Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation : Global Analysis of the Resilience of International River Treaties to Increased Water Variability
Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropri...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19646108/climate-change-conflict-cooperation-global-analysis-resilience-international-river-treaties-increased-water-variability http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18763 |
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okr-10986-187632021-04-23T14:03:49Z Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation : Global Analysis of the Resilience of International River Treaties to Increased Water Variability Dinar, Shlomi Katz, David De Stefano, Lucia Blankespoor, Brian ALLOCATION AGREEMENTS ALLOCATION OF WATER ANNUAL PRECIPITATION ANNUAL RUNOFF AUGMENTATION AVAILABLE WATER CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATES CONFLICT RESOLUTION MECHANISM CONFLICT RESOLUTION MECHANISMS COVERING DESALINATION DROUGHT ENFORCEMENT MECHANISMS ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES FLOOD RISK FLOODING FLOODS FRESH WATER FRESHWATER FRESHWATER RESOURCES HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS HYDROLOGY INTERNATIONAL RIVER BASINS INTERNATIONAL WATER INTERNATIONAL WATERS INVESTMENT DECISIONS IRRIGATION MEDIATION NATURAL RESOURCES OPEN ACCESS POLLUTION CONTROL POPULATION GROWTH RIVER RIVER BASIN RIVER BASINS RIVER FLOW RIVERS SCARCE WATER SCARCE WATER RESOURCES STORAGE CAPACITY STREAMFLOW TRANSBOUNDARY WATERS TREATIES WASTEWATER WATER ALLOCATION WATER ALLOCATION ISSUES WATER ALLOCATIONS WATER AVAILABILITY WATER FLOWS WATER INFRASTRUCTURE WATER LAW WATER MANAGEMENT WATER MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES WATER POLICY WATER POLLUTION WATER QUALITY WATER QUANTITY WATER RESOURCE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT WATER SCARCITY WATER SUPPLY Although water variability has already been observed across river basins, climate change is predicted to increase variability. Such environmental changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in regions that are not equipped with an appropriate institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also likely to challenge regions with existing institutional capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess the ability of states to deal with variability in the future rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past. The paper investigates to what extent particular mechanisms and institutional designs help mitigate inter-country tensions over shared water. The analysis specifically focuses on identifying which water allocation mechanisms and institutional features provide better opportunities for mitigating conflict given that water allocation issues tend to be most salient among riparians. Water-related events from the Basins at Risk events database are used as the dependent variable to test hypotheses regarding the viability, or resilience, of treaties over time. Climatic, geographic, political, and economic variables are used as controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948-2001 with the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings pertaining to the primary explanatory variables suggest that country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although certain institutional mechanisms are more important than others. 2014-06-25T21:20:46Z 2014-06-25T21:20:46Z 2014-06 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19646108/climate-change-conflict-cooperation-global-analysis-resilience-international-river-treaties-increased-water-variability http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18763 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6916 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ALLOCATION AGREEMENTS ALLOCATION OF WATER ANNUAL PRECIPITATION ANNUAL RUNOFF AUGMENTATION AVAILABLE WATER CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATES CONFLICT RESOLUTION MECHANISM CONFLICT RESOLUTION MECHANISMS COVERING DESALINATION DROUGHT ENFORCEMENT MECHANISMS ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES FLOOD RISK FLOODING FLOODS FRESH WATER FRESHWATER FRESHWATER RESOURCES HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS HYDROLOGY INTERNATIONAL RIVER BASINS INTERNATIONAL WATER INTERNATIONAL WATERS INVESTMENT DECISIONS IRRIGATION MEDIATION NATURAL RESOURCES OPEN ACCESS POLLUTION CONTROL POPULATION GROWTH RIVER RIVER BASIN RIVER BASINS RIVER FLOW RIVERS SCARCE WATER SCARCE WATER RESOURCES STORAGE CAPACITY STREAMFLOW TRANSBOUNDARY WATERS TREATIES WASTEWATER WATER ALLOCATION WATER ALLOCATION ISSUES WATER ALLOCATIONS WATER AVAILABILITY WATER FLOWS WATER INFRASTRUCTURE WATER LAW WATER MANAGEMENT WATER MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES WATER POLICY WATER POLLUTION WATER QUALITY WATER QUANTITY WATER RESOURCE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT WATER SCARCITY WATER SUPPLY |
