Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform

An important area of research in recent years involves assessing the microeconomic implications of macro-level policies— particularly those related to international trade. While a wide range of research methodologies are available for assessing the...

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Main Authors:	Hertel, Thomas W., Reimer, Jeffrey J.
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, D.C. 2013
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING ADVERSE IMPACTS AGGREGATE DEMAND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL PROFITS AGRICULTURE CEREALS COMMODITIES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION PATTERNS CRITICAL SURVEY DEMAND CURVE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS ECONOMIC MECHANISMS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMICS ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL STUDIES EMPLOYMENT EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM PRICES EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FINANCIAL CRISIS FOREST FIRES FREE TRADE FUTURE RESEARCH GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS GOVERNMENT TRANSFER PAYMENTS HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLDS INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME EFFECT INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVELS INNOVATION INNOVATIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LABOR ALLOCATION LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS MARKET LIBERALIZATION MOTIVATION PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS PERMITS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY RESEARCH POVERTY ALLEVIATION POVERTY LINE PRICE CHANGES PRICE ELASTICITIES PRODUCTIVITY REAL INCOME REAL WAGES RURAL HOUSEHOLDS SIDE EFFECTS TAXATION TECHNICAL CHANGE TERMS OF TRADE TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE POLICIES TRADE REFORMS TRADE TAXES URBAN AREAS WAGE RATES WAGES WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/11/5509337/predicting-poverty-impacts-trade-reform http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14196

id	okr-10986-14196
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-141962021-04-23T14:03:21Z Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform Hertel, Thomas W. Reimer, Jeffrey J. ACCOUNTING ADVERSE IMPACTS AGGREGATE DEMAND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL PROFITS AGRICULTURE CEREALS COMMODITIES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION PATTERNS CRITICAL SURVEY DEMAND CURVE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS ECONOMIC MECHANISMS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMICS ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL STUDIES EMPLOYMENT EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM PRICES EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FINANCIAL CRISIS FOREST FIRES FREE TRADE FUTURE RESEARCH GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS GOVERNMENT TRANSFER PAYMENTS HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLDS INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME EFFECT INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVELS INNOVATION INNOVATIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LABOR ALLOCATION LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS MARKET LIBERALIZATION MOTIVATION PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS PERMITS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY RESEARCH POVERTY ALLEVIATION POVERTY LINE PRICE CHANGES PRICE ELASTICITIES PRODUCTIVITY REAL INCOME REAL WAGES RURAL HOUSEHOLDS SIDE EFFECTS TAXATION TECHNICAL CHANGE TERMS OF TRADE TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE POLICIES TRADE REFORMS TRADE TAXES URBAN AREAS WAGE RATES WAGES WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO An important area of research in recent years involves assessing the microeconomic implications of macro-level policies— particularly those related to international trade. While a wide range of research methodologies are available for assessing the microeconomic incidence of micro-policies, as well as for assessing the effect of macro-level policies on markets and broad groups of households, there is a gap when it comes to eliciting the disaggregated household and firm level effects of trade policies. Recent research addresses this knowledge gap and the present survey offers an overview of this literature. The preponderance of the evidence from the studies encompassed by this survey points to the dominance of earnings-side effects over consumption-side effects of trade reform. This is problematic, since household surveys are notable for their underreporting of income. From the perspective of the poor, it is the market for unskilled labor that is most important. The poverty effects of trade policy often hinge crucially on how well the increased demand for labor in one part of the economy is transmitted to the rest of the economy by way of increased wages, increased employment, or both. Further econometric research aimed at discriminating between competing factor mobility hypotheses is urgently needed. 2013-06-26T15:34:26Z 2013-06-26T15:34:26Z 2004-11 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/11/5509337/predicting-poverty-impacts-trade-reform http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14196 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No.3444 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, D.C. Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	ACCOUNTING ADVERSE IMPACTS AGGREGATE DEMAND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL PROFITS AGRICULTURE CEREALS COMMODITIES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION PATTERNS CRITICAL SURVEY DEMAND CURVE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS ECONOMIC MECHANISMS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMICS ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL STUDIES EMPLOYMENT EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM PRICES EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FINANCIAL CRISIS FOREST FIRES FREE TRADE FUTURE RESEARCH GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS GOVERNMENT TRANSFER PAYMENTS HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLDS INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME EFFECT INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVELS INNOVATION INNOVATIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LABOR ALLOCATION LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS MARKET LIBERALIZATION MOTIVATION PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS PERMITS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY RESEARCH POVERTY ALLEVIATION POVERTY LINE PRICE CHANGES PRICE ELASTICITIES PRODUCTIVITY REAL INCOME REAL WAGES RURAL HOUSEHOLDS SIDE EFFECTS TAXATION TECHNICAL CHANGE TERMS OF TRADE TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE POLICIES TRADE REFORMS TRADE TAXES URBAN AREAS WAGE RATES WAGES WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO
spellingShingle	ACCOUNTING ADVERSE IMPACTS AGGREGATE DEMAND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL PROFITS AGRICULTURE CEREALS COMMODITIES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION PATTERNS CRITICAL SURVEY DEMAND CURVE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS ECONOMIC MECHANISMS ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMICS ECONOMISTS ELASTICITY EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE EMPIRICAL STUDIES EMPLOYMENT EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM PRICES EXPENDITURES EXPORTS FINANCIAL CRISIS FOREST FIRES FREE TRADE FUTURE RESEARCH GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS GOVERNMENT TRANSFER PAYMENTS HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLDS INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME EFFECT INCOME INEQUALITY INCOME LEVELS INNOVATION INNOVATIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE LABOR ALLOCATION LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS MARKET LIBERALIZATION MOTIVATION PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS PERMITS POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY RESEARCH POVERTY ALLEVIATION POVERTY LINE PRICE CHANGES PRICE ELASTICITIES PRODUCTIVITY REAL INCOME REAL WAGES RURAL HOUSEHOLDS SIDE EFFECTS TAXATION TECHNICAL CHANGE TERMS OF TRADE TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE POLICIES TRADE REFORMS TRADE TAXES URBAN AREAS WAGE RATES WAGES WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO Hertel, Thomas W. Reimer, Jeffrey J. Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No.3444
description	An important area of research in recent years involves assessing the microeconomic implications of macro-level policies— particularly those related to international trade. While a wide range of research methodologies are available for assessing the microeconomic incidence of micro-policies, as well as for assessing the effect of macro-level policies on markets and broad groups of households, there is a gap when it comes to eliciting the disaggregated household and firm level effects of trade policies. Recent research addresses this knowledge gap and the present survey offers an overview of this literature. The preponderance of the evidence from the studies encompassed by this survey points to the dominance of earnings-side effects over consumption-side effects of trade reform. This is problematic, since household surveys are notable for their underreporting of income. From the perspective of the poor, it is the market for unskilled labor that is most important. The poverty effects of trade policy often hinge crucially on how well the increased demand for labor in one part of the economy is transmitted to the rest of the economy by way of increased wages, increased employment, or both. Further econometric research aimed at discriminating between competing factor mobility hypotheses is urgently needed.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Hertel, Thomas W. Reimer, Jeffrey J.
author_facet	Hertel, Thomas W. Reimer, Jeffrey J.
author_sort	Hertel, Thomas W.
title	Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform
title_short	Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform
title_full	Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform
title_fullStr	Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform
title_full_unstemmed	Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform
title_sort	predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform
publisher	World Bank, Washington, D.C.
publishDate	2013
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/11/5509337/predicting-poverty-impacts-trade-reform http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14196
_version_	1764430884968071168

Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform

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