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recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-156232021-04-23T14:03:20Z A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis Ouchi, Fumika ACCIDENTS ARITHMETIC BAYES THEOREM BAYESIAN ANALYSIS BAYESIAN STATISTICS CALCULATION CALIBRATION CONFIDENCE INTERVALS CORRELATIONS CYBERNETICS DECISION MAKING DECISION-MAKING DELPHI METHOD EXPERT JUDGMENT FORECASTS HYPOTHESIS TESTING LABORATORIES MATHEMATICAL METHODS MATHEMATICAL MODELING MATHEMATICS MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD METHODOLOGY OPERATIONS RESEARCH OPTIMIZATION POINT PROCESSES PRECISION PREDICTIONS PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PSYCHOLOGY PUBLIC HEALTH RADIATION RADIATION PROTECTION RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS RISK EVALUATION SAFETY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SIMULATION SOFTWARE PROGRAMS SYSTEMS THEORY TECHNIQUES WASTE Risk assessment is part of the decision making process in many fields of discipline, such as engineering, public health, environment, program management, regulatory policy, and finance. There has been considerable debate over the philosophical and methodological treatment of risk in the past few decades, ranging from its definition and classification to methods of its assessment. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) specifically deals with events represented by low probabilities of occurring with high levels of unfavorable consequences. Expert judgment is often a critical source of information in PRA, since empirical data on the variables of interest are rarely available. The author reviews the literature on the use of expert opinion in PRA, in particular on the approaches to eliciting and aggregating experts' assessments. The literature suggests that the methods by which expert opinions are collected and combined have a significant effect on the resulting estimates. The author discusses two types of approaches to eliciting and aggregating expert judgments-behavioral and mathematical approaches, with the emphasis on the latter. It is generally agreed that mathematical approaches tend to yield more accurate estimates than behavioral approaches. After a short description of behavioral approaches, the author discusses mathematical approaches in detail, presenting three aggregation models: non-Bayesian axiomatic models, Bayesian models, and psychological scaling models. She also discusses issues of stochastic dependence. 2013-09-04T20:43:16Z 2013-09-04T20:43:16Z 2004-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/01/3169814/literature-review-use-expert-opinion-probabilistic-risk-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15623 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3201 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
en_US
topic ACCIDENTS
ARITHMETIC
BAYES THEOREM
BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
BAYESIAN STATISTICS
CALCULATION
CALIBRATION
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
CORRELATIONS
CYBERNETICS
DECISION MAKING
DECISION-MAKING
DELPHI METHOD
EXPERT JUDGMENT
FORECASTS
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
LABORATORIES
MATHEMATICAL METHODS
MATHEMATICAL MODELING
MATHEMATICS
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD
METHODOLOGY
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
OPTIMIZATION
POINT PROCESSES
PRECISION
PREDICTIONS
PROBABILITIES
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
PSYCHOLOGY
PUBLIC HEALTH
RADIATION
RADIATION PROTECTION
RELIABILITY
RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS
RISK EVALUATION
SAFETY
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SIMULATION
SOFTWARE PROGRAMS
SYSTEMS THEORY
TECHNIQUES
WASTE
spellingShingle ACCIDENTS
ARITHMETIC
BAYES THEOREM
BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
BAYESIAN STATISTICS
CALCULATION
CALIBRATION
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
CORRELATIONS
CYBERNETICS
DECISION MAKING
DECISION-MAKING
DELPHI METHOD
EXPERT JUDGMENT
FORECASTS
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
LABORATORIES
MATHEMATICAL METHODS
MATHEMATICAL MODELING
MATHEMATICS
MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD
METHODOLOGY
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
OPTIMIZATION
POINT PROCESSES
PRECISION
PREDICTIONS
PROBABILITIES
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
PSYCHOLOGY
PUBLIC HEALTH
RADIATION
RADIATION PROTECTION
RELIABILITY
RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS
RISK EVALUATION
SAFETY
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SIMULATION
SOFTWARE PROGRAMS
SYSTEMS THEORY
TECHNIQUES
WASTE
Ouchi, Fumika
A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3201
description Risk assessment is part of the decision making process in many fields of discipline, such as engineering, public health, environment, program management, regulatory policy, and finance. There has been considerable debate over the philosophical and methodological treatment of risk in the past few decades, ranging from its definition and classification to methods of its assessment. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) specifically deals with events represented by low probabilities of occurring with high levels of unfavorable consequences. Expert judgment is often a critical source of information in PRA, since empirical data on the variables of interest are rarely available. The author reviews the literature on the use of expert opinion in PRA, in particular on the approaches to eliciting and aggregating experts' assessments. The literature suggests that the methods by which expert opinions are collected and combined have a significant effect on the resulting estimates. The author discusses two types of approaches to eliciting and aggregating expert judgments-behavioral and mathematical approaches, with the emphasis on the latter. It is generally agreed that mathematical approaches tend to yield more accurate estimates than behavioral approaches. After a short description of behavioral approaches, the author discusses mathematical approaches in detail, presenting three aggregation models: non-Bayesian axiomatic models, Bayesian models, and psychological scaling models. She also discusses issues of stochastic dependence.
format Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author Ouchi, Fumika
author_facet Ouchi, Fumika
author_sort Ouchi, Fumika
title A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis
title_short A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis
title_full A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis
title_fullStr A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis
title_full_unstemmed A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis
title_sort literature review on the use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk analysis
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2013
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/01/3169814/literature-review-use-expert-opinion-probabilistic-risk-analysis
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15623
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