Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach

Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structu...

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Main Author:	Cuevas, Mario A.
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2013
Subjects:	IMPORT DEMAND; STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS; STOCHASTIC MODELS CD CENTRAL BANK COAL CURRENCY BOARDS CURRENCY RISK DECENTRALIZATION ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC STATISTICS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY EMERGING MARKETS ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EXCHANGE RATE EXPORTS FINANCIAL MARKETS GROWTH RATE IMPORTS INCOME NATURAL RESOURCES OIL POLICY RESEARCH PRIVATE INVESTMENT REAL APPRECIATION REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY REAL GDP TAX REFORM TELECOMMUNICATIONS TIME SERIES WEALTH
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/04/1769434/demand-imports-venezuela-structural-time-series-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14820

id	okr-10986-14820
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-148202021-04-23T14:03:20Z Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach Cuevas, Mario A. IMPORT DEMAND; STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS; STOCHASTIC MODELS CD CENTRAL BANK COAL CURRENCY BOARDS CURRENCY RISK DECENTRALIZATION ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC STATISTICS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY EMERGING MARKETS ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EXCHANGE RATE EXPORTS FINANCIAL MARKETS GROWTH RATE IMPORTS INCOME NATURAL RESOURCES OIL POLICY RESEARCH PRIVATE INVESTMENT REAL APPRECIATION REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY REAL GDP TAX REFORM TELECOMMUNICATIONS TIME SERIES WEALTH Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5-year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela. 2013-08-06T16:39:22Z 2013-08-06T16:39:22Z 2002-04 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/04/1769434/demand-imports-venezuela-structural-time-series-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14820 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No.2825 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Latin America & Caribbean Venezuela, Republica Bolivariana de
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	IMPORT DEMAND; STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS; STOCHASTIC MODELS CD CENTRAL BANK COAL CURRENCY BOARDS CURRENCY RISK DECENTRALIZATION ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC STATISTICS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY EMERGING MARKETS ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EXCHANGE RATE EXPORTS FINANCIAL MARKETS GROWTH RATE IMPORTS INCOME NATURAL RESOURCES OIL POLICY RESEARCH PRIVATE INVESTMENT REAL APPRECIATION REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY REAL GDP TAX REFORM TELECOMMUNICATIONS TIME SERIES WEALTH
spellingShingle	IMPORT DEMAND; STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS; STOCHASTIC MODELS CD CENTRAL BANK COAL CURRENCY BOARDS CURRENCY RISK DECENTRALIZATION ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC STATISTICS ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY EMERGING MARKETS ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EXCHANGE RATE EXPORTS FINANCIAL MARKETS GROWTH RATE IMPORTS INCOME NATURAL RESOURCES OIL POLICY RESEARCH PRIVATE INVESTMENT REAL APPRECIATION REAL EXCHANGE REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY REAL GDP TAX REFORM TELECOMMUNICATIONS TIME SERIES WEALTH Cuevas, Mario A. Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach
geographic_facet	Latin America & Caribbean Venezuela, Republica Bolivariana de
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No.2825
description	Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5 and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth. The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5-year cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle frequency is associated with the recurrence of external imbalances in Venezuela.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Cuevas, Mario A.
author_facet	Cuevas, Mario A.
author_sort	Cuevas, Mario A.
title	Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach
title_short	Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach
title_full	Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach
title_fullStr	Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach
title_full_unstemmed	Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach
title_sort	demand for imports in venezuela : a structural time series approach
publisher	World Bank, Washington, D.C.
publishDate	2013
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/04/1769434/demand-imports-venezuela-structural-time-series-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14820
_version_	1764429851751612416

Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach

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