Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Three-Gap Framework

The author presents an internally consistent macroeconomic framework that could be used as a first step toward a more comprehensive, quantitative and qualitative assessment of the adjustment alternatives facing Uzbekistan. The three-gap framework f...

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Main Author:	Ranaweera, Thilak
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING ADJUSTMENT POLICIES ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BENCHMARKS BUDGET DEFICIT BUDGET DEFICITS CAPITAL FLIGHT CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL GRANTS CENTRAL BANK COMMERCIAL BORROWING CONDITIONALITY CONSOLIDATION CONSUMPTION FUNCTION CURRENT EXPENDITURES DEBT DEVALUATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISINFLATION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPECTED VALUES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORTS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL POLICIES FINANCIAL SECTOR FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL OPERATIONS FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE GDP GDP DEFLATOR GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INDUSTRIALIZATION INFLATION INFLATION RATES INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARDS M2 MACROECONOMIC MODELS MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MACROECONOMICS MARKET PRICES MONETARY POLICIES POLICY ENVIRONMENT POLICY MAKERS POLICY PACKAGE PRIVATE BORROWING PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATIZATION PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR DEFICITS REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REAL GROWTH REAL INTEREST RATE REAL TERMS RELATIVE VALUE RESERVE REQUIREMENTS SAVINGS SOCIAL COSTS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT TAX REVENUE TRADE BALANCE TRADE REGIME TRANSITION ECONOMIES WELFARE EFFECTS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT POLICY FRAMEWORK QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS WELFARE ECONOMICS ADJUSTMENT POLICY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS EXCHANGE RATE UNIFICATION CURRENT ACCOUNT CONVERTIBILITY EXTERNAL FINANCE WELFARE EFFECTS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/10/2579639/alternative-paths-structural-adjustment-uzbekistan-three-gap-framework http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18036

