Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth

The authors examine the impact of income growth on the death rate due to traffic fatalities, as well as on fatalities per motor vehicle and on the motorization rate (vehicles/population) using panel data from 1963-99 for 88 countries. Specifically,...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Kopits, Elizabeth, Cropper, Maureen
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	ABSOLUTE VALUE AUTOMOBILE FLEET AUTOMOBILE FORECASTS AUTOMOBILES AVERAGE ANNUAL BUSES COMMERCIAL VEHICLES COUNTRY DUMMY COUNTRY-SPECIFIC INTERCEPT COUNTRY-SPECIFIC INTERCEPTS DECREASING RATE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMIC GROWTH ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF MOTORIZATION EMPIRICAL RESULTS ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS EQUATIONS EXPLANATORY VARIABLES EXTERNALITIES EXTERNALITY FATALITIES FATALITIES PER KILOMETER FATALITIES PER VEHICLE FATALITY RATES FATALITY RISK FORECASTS FUNCTIONAL FORM GDP GROWTH IN MOTORIZATION GROWTH IN VEHICLE OWNERSHIP GROWTH RATES HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME INCOME ELASTICITY INCOME ELASTICITY OF DEMAND INCOME GROUPS INCOME LEVEL INCOME LEVELS LIFE EXPECTANCY LIGHT TRUCKS LOW INCOME MODEL ESTIMATION MOTOR VEHICLE COUNTS MOTOR VEHICLE FATALITY MOTOR VEHICLE FATALITY RATE MOTOR VEHICLE STOCK MOTOR VEHICLES MOTORIZATION EQUATION MOTORIZATION RATE MOTORIZATION RATES NATURAL LOGARITHM PASSENGER PASSENGER CARS PATTERN OF TRAFFIC FATALITIES PEDESTRIANS PER CAPITA INCOME PER CAPITA INCOMES PERSONAL TRAVEL POLICY RESEARCH POLLUTION POPULATION GROWTH REGIONAL GROWTH REGRESSION RESULTS ROAD DEATHS ROAD SAFETY ROAD TRAFFIC ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS ROAD TRAFFIC FATALITIES ROADS TOTAL VEHICLE FLEET TRAFFIC TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS TRAFFIC DEATH TRAFFIC DEATHS TRAFFIC FATALITIES TRAFFIC FATALITIES ASSUMPTIONS TRAFFIC FATALITIES BY REGION TRAFFIC FATALITIES PER PERSON TRAFFIC FATALITY TRAFFIC FATALITY RATES TRUCKS VEHICLE FLEETS VEHICLE OWNERSHIP VEHICLE OWNERSHIP PER CAPITA VEHICLE PASSENGERS VEHICLE PER PERSON VEHICLE SAFETY VEHICLES WATER POLLUTION TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS TRAFFIC MONITORING REPORTING WATER POLLUTION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/04/2329628/traffic-fatalities-economic-growth http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18267

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Summary:	The authors examine the impact of income growth on the death rate due to traffic fatalities, as well as on fatalities per motor vehicle and on the motorization rate (vehicles/population) using panel data from 1963-99 for 88 countries. Specifically, they estimate fixed effects models for fatalities/population, vehicles/population, and fatalities/vehicles and use these models to project traffic fatalities and the stock of motor vehicles to 2020.The relationship between motor vehicle fatality rate and per capita income at first increases with per capita income, reaches a peak, and then declines. This is because at low income levels the rate of increase in motor vehicles outpaces the decline in fatalities per motor vehicle. At higher income levels, the reverse occurs. The income level at which per capita traffic fatalities peaks is approximately $8,600 in 1985 international dollars. This is within the range of income at which other externalities, such as air and water pollution, have been found to peak. Projections of future traffic fatalities suggest that the global road death toll will grow by approximately 66 percent between 2000 and 2020. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world-a decline in fatalities in high-income countries of approximately 28 percent versus an increase in fatalities of almost 92 percent in China and 147 percent in India. The authors also predict that the fatality rate will rise to approximately 2 per 10,000 persons in developing countries by 2020, while it will fall to less than 1 per 10,000 in high-income countries.

Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth

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