A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Risk assessment is part of the decision making process in many fields of discipline, such as engineering, public health, environment, program management, regulatory policy, and finance. There has been considerable debate over the philosophical and...
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okr-10986-156232021-04-23T14:03:20Z A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis Ouchi, Fumika ACCIDENTS ARITHMETIC BAYES THEOREM BAYESIAN ANALYSIS BAYESIAN STATISTICS CALCULATION CALIBRATION CONFIDENCE INTERVALS CORRELATIONS CYBERNETICS DECISION MAKING DECISION-MAKING DELPHI METHOD EXPERT JUDGMENT FORECASTS HYPOTHESIS TESTING LABORATORIES MATHEMATICAL METHODS MATHEMATICAL MODELING MATHEMATICS MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD METHODOLOGY OPERATIONS RESEARCH OPTIMIZATION POINT PROCESSES PRECISION PREDICTIONS PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PSYCHOLOGY PUBLIC HEALTH RADIATION RADIATION PROTECTION RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS RISK EVALUATION SAFETY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SIMULATION SOFTWARE PROGRAMS SYSTEMS THEORY TECHNIQUES WASTE Risk assessment is part of the decision making process in many fields of discipline, such as engineering, public health, environment, program management, regulatory policy, and finance. There has been considerable debate over the philosophical and methodological treatment of risk in the past few decades, ranging from its definition and classification to methods of its assessment. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) specifically deals with events represented by low probabilities of occurring with high levels of unfavorable consequences. Expert judgment is often a critical source of information in PRA, since empirical data on the variables of interest are rarely available. The author reviews the literature on the use of expert opinion in PRA, in particular on the approaches to eliciting and aggregating experts' assessments. The literature suggests that the methods by which expert opinions are collected and combined have a significant effect on the resulting estimates. The author discusses two types of approaches to eliciting and aggregating expert judgments-behavioral and mathematical approaches, with the emphasis on the latter. It is generally agreed that mathematical approaches tend to yield more accurate estimates than behavioral approaches. After a short description of behavioral approaches, the author discusses mathematical approaches in detail, presenting three aggregation models: non-Bayesian axiomatic models, Bayesian models, and psychological scaling models. She also discusses issues of stochastic dependence. 2013-09-04T20:43:16Z 2013-09-04T20:43:16Z 2004-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/01/3169814/literature-review-use-expert-opinion-probabilistic-risk-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15623 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3201 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research |
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Foreign Institution |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
language |
English en_US |
topic |
ACCIDENTS ARITHMETIC BAYES THEOREM BAYESIAN ANALYSIS BAYESIAN STATISTICS CALCULATION CALIBRATION CONFIDENCE INTERVALS CORRELATIONS CYBERNETICS DECISION MAKING DECISION-MAKING DELPHI METHOD EXPERT JUDGMENT FORECASTS HYPOTHESIS TESTING LABORATORIES MATHEMATICAL METHODS MATHEMATICAL MODELING MATHEMATICS MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD METHODOLOGY OPERATIONS RESEARCH OPTIMIZATION POINT PROCESSES PRECISION PREDICTIONS PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PSYCHOLOGY PUBLIC HEALTH RADIATION RADIATION PROTECTION RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS RISK EVALUATION SAFETY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SIMULATION SOFTWARE PROGRAMS SYSTEMS THEORY TECHNIQUES WASTE |
spellingShingle |
ACCIDENTS ARITHMETIC BAYES THEOREM BAYESIAN ANALYSIS BAYESIAN STATISTICS CALCULATION CALIBRATION CONFIDENCE INTERVALS CORRELATIONS CYBERNETICS DECISION MAKING DECISION-MAKING DELPHI METHOD EXPERT JUDGMENT FORECASTS HYPOTHESIS TESTING LABORATORIES MATHEMATICAL METHODS MATHEMATICAL MODELING MATHEMATICS MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD METHODOLOGY OPERATIONS RESEARCH OPTIMIZATION POINT PROCESSES PRECISION PREDICTIONS PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION PSYCHOLOGY PUBLIC HEALTH RADIATION RADIATION PROTECTION RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS RISK EVALUATION SAFETY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SIMULATION SOFTWARE PROGRAMS SYSTEMS THEORY TECHNIQUES WASTE Ouchi, Fumika A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis |
relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 3201 |
description |
Risk assessment is part of the decision
making process in many fields of discipline, such as
engineering, public health, environment, program management,
regulatory policy, and finance. There has been considerable
debate over the philosophical and methodological treatment
of risk in the past few decades, ranging from its definition
and classification to methods of its assessment.
Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) specifically deals with
events represented by low probabilities of occurring with
high levels of unfavorable consequences. Expert judgment is
often a critical source of information in PRA, since
empirical data on the variables of interest are rarely
available. The author reviews the literature on the use of
expert opinion in PRA, in particular on the approaches to
eliciting and aggregating experts' assessments. The
literature suggests that the methods by which expert
opinions are collected and combined have a significant
effect on the resulting estimates. The author discusses two
types of approaches to eliciting and aggregating expert
judgments-behavioral and mathematical approaches, with the
emphasis on the latter. It is generally agreed that
mathematical approaches tend to yield more accurate
estimates than behavioral approaches. After a short
description of behavioral approaches, the author discusses
mathematical approaches in detail, presenting three
aggregation models: non-Bayesian axiomatic models, Bayesian
models, and psychological scaling models. She also discusses
issues of stochastic dependence. |
format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
author |
Ouchi, Fumika |
author_facet |
Ouchi, Fumika |
author_sort |
Ouchi, Fumika |
title |
A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis |
title_short |
A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis |
title_full |
A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis |
title_fullStr |
A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis |
title_sort |
literature review on the use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk analysis |
publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/01/3169814/literature-review-use-expert-opinion-probabilistic-risk-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15623 |
_version_ |
1764430115607937024 |