The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared from Africa's development debate. Through econometric analysis of monthly food price series across 100 locations in three countries during 2000-12, it...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19616385/end-seasonality-new-insights-sub-saharan-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18771 |
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okr-10986-187712021-04-23T14:03:49Z The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa Kaminski, Jonathan Christiaensen, Luc Gilbert, Christopher L. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE ARBITRAGE ARIMA AVERAGE PRICE BANANAS BARS BENCHMARK CAPITAL MARKETS CARROTS CASSAVA CEREALS COMMERCE COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICE CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION LEVELS COOKING COST OF CAPITAL CREDIT CONSTRAINTS DEBTS DEFLATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICE DURABLE GOODS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LITERATURE ENTRY POINTS EXCHANGE RATES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT MARKET FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS FLOUR FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD CROPS FOOD INTAKE FOOD MARKETS FOOD POLICY FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PRODUCTS FOOD SECURITY FOOD SHORTAGES FOOD STAPLES FOOD STORAGE FOOD TRANSFERS FOODS FRUITS FUTURES GAUGE GINI COEFFICIENT GRAINS GROUNDNUTS IMPERFECT COMPETITION INCOME INEQUALITY MEASURES INFLATION INTERNATIONAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION LIQUIDITY LOCAL CURRENCIES LOCAL CURRENCY MAIZE MARKET INTEGRATION MARKET POWER MARKET PRICE MARKET PRICES MARKET STRUCTURE MARKETING MARKETPLACE MARKETPLACES MOBILE PHONE MOBILE PHONES MONOPOLIES MORTGAGES OPPORTUNITY COST ORANGES PERISHABILITY PORK POTATOES PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND PRICE INDEX PRICE MOVEMENT PRICE MOVEMENTS PRICE RISK PRICE SERIES PRICE THEORY PRICE TRENDS PRICE VOLATILITY PRODUCT MARKET PRODUCTIVE ASSETS PULSES PURCHASING PURCHASING POWER RANDOM WALK RATE OF RETURN REGIONAL TRADE RETAIL RETAIL MARKETS RETAIL PRICES RICE SEASONAL FACTOR SEASONAL FACTORS SPREAD STAPLE FOODS STOCK EXCHANGE SUBSTITUTE SUBSTITUTION SUGAR SUPPLY INCREASES SWEET POTATOES THIRD WORLD TOMATOES TRANSACTION COSTS TROUGH TUBERS UNDUE INFLUENCE VEGETABLES VOLATILITY WHEAT WHEAT FLOUR WHOLESALE MARKETS WHOLESALE PRICE WHOLESALE PRICES WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS YAMS This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared from Africa's development debate. Through econometric analysis of monthly food price series across 100 locations in three countries during 2000-12, it is shown that seasonal movements in maize wholesale prices explain 20 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 40 (Malawi) percent of their monthly volatility. Monthly maize peak prices are on average 30 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 50 (Malawi) percent higher than their monthly troughs and two to three times higher than the seasonal gaps observed for white maize at the South African Futures Exchange. Furthermore, household food consumption is found to inversely track food prices in each country, decreasing when staple prices increase and increasing when they decline. Clearly, (excess) seasonality in African food markets and consumption persists, necessitating policy attention. 2014-06-25T21:56:37Z 2014-06-25T21:56:37Z 2014-06 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19616385/end-seasonality-new-insights-sub-saharan-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18771 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6907 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa Sub-Saharan Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE ARBITRAGE ARIMA AVERAGE PRICE BANANAS BARS BENCHMARK CAPITAL MARKETS CARROTS CASSAVA CEREALS COMMERCE COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICE CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION LEVELS COOKING COST OF CAPITAL CREDIT CONSTRAINTS DEBTS DEFLATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICE DURABLE GOODS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LITERATURE ENTRY POINTS EXCHANGE RATES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT MARKET FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS FLOUR FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD CROPS FOOD INTAKE FOOD MARKETS FOOD POLICY FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PRODUCTS FOOD SECURITY FOOD SHORTAGES FOOD STAPLES FOOD STORAGE FOOD TRANSFERS FOODS FRUITS FUTURES GAUGE GINI COEFFICIENT GRAINS GROUNDNUTS IMPERFECT COMPETITION INCOME INEQUALITY MEASURES INFLATION INTERNATIONAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION LIQUIDITY LOCAL CURRENCIES