| spellingShingle |
ALLOCATION AGREEMENTS ALLOCATION OF WATER ANNUAL PRECIPITATION ANNUAL RUNOFF AUGMENTATION AVAILABLE WATER CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABILITY CLIMATES CONFLICT RESOLUTION MECHANISM CONFLICT RESOLUTION MECHANISMS COVERING DESALINATION DROUGHT ENFORCEMENT MECHANISMS ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES FLOOD RISK FLOODING FLOODS FRESH WATER FRESHWATER FRESHWATER RESOURCES HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS HYDROLOGY INTERNATIONAL RIVER BASINS INTERNATIONAL WATER INTERNATIONAL WATERS INVESTMENT DECISIONS IRRIGATION MEDIATION NATURAL RESOURCES OPEN ACCESS POLLUTION CONTROL POPULATION GROWTH RIVER RIVER BASIN RIVER BASINS RIVER FLOW RIVERS SCARCE WATER SCARCE WATER RESOURCES STORAGE CAPACITY STREAMFLOW TRANSBOUNDARY WATERS TREATIES WASTEWATER WATER ALLOCATION WATER ALLOCATION ISSUES WATER ALLOCATIONS WATER AVAILABILITY WATER FLOWS WATER INFRASTRUCTURE WATER LAW WATER MANAGEMENT WATER MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES WATER POLICY WATER POLLUTION WATER QUALITY WATER QUANTITY WATER RESOURCE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT WATER SCARCITY WATER SUPPLY Dinar, Shlomi Katz, David De Stefano, Lucia Blankespoor, Brian Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation : Global Analysis of the Resilience of International River Treaties to Increased Water Variability |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6916 |
| description |
Although water variability has already
been observed across river basins, climate change is
predicted to increase variability. Such environmental
changes may aggravate political tensions, especially in
regions that are not equipped with an appropriate
institutional apparatus. Increased variability is also
likely to challenge regions with existing institutional
capacity. This paper argues that the best attempts to assess
the ability of states to deal with variability in the future
rest with considering how agreements have fared in the past.
The paper investigates to what extent particular mechanisms
and institutional designs help mitigate inter-country
tensions over shared water. The analysis specifically
focuses on identifying which water allocation mechanisms and
institutional features provide better opportunities for
mitigating conflict given that water allocation issues tend
to be most salient among riparians. Water-related events
from the Basins at Risk events database are used as the
dependent variable to test hypotheses regarding the
viability, or resilience, of treaties over time. Climatic,
geographic, political, and economic variables are used as
controls. The analysis is conducted for the years 1948-2001
with the country dyad as the level of observation. Findings
pertaining to the primary explanatory variables suggest that
country dyads governed by treaties with water allocation
mechanisms exhibiting both flexibility and specificity
evince more cooperative behavior. Country dyads governed by
treaties with a larger sum of institutional mechanisms
likewise evince a higher level of cooperation, although
certain institutional mechanisms are more important than others. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Dinar, Shlomi Katz, David De Stefano, Lucia Blankespoor, Brian |
| author_facet |
Dinar, Shlomi Katz, David De Stefano, Lucia Blankespoor, Brian |
| author_sort |
Dinar, Shlomi |
| title |
Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation : Global Analysis of the Resilience of International River Treaties to Increased Water Variability |
| title_short |
Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation : Global Analysis of the Resilience of International River Treaties to Increased Water Variability |
| title_full |
Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation : Global Analysis of the Resilience of International River Treaties to Increased Water Variability |
| title_fullStr |
Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation : Global Analysis of the Resilience of International River Treaties to Increased Water Variability |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation : Global Analysis of the Resilience of International River Treaties to Increased Water Variability |
| title_sort |
climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19646108/climate-change-conflict-cooperation-global-analysis-resilience-international-river-treaties-increased-water-variability http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18763 |
| _version_ |
1764442631645954048 |