id	okr-10986-18036
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-180362021-04-23T14:03:41Z Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Three-Gap Framework Ranaweera, Thilak ACCOUNTING ADJUSTMENT POLICIES ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BENCHMARKS BUDGET DEFICIT BUDGET DEFICITS CAPITAL FLIGHT CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL GRANTS CENTRAL BANK COMMERCIAL BORROWING CONDITIONALITY CONSOLIDATION CONSUMPTION FUNCTION CURRENT EXPENDITURES DEBT DEVALUATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISINFLATION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPECTED VALUES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORTS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL POLICIES FINANCIAL SECTOR FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL OPERATIONS FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE GDP GDP DEFLATOR GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INDUSTRIALIZATION INFLATION INFLATION RATES INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARDS M2 MACROECONOMIC MODELS MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MACROECONOMICS MARKET PRICES MONETARY POLICIES POLICY ENVIRONMENT POLICY MAKERS POLICY PACKAGE PRIVATE BORROWING PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATIZATION PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR DEFICITS REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REAL GROWTH REAL INTEREST RATE REAL TERMS RELATIVE VALUE RESERVE REQUIREMENTS SAVINGS SOCIAL COSTS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT TAX REVENUE TRADE BALANCE TRADE REGIME TRANSITION ECONOMIES WELFARE EFFECTS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT POLICY FRAMEWORK QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS ECONOMIC GROWTH WELFARE ECONOMICS ADJUSTMENT POLICY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS EXCHANGE RATE UNIFICATION CURRENT ACCOUNT CONVERTIBILITY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EXTERNAL FINANCE WELFARE EFFECTS The author presents an internally consistent macroeconomic framework that could be used as a first step toward a more comprehensive, quantitative and qualitative assessment of the adjustment alternatives facing Uzbekistan. The three-gap framework focuses on the major imbalances of the economy for evaluating policy choices facing Uzbekistan. It emphasizes the domestic, and external factors that determine economic outcomes, and welfare. The author attempts to quantify two policy scenarios-gradual as against an accelerated policy implementation strategy. He finds that an aggressive adjustment policy would indeed improve most performance, and welfare indicators. Two major ingredients of such an aggressive adjustment strategy are the unification of the exchange rate, and implementation of current account convertibility in the balance of payments. The author also draws attention to the relative importance of external financing, and the sustainability of the balance of payments under alternative structural adjustment paths facing Uzbekistan. 2014-04-25T14:22:08Z 2014-04-25T14:22:08Z 2003-10 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/10/2579639/alternative-paths-structural-adjustment-uzbekistan-three-gap-framework http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18036 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3145 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Europe and Central Asia Uzbekistan
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	ACCOUNTING ADJUSTMENT POLICIES ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BENCHMARKS BUDGET DEFICIT BUDGET DEFICITS CAPITAL FLIGHT CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL GRANTS CENTRAL BANK COMMERCIAL BORROWING CONDITIONALITY CONSOLIDATION CONSUMPTION FUNCTION CURRENT EXPENDITURES DEBT DEVALUATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISINFLATION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPECTED VALUES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORTS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL POLICIES FINANCIAL SECTOR FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL OPERATIONS FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE GDP GDP DEFLATOR GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INDUSTRIALIZATION INFLATION INFLATION RATES INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARDS M2 MACROECONOMIC MODELS MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MACROECONOMICS MARKET PRICES MONETARY POLICIES POLICY ENVIRONMENT POLICY MAKERS POLICY PACKAGE PRIVATE BORROWING PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATIZATION PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR DEFICITS REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REAL GROWTH REAL INTEREST RATE REAL TERMS RELATIVE VALUE RESERVE REQUIREMENTS SAVINGS SOCIAL COSTS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT TAX REVENUE TRADE BALANCE TRADE REGIME TRANSITION ECONOMIES WELFARE EFFECTS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT POLICY FRAMEWORK QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS ECONOMIC GROWTH WELFARE ECONOMICS ADJUSTMENT POLICY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS EXCHANGE RATE UNIFICATION CURRENT ACCOUNT CONVERTIBILITY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EXTERNAL FINANCE WELFARE EFFECTS
spellingShingle	ACCOUNTING ADJUSTMENT POLICIES ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BENCHMARKS BUDGET DEFICIT BUDGET DEFICITS CAPITAL FLIGHT CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL GRANTS CENTRAL BANK COMMERCIAL BORROWING CONDITIONALITY CONSOLIDATION CONSUMPTION FUNCTION CURRENT EXPENDITURES DEBT DEVALUATION DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISINFLATION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPECTED VALUES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORTS FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL POLICIES FINANCIAL SECTOR FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL OPERATIONS FOREIGN CAPITAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE GDP GDP DEFLATOR GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS NATIONAL SAVINGS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES IMPORTS INCOME INCOME GROUPS INDUSTRIALIZATION INFLATION INFLATION RATES INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND LIQUIDITY LIVING STANDARDS M2 MACROECONOMIC MODELS MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MACROECONOMICS MARKET PRICES MONETARY POLICIES POLICY ENVIRONMENT POLICY MAKERS POLICY PACKAGE PRIVATE BORROWING PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATIZATION PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC POLICY PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR DEFICITS REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REAL GROWTH REAL INTEREST RATE REAL TERMS RELATIVE VALUE RESERVE REQUIREMENTS SAVINGS SOCIAL COSTS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT TAX REVENUE TRADE BALANCE TRADE REGIME TRANSITION ECONOMIES WELFARE EFFECTS STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT POLICY FRAMEWORK QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS ECONOMIC GROWTH WELFARE ECONOMICS ADJUSTMENT POLICY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS EXCHANGE RATE UNIFICATION CURRENT ACCOUNT CONVERTIBILITY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EXTERNAL FINANCE WELFARE EFFECTS Ranaweera, Thilak Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Three-Gap Framework
geographic_facet	Europe and Central Asia Uzbekistan
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3145
description	The author presents an internally consistent macroeconomic framework that could be used as a first step toward a more comprehensive, quantitative and qualitative assessment of the adjustment alternatives facing Uzbekistan. The three-gap framework focuses on the major imbalances of the economy for evaluating policy choices facing Uzbekistan. It emphasizes the domestic, and external factors that determine economic outcomes, and welfare. The author attempts to quantify two policy scenarios-gradual as against an accelerated policy implementation strategy. He finds that an aggressive adjustment policy would indeed improve most performance, and welfare indicators. Two major ingredients of such an aggressive adjustment strategy are the unification of the exchange rate, and implementation of current account convertibility in the balance of payments. The author also draws attention to the relative importance of external financing, and the sustainability of the balance of payments under alternative structural adjustment paths facing Uzbekistan.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Ranaweera, Thilak
author_facet	Ranaweera, Thilak
author_sort	Ranaweera, Thilak
title	Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Three-Gap Framework
title_short	Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Three-Gap Framework
title_full	Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Three-Gap Framework
title_fullStr	Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Three-Gap Framework
title_full_unstemmed	Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Three-Gap Framework
title_sort	alternative paths to structural adjustment in uzbekistan in a three-gap framework
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/10/2579639/alternative-paths-structural-adjustment-uzbekistan-three-gap-framework http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18036
_version_	1764438733468205056

Alternative Paths to Structural Adjustment in Uzbekistan in a Three-Gap Framework

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