LOCAL CURRENCY MAIZE MARKET INTEGRATION MARKET POWER MARKET PRICE MARKET PRICES MARKET STRUCTURE MARKETING MARKETPLACE MARKETPLACES MOBILE PHONE MOBILE PHONES MONOPOLIES MORTGAGES OPPORTUNITY COST ORANGES PERISHABILITY PORK POTATOES PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND PRICE INDEX PRICE MOVEMENT PRICE MOVEMENTS PRICE RISK PRICE SERIES PRICE THEORY PRICE TRENDS PRICE VOLATILITY PRODUCT MARKET PRODUCTIVE ASSETS PULSES PURCHASING PURCHASING POWER RANDOM WALK RATE OF RETURN REGIONAL TRADE RETAIL RETAIL MARKETS RETAIL PRICES RICE SEASONAL FACTOR SEASONAL FACTORS SPREAD STAPLE FOODS STOCK EXCHANGE SUBSTITUTE SUBSTITUTION SUGAR SUPPLY INCREASES SWEET POTATOES THIRD WORLD TOMATOES TRANSACTION COSTS TROUGH TUBERS UNDUE INFLUENCE VEGETABLES VOLATILITY WHEAT WHEAT FLOUR WHOLESALE MARKETS WHOLESALE PRICE WHOLESALE PRICES WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS YAMS |
| spellingShingle |
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE ARBITRAGE ARIMA AVERAGE PRICE BANANAS BARS BENCHMARK CAPITAL MARKETS CARROTS CASSAVA CEREALS COMMERCE COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICE CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION LEVELS COOKING COST OF CAPITAL CREDIT CONSTRAINTS DEBTS DEFLATION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DOMESTIC MARKETS DOMESTIC PRICE DURABLE GOODS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LITERATURE ENTRY POINTS EXCHANGE RATES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT MARKET FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS FLOUR FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD CROPS FOOD INTAKE FOOD MARKETS FOOD POLICY FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PRODUCTS FOOD SECURITY FOOD SHORTAGES FOOD STAPLES FOOD STORAGE FOOD TRANSFERS FOODS FRUITS FUTURES GAUGE GINI COEFFICIENT GRAINS GROUNDNUTS IMPERFECT COMPETITION INCOME INEQUALITY MEASURES INFLATION INTERNATIONAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION LIQUIDITY LOCAL CURRENCIES LOCAL CURRENCY MAIZE MARKET INTEGRATION MARKET POWER MARKET PRICE MARKET PRICES MARKET STRUCTURE MARKETING MARKETPLACE MARKETPLACES MOBILE PHONE MOBILE PHONES MONOPOLIES MORTGAGES OPPORTUNITY COST ORANGES PERISHABILITY PORK POTATOES PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND PRICE INDEX PRICE MOVEMENT PRICE MOVEMENTS PRICE RISK PRICE SERIES PRICE THEORY PRICE TRENDS PRICE VOLATILITY PRODUCT MARKET PRODUCTIVE ASSETS PULSES PURCHASING PURCHASING POWER RANDOM WALK RATE OF RETURN REGIONAL TRADE RETAIL RETAIL MARKETS RETAIL PRICES RICE SEASONAL FACTOR SEASONAL FACTORS SPREAD STAPLE FOODS STOCK EXCHANGE SUBSTITUTE SUBSTITUTION SUGAR SUPPLY INCREASES SWEET POTATOES THIRD WORLD TOMATOES TRANSACTION COSTS TROUGH TUBERS UNDUE INFLUENCE VEGETABLES VOLATILITY WHEAT WHEAT FLOUR WHOLESALE MARKETS WHOLESALE PRICE WHOLESALE PRICES WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKETS YAMS Kaminski, Jonathan Christiaensen, Luc Gilbert, Christopher L. The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa |
| geographic_facet |
Africa Sub-Saharan Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6907 |
| description |
This paper revisits the extent of
seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared
from Africa's development debate. Through econometric
analysis of monthly food price series across 100 locations
in three countries during 2000-12, it is shown that seasonal
movements in maize wholesale prices explain 20 (Tanzania,
Uganda) to 40 (Malawi) percent of their monthly volatility.
Monthly maize peak prices are on average 30 (Tanzania,
Uganda) to 50 (Malawi) percent higher than their monthly
troughs and two to three times higher than the seasonal gaps
observed for white maize at the South African Futures
Exchange. Furthermore, household food consumption is found
to inversely track food prices in each country, decreasing
when staple prices increase and increasing when they
decline. Clearly, (excess) seasonality in African food
markets and consumption persists, necessitating policy attention. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Kaminski, Jonathan Christiaensen, Luc Gilbert, Christopher L. |
| author_facet |
Kaminski, Jonathan Christiaensen, Luc Gilbert, Christopher L. |
| author_sort |
Kaminski, Jonathan |
| title |
The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_short |
The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full |
The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_fullStr |
The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed |
The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_sort |
end of seasonality? new insights from sub-saharan africa |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19616385/end-seasonality-new-insights-sub-saharan-africa http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18771 |
| _version_ |
1764442655061704704 |