What Do We Know about Growth Patterns in Pakistan?
This paper explores stylized facts of Pakistan's growth patterns. It identifies the short-lived predominant character of its increasingly scarce growth accelerations, the average volatility of the growth rate by international standards, the hi...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/12/19311561/know-growth-patterns-pakistan http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17875 |
| Summary: | This paper explores stylized facts of
Pakistan's growth patterns. It identifies the
short-lived predominant character of its increasingly scarce
growth accelerations, the average volatility of the growth
rate by international standards, the high but decreasing
correlation between overall growth and agricultural growth,
the long term decline of its growth (potential) rate to
around 4.5 percent, well below the 6 percent rate of the
1960s or from the 7 percent rate required for absorbing the
young labor force. It also explores the dramatically steady
fall in productivity during the 2000s (measured by Total
Factor Productivity) and, to a lesser extent, capital
accumulation as main reasons of such decline. The paper
analyzes the role factor accumulation plays in long-term
labor reallocation across sectors, with industry stalling,
agriculture still playing a major role that goes beyond its
own contribution to GDP, and services playing an increasing
role in creating employment, but on low productivity jobs.
Growth acceleration is not assured and Pakistan will need to
create more jobs moving from agriculture to industry and
services in activities where productivity is higher, but to
do this, curbing the factors that constraint growth overall
and sectoral and Total Factor Productivity in particular
will be essential. |
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