION FOREST COVER FOREST LAND FOREST LANDS FOREST MANAGEMENT FOREST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOREST PRODUCTION FOREST PRODUCTS FOREST SINKS FOREST STRUCTURE FORESTRY FORESTRY SECTOR FORESTS FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS FOSSIL FUELS FUEL CONSUMPTION FUEL PRICES FUEL SUPPLY FUELS GHG GHGS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL ENERGY USE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION GREENHOUSE GASES IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION INPUT PRICES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK IPCC IRREVERSIBILITY LAND ALLOCATION DECISIONS LAND MANAGEMENT LAND RESOURCES LAND USE LAND USE CHANGE LAND USE COMPETITION LAND USE DECISIONS LAND-USE CHANGE LAND-USE EMISSIONS LIQUID FUELS LIVESTOCK EMISSIONS LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY MANURE MARGINAL COST MARKET FAILURES MARKET PRICES NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS NATURAL FORESTS NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS PRICES NATURAL RESOURCES NITROGEN NITROGEN FERTILIZERS OIL OIL EQUIVALENT OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPTION VALUE PASTURE LAND PASTURES PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOMES PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION PETROLEUM PRODUCTS POLICY ANALYSIS POPULATION GROWTH POWER GENERATION PP PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION PROCESSES PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROPERTY RIGHTS PUBLIC GOOD RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCE USE RISING COST SCENARIOS SENSITIVITY ANALYSES SUBSTITUTION SUM OF EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TEMPERATURE TERRESTRIAL CARBON TIMBER TOTAL CONSUMPTION TOTAL DEMAND UTILITY FUNCTION WAGES WELFARE FUNCTION Steinbuks, Jevgenijs Hertel, Thomas W. Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6928
description	Economic, agronomic, and biophysical drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need to be considered in evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework applied over the course of the coming century shows that although some deforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence of climate change regulation, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growth in energy prices lead to significant deforestation and higher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes its environmental effectiveness, as deforestation accelerates prior to imposition of the target.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Steinbuks, Jevgenijs Hertel, Thomas W.
author_facet	Steinbuks, Jevgenijs Hertel, Thomas W.
author_sort	Steinbuks, Jevgenijs
title	Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run
title_short	Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run
title_full	Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run
title_fullStr	Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run
title_full_unstemmed	Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run
title_sort	confronting the food-energy-environment trilemma : global land use in the long run
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19696268/confronting-food-energy-environment-trilemma-global-land-use-long-run http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18810
_version_	1764442767773138944
spelling	okr-10986-188102021-04-23T14:03:49Z Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run Steinbuks, Jevgenijs Hertel, Thomas W. AEROSOLS AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS ALLOCATION ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK ANNUAL NET FLUX OF CARBON ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON EMISSIONS ATMOSPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON BASELINE LEVELS BEQUEST VALUE BIO-ENERGY BIOMASS BIOMASS BURNING CALCULATION CAPITAL ADJUSTMENT CAPS CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CARBON LEAKAGE CARBON PRICES CARBON SEQUESTRATION CARBON STOCK CARBON STOCKS CARBON TAXES CHANGES IN LAND USE CL CLEAN ENERGY CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE POLICY CO2 COMBUSTION CONSUMER DEMAND COST OF PRODUCTION DEBT DECISION MAKING DEFORESTATION DEFORESTATION RATE DEFORESTATION RATES DEGRADED LANDS DEGREE DAYS DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICES DIESEL DISCOUNT RATE DYNAMIC MODEL ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC DYNAMICS ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMICS ECOSYSTEM ECOSYSTEMS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR EMISSION EMISSIONS ABATEMENT EMISSIONS CONTROL EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS FROM LIVESTOCK EMISSIONS FROM PETROLEUM EMISSIONS INTENSITY ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY COSTS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY ECONOMICS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICE ENERGY PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ENERGY USE ENTERIC FERMENTATION ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION EQUILIBRIUM ETHANOL EXPENDITURES FEEDSTOCKS FERTILIZATION FERTILIZERS FOOD PRODUCTION FOREST FOREST AREA FOREST AREAS FOREST CARBON FOREST CONSERVATION FOREST CONVERSION FOREST COVER FOREST LAND FOREST LANDS FOREST MANAGEMENT FOREST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOREST PRODUCTION FOREST PRODUCTS FOREST SINKS FOREST STRUCTURE FORESTRY FORESTRY SECTOR FORESTS FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS FOSSIL FUELS FUEL CONSUMPTION FUEL PRICES FUEL SUPPLY FUELS GHG GHGS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL ENERGY USE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION GREENHOUSE GASES IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION INPUT PRICES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK IPCC IRREVERSIBILITY LAND ALLOCATION DECISIONS LAND MANAGEMENT LAND RESOURCES LAND USE LAND USE CHANGE LAND USE COMPETITION LAND USE DECISIONS LAND-USE CHANGE LAND-USE EMISSIONS LIQUID FUELS LIVESTOCK EMISSIONS LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY MANURE MARGINAL COST MARKET FAILURES MARKET PRICES NATURAL CAPITAL NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS NATURAL FORESTS NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS PRICES NATURAL RESOURCES NITROGEN NITROGEN FERTILIZERS OIL OIL EQUIVALENT OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPTION VALUE PASTURE LAND PASTURES PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOMES PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION PETROLEUM PRODUCTS POLICY ANALYSIS POPULATION GROWTH POWER GENERATION PP PRESENT VALUE PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION PROCESSES PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROPERTY RIGHTS PUBLIC GOOD RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCE USE RISING COST SCENARIOS SENSITIVITY ANALYSES SUBSTITUTION SUM OF EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TEMPERATURE TERRESTRIAL CARBON TIMBER TOTAL CONSUMPTION TOTAL DEMAND UTILITY FUNCTION WAGES WELFARE FUNCTION Economic, agronomic, and biophysical drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need to be considered in evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework applied over the course of the coming century shows that although some deforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence of climate change regulation, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growth in energy prices lead to significant deforestation and higher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes its environmental effectiveness, as deforestation accelerates prior to imposition of the target. 2014-06-26T22:29:52Z 2014-06-26T22:29:52Z 2014-06 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19696268/confronting-food-energy-environment-trilemma-global-land-use-long-run http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18810 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6928 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research

Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